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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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What a bunch of weenies on the overnights.

Even the most harden are longing for just something to track. Whiff out something that resembles snow and its a free for all. I hope something "big" (6"+) sedates in the next two weeks. In the interim the every six hour change in full force.

 

Hope eternal at least the signal is still there.    

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A bit of rain or mix at the beginning south of pike, but as the low develops the cold air really takes over.  We need to see confirmation from cmc and euro before getting too excited.

 

We need to see how things look in five days before getting too excited.   :)

 

Storm 1 is fraught with red flags.  Does it simply cut or perform as more classic SWFE?  Does it pop a secondary early enough to make it a 'young' coastal?  All three of those are possibilities.  At this point, C and NNE are situated nicely for whichever scenario unfolds.

 

Storm 2, the fact that GEFS and EPS are both suggestive of a storm is really nice to see.  Of course, we all know not to get too excited at this time-frame, but it bears watching.  I think a 'no-sh*t, Sherlock' observation is that we won't have a good handle on the second system until we know what the first is going to do.  And that one has lots of possible outcomes.

 

So, we sit and wait.  My snowblower still sits in the shed.

 

24.2/19

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Take that low over Cape Cod, MA and we are in business.

 

No take the Lowry the benchmark

 

 

Low

 

 

Sorry James, I pulled it too far west on the 6z GFS.  Ends up at 956mb over Quebec City.  That pressure seems reasonable, lol.

 

I'll try to get it into the right place next time.

 

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The idea we expressed yesterday of 1 storm instead of 2 typically happening looks to be correct. Because of that it may end up like a Dec 1992 deal. It's not often you see 2 storms , 2 days apart.

Haha this may end up being like Dec 1992 just because you often see one storm instead of two so close together?

All the globals and ensembles have it as two distinct shortwaves.

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You sure about that? Euro ENS have it as either Saturday or Monday.

 

I see what you're saying on the Mean there, good point.  But if you look at the individual 51 members, most of them have two different systems moving through just the timing is slightly different among them all so on the mean its quite blurry for like three days of lower pressures over New England.  I just doubt it would shake out like the mean in this particular case, seeing as all the individuals show some form of SWFE for the first system and then a more coastal reflection for the second one. 

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I see what you're saying on the Mean there, good point. But if you look at the individual 51 members, most of them have two different systems moving through just the timing is slightly different among them all so on the mean its quite blurry for like three days of lower pressures over New England. I just doubt it would shake out like the mean in this particular case, seeing as all the individuals show some form of SWFE for the first system and then a more coastal reflection for the second one.

It all depends on how much energy comes out of the sw...if all of it does the less likely a second system happens...

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