TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's a little warm for eastern NE to start.... But come on. That is still a huge hit even after a warm start. I'd also bet if it played out like that it would verify colder. 220 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice run. Talk to me in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's a little warm for eastern NE to start.... But come on. That is still a huge hit even after a warm start. I'd also bet if it played out like that it would verify colder. 220 hours out Verbatim, the Boston area south would pick up a few inches at the end. But as you said, it's still out 8-9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Certainly gives us one of the possible scenarios for the Saturday-Monday window. Ensembles have been showing several possible outcomes. Tons of timing differences with all the different ensemble members still remain. Obviously the 00z GFS is the weeniest solution but the pattern definitely is ripe for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice run. Talk to me in 5 days. I am thinking we have a grip on system 1 by Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Certainly gives us one of the possible scenarios for the Saturday-Monday window. Ensembles have been showing several possible outcomes. Tons of timing differences with all the different ensemble members still remain. Obviously the 00z GFS is the weeniest solution but the pattern definitely is ripe for something. just for fun thats a CT river special, Congrats Codfisherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Certainly gives us one of the possible scenarios for the Saturday-Monday window. Ensembles have been showing several possible outcomes. Tons of timing differences with all the different ensemble members still remain. Obviously the 00z GFS is the weeniest solution but the pattern definitely is ripe for something. just for fun thats a CT river special, Congrats Codfisherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 just for fun thats a CT river special, Congrats Codfisherman Yeah that's epic for MBY too lol. We'll see - pattern looks good. Let's hope we can get something to break in our direction. From a personal standpoint I can probably lock in the evolution of wave 1 on the GFS since I'll be up in N VT skiing - smoking cirrus the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 00z CMC isn't buying it. Cutter, with no indication of what the GFS is selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Just glad I stayed up to watch this come in. Love me some fantasy storms ,epic porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 yeah, i think this event's for real. the euro is likely to curl early for a few more cycles, while edging more commitment to m-b type system. but the question is, do the models focus on the first or the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 00z CMC isn't buying it. Cutter, with no indication of what the GFS is selling. the 12z did - explain that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 the 12z did - explain that. Later model, newer info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks like the GEFS still likes the Jan 11-12 storm. Members are near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Later model, newer info. Follow the ensembles this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Later model, newer info. yeah, new info into the gfs too, so which is right? ...no, your report holds little reason - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice chunk of cold air incoming after the storm passes. Regardless of storm track. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z CMC ensembles also show a coastal. Cold enough everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Jesus guys.....WTF did I just see on the GFS? No way that back to back S happens......rarely does..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Loved the porn though......pattern looks ripe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice. We've got a couple inches of solid ice. We tickled 32* here and then settled back to 30-31*. I don't think it's going away before the next event. If it doesn't, my driveway will be toast for the season. 29.9/20 Yeah I followed your lead and didn't snow blow the last storm! Unfortunately my 2WD friends are struggling to make it up. I think with the couple warm days this week we'll be ok. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 yeah, new info into the gfs too, so which is right? ...no, your report holds little reason - My "report" said the 00Z CMC showed a cutter, with no evidence of a coastal. How does that hold little reason? I wasn't saying whether either of them is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 focus on the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 focus on the first system. Be glad to. I'm just responding to those focused on the second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 My "report" said the 00Z CMC showed a cutter, with no evidence of a coastal. How does that hold little reason? I wasn't saying whether either of them is right. True, but usually, you're original dead-panned anti-thetic timing is a troll attempt. i could go out and find a model that 86'ed the 1978 event too why do that? duh. we know it might not happen. if not, cool - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Be glad to. I'm just responding to those focused on the second system. Op runs have been changing alot and will continue to change until they get a grasp of this pattern. The ensembles have been showing a coastal for a few runs now. 0z GGEM ensembles do have a coastal and it's cold. GEFS also has a coastal. EPS did also have a coastal. Look at the ensembles 5+ days out. Op runs will struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's a little warm for eastern NE to start.... But come on. That is still a huge hit even after a warm start. I'd also bet if it played out like that it would verify colder. 220 hours out It's not huge anywhere outside of the N ORH hills, monadnocks and the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Are the GFS ensembles still trying to regress the favorable pattern at the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GEFS day 15, still winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's not huge anywhere outside of the N ORH hills, monadnocks and the Berkshires.Ct River west WCT peeps might take issue with that verbatim 18-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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