PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDls5C4a_kU Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 33s 33 seconds ago Don't be fooled by above normal heights east- this is a cold pattern with a monster block over AK. #winteriscoming Yep starts day 9 - and runs through the end of the period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDls5C4a_kU Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 33s 33 seconds ago Don't be fooled by above normal heights east- this is a cold pattern with a monster block over AK. #winteriscoming Fiyahhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Epo drops like a rock on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Judah FTW?? Judah Cohen @judah47 55m 55 minutes ago @WeatherGeeker 06Z GFS is predicting that split! This is getting exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Judah FTW?? Judah Cohen @judah47 55m 55 minutes ago @WeatherGeeker 06Z GFS is predicting that split! This is getting exciting. That looks like congrats Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If it were a displacement we would be screwed, with it headed into Europe....but a split is optimal. Do you want a monster gyre over Quebec city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Ridge bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 PV seems to split on guidance around the 30th through the end of the period. Models have a giant split flow pattern evolving with a strong +PNA ridge into NW Canada and Alaska, with a low over the Baja, Peninsula or inland Mexico followed by troughing over the eastern US. However there is so much energy that spills through and around the ridge into southern Ontario and New England as well as the Great Lakes that LE occurs and shortwaves from arctic origins come and make a visit in New England, one is bound to go off into a monster nor'easter with pressures of 960mb or lower. It is bound to happen, just when I don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 PV seems to split on guidance around the 30th through the end of the period. Models have a giant split flow pattern evolving with a strong +PNA ridge into NW Canada and Alaska, with a low over the Baja, Peninsula or inland Mexico followed by troughing over the eastern US. However there is so much energy that spills through and around the ridge into southern Ontario and New England as well as the Great Lakes that LE occurs and shortwaves from arctic origins come and make a visit in New England, one is bound to go off into a monster nor'easter with pressures of 960mb or lower. It is bound to happen, just when I don't know yet. Yea, sooner or later there will be a catosphoric storm that paralyzes mankind for weeks ala 1888...wether it happens this century or the next, we just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GEFS are really gung ho on a +PNA through the end of the run. Hard not to like what they're selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yea, sooner or later there will be a catosphoric storm that paralyzes mankind for weeks ala 1888...wether it happens this century or the next, we just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 isotherm ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 isotherm ftw?grasshoppers who had patience knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 grasshoppers who had patience knewI was a bit late.Damn....Tom is an exceptional young meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Open the floodgates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If that happens and it now appears likely, those forecasts of mid and late Jan pattern change to cold are in deep deep trouble . Then we are left with 28 days in Feb to hope we salvage a bit of winteryou are half right, the pattern change is first week of Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 you are half right, the pattern change is first week of Jan It's a Philadelphia Phillies 2009 Phail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 you are half right, the pattern change is first week of JanI had second or third week.Never been happier to miss an outlook by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I had second or third week. Never been happier to miss an outlook by a bit. another great EPS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Nice weenie GFS 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I had second or third week. Never been happier to miss an outlook by a bit. Considering when you made your outlook being off by one or two weeks is pretty sweetHope it comes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 No I am saying that the pattern favors a monster storm this next 14 day period. Models are confused with the amount of energy spilling over the monster ridge in the western NOAM region. It originates from the arctic circle, so temps will be cold enough, just track of storm is in question. 18z GFS had a mainly rain storm on the 1st of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I don't think it favors that. Is there a small chance? Maybe. But not >50% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 How's NYE storm look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm not sold on a -AO. Maybe fleeting moments but the ensembles are still not gung ho on the idea. The +PNA pattern is pretty solid. But I'd still throw caution flags on the AO as NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm not sold on a -AO. Maybe fleeting moments but the ensembles are still not gung ho on the idea. The +PNA pattern is pretty solid. But I'd still throw caution flags on the AO as NAO. It's a matter of when imho, not if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 No I am saying that the pattern favors a monster storm this next 14 day period. Models are confused with the amount of energy spilling over the monster ridge in the western NOAM region. It originates from the arctic circle, so temps will be cold enough, just track of storm is in question. 18z GFS had a mainly rain storm on the 1st of Jan. Dood, we all love your enthusiasm but you can't throw out words like you do and expect peeps to take you seriously. You're better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 How's NYE storm look? A brush of R- on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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