Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I think the standard deviation for december is higher.  March 2012 might be the highest of them all.

 

February 2015 was more anomalous on a standard dev level since February at BOS/ORH has about 0.3-0.4F less for a standard dev than December.

 

I'm not sure for other sites, but I know in SNE, December has a higher standard dev than February.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4-9" N of I84 is a massacre?

 

Nice storm threat.

 

For Mass. Here's how I break it down using the 18z gfs Precip map:

 

Hr 186 -     .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would  = 5 inches

hr  189 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  192 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  195 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  198   -   .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  201  -    .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 5 inches

hr 204   -     .25" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 2.5 inches 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals      4.25" of QPF giving Most of Mass 42.5 inches.

 

If I'm wrong, tell me how you would do the math. I'd love to learn.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Mass. Here's how I break it down using the 18z gfs Precip map:

 

Hr 186 -     .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would  = 5 inches

hr  189 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  192 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  195 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  198   -   .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  201  -    .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 5 inches

hr 204   -     .25" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 2.5 inches 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals      4.25" of QPF giving Most of Mass 42.5 inches.

 

If I'm wrong, tell me how you would do the math. I'd love to learn.   

I don't know what you looked at, but I see nothing like that on wxbell.

I hope to hell you are right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know what you looked at, but I see nothing like that on wxbell.

I hope to hell you are right.

Here's where I'm getting the depictions. It's the NOAA site:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=186&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=192&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_198_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=198&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_201_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=201&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Mass. Here's how I break it down using the 18z gfs Precip map:

 

Hr 186 -     .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would  = 5 inches

hr  189 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  192 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  195 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  198   -   .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  201  -    .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 5 inches

hr 204   -     .25" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 2.5 inches 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals      4.25" of QPF giving Most of Mass 42.5 inches.

 

If I'm wrong, tell me how you would do the math. I'd love to learn.   

 

 

I think you're overlapping. The precip is probably 6 and/or 12-hour precip, not 3-hour precip. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's where I'm getting the depictions. It's the NOAA site:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=186&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=192&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_198_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=198&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_201_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=201&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

Randy do yourself a favor and bookmark this, does the math for you

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIJD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...