40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Man, this is what the sne subforum is all about....everyone brought their "A" game today....no personal attacks, no insults, just great debate wrapped in cold, hard science. Kev, Scooter, Ryan, Tom, Doug, Will....everyone brought it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 December 2015 was basically like taking the worst parts of El Niño and La Niña and combining them. It had this big La Niña looking Aleutian ridge but also a raging PAC jet to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Man, this is what the sne subforum is all about....everyone brought their "A" game today....no personal attacks, no insults, just great debate wrapped in cold, hard science. Kev, Scooter, Ryan, Tom, Doug, Will....everyone brought it. Yeah it was a great read. Thank you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Man, this is what the sne subforum is all about....everyone brought their "A" game today....no personal attacks, no insults, just great debate wrapped in cold, hard science. Kev, Scooter, Ryan, Tom, Doug, Will....everyone brought it. yes, nice discussion, better LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 And this stuff is free. I've learned more in 1 year here than 10 years in other forums. Thanks folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It seems like a slam dunk that February would be the best month relatively speaking.... but "relatively speaking" right now isn't carrying much weight with how horrific December has gone. Who knows how January plays out, but say February delivers 20" of snowfall over the course of the month, after very little in December and still low totals in January (hypothetically speaking obviously). February can definitely be the coldest and snowiest month of the winter, but I think the real question will be is it something that's remembered fondly or is it more of a "winter tried to show up for a couple weeks to muster a couple events" and then peaced out again. Always tough to answer those questions this far out. Will brought up a good point in that we really want to see continued retrogression of the Aleutian low near and south of the Aleutians. Otherwise if it meanders east of expands to envelop the GOAK..we likely won't have anything memorable. I feel like this month wants to reflect the EC seasonal of better ridging developing in western Canada and continue that into February, so that is a good thing hopefully. We don't know if it will continue, but it was nice to see. The bigger variable is precip. That is even more tougher to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 There should never be personal attacks or "I told you so" in weather. One thing I've learned, mother nature will serve humble pie very quickly if one's ego gets in the way. You may have a different idea than someone else, but you will never know who is right until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 There should never be personal attacks or "I told you so" in weather. One thing I've learned, mother nature will serve humble pie very quickly if one's ego gets in the way. You may have a different idea than someone else, but you will never know who is right until game time. One of my lines I always told my clients when I had a busted forecast and they got mad at me was: "And it won't be the last time I bust. It's going to happen again." Most of them learned to appreciate that line of thinking. If you have been around meteorology for a long time and don't understand that, then it's probably the wrong hobby or line of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 There should never be personal attacks or "I told you so" in weather. One thing I've learned, mother nature will serve humble pie very quickly if one's ego gets in the way. You may have a different idea than someone else, but you will never know who is right until game time.excellent points that I have seen forgotten in other arenas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Regarding the upcoming pattern. We certainly are seeing developments and changes ocurring rapidly,threats may emerge suddenly. Lots of energy and it appears finally a strong STJ will be establishing. The volatility many thought would occur this winter appears to be coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Regarding the upcoming pattern. We certainly are seeing developments and changes ocurring rapidly,threats may emerge suddenly. Lots of energy and it appears finally a strong STJ will be establishing. The volatility many thought would occur this winter appears to be coming to fruition. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Regarding the upcoming pattern. We certainly are seeing developments and changes ocurring rapidly,threats may emerge suddenly. Lots of energy and it appears finally a strong STJ will be establishing. The volatility many thought would occur this winter appears to be coming to fruition. The split flow that develops in the D7-10 period could cause something to pop after the first week of January...we lose the split flow after about the 11th, but in that 3-5 day period, there's going to be all kinds of southern stream energy injected into the flow, so threats could occur and models probably won't handle them all that well until closer inside of 6 days. I'd expect split flow to return at some point down the line in January because the STJ won't be easy to hold at bay. But the 1/7-1/11 pattern is probably the first real example of how the good STJ can work in tandem with the +PNA pattern to give some threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Regarding the upcoming pattern. We certainly are seeing developments and changes ocurring rapidly,threats may emerge suddenly. Lots of energy and it appears finally a strong STJ will be establishing. The volatility many thought would occur this winter appears to be coming to fruition. I feel like that may be lost on some as they lament "dry" or "boring" OP runs. Very often the large ones are modeled well far in advance, but then we have ones like last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Here's an example of the split flow pattern on the 12z GFS...look at all the energy getting injected into the flow underneath the PNA ridge in Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 One of my lines I always told my clients when I had a busted forecast and they got mad at me was: "And it won't be the last time I bust. It's going to happen again." Most of them learned to appreciate that line of thinking. If you have been around meteorology for a long time and don't understand that, then it's probably the wrong hobby or line of work. Did you ever get cocky for a time when you were younger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Did you ever get cocky for a time when you were younger? I think everyone does to some level or another...my nature wasn't to get too complacent with my ability, but there were definitely times I thought I knew more than I did. I think many feel that way when you look back in hindsight. The best way to look at busts is that they are learning tools. Some may try and wipe them from their memory, but I personally think they are good to analyze and learn from however painful it may be to relive your mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think everyone does to some level or another...my nature wasn't to get too complacent with my ability, but there were definitely times I thought I knew more than I did. I think many feel that way when you look back in hindsight. The best way to look at busts is that they are learning tools. Some may try and wipe them from their memory, but I personally think they are good to analyze and learn from however painful it may be to relive your mistakes. 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I feel like that may be lost on some as they lament "dry" or "boring" OP runs. Very often the large ones are modeled well far in advance, but then we have ones like last January. great time to look at analog dates and cross reference similar patterns. Last year in early to mid Jan,Jan 05 kept appearing on the various analog products, this year we see dates like Jan 78 and Jan 61 showing up among others. Always liked the get us the cold and take chances from there train of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 If ever there was a time to put aside LR forecasting biases, this is it. This is when pure, objective analysis is paramount, and, as Ray said, this board has done an excellent job. A pleasure to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 100%. I tell our new forecasters that. You can't get upset and try to pretend to erase it. See what went wrong and just take it as a lesson learned. In fact, I let them forecast what "they think is right" even though I may not agree, and then see what happened the next day. Obviously I wouldn't do this in a high impact event...but I sort of fall on my sword a bit in order for them to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Cockiness in young professionals is fairly common. I remember how smart I thought I was 40 years ago and how stupid I feel time after time today in the workplace. Humility makes you better at what you do and at least entertaining what can go wrong is what anyone in meteorology should do. Euro getting closer Monday. All we need is a scooter meltdown and it could be off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Cockiness in young professionals is fairly common. I remember how smart I thought I was 40 years ago and how stupid I feel time after time today in the workplace. Humility makes you better at what you do and at least entertaining what can go wrong is what anyone in meteorology should do. Euro getting closer Monday. All we need is a scooter meltdown and it could be off to the races. If we can put down an inch or two of Currier and Ives inverted trough snow on Monday...then we'll be primed for a Scooter tirade on how he can't bring his son sledding on it...then we should be good for a blizzard in < 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Cockiness in young professionals is fairly common. I remember how smart I thought I was 40 years ago and how stupid I feel time after time today in the workplace. Humility makes you better at what you do and at least entertaining what can go wrong is what anyone in meteorology should do. Euro getting closer Monday. All we need is a scooter meltdown and it could be off to the races. Humble pie is best eaten in pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 One of my lines I always told my clients when I had a busted forecast and they got mad at me was: "And it won't be the last time I bust. It's going to happen again." Most of them learned to appreciate that line of thinking. If you have been around meteorology for a long time and don't understand that, then it's probably the wrong hobby or line of work. Yeah there are a surprising amount of real cocky people in the weather field for a profession that can be very humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GEFS hitting the -NAO pretty hard on this run late in the 11-15 day. This is just a snapshot at D13, but it gets the general idea...pretty loud signal for an ensemble mean that far out...we'll see how it goes as we get closer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 I've been watching that Sunday nite/ Mon am time frame . Think that's gonna be a nice 1-3.. Spot 4 deal for Sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah there are a surprising amount of real cocky people in the weather field for a profession that can be very humbling.lots of young millennials have the science all figured out and then boom last Jan to March and then this Dec hit and they start to understand,hey it aint always like the textbook says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GEFS hitting the -NAO pretty hard on this run late in the 11-15 day. This is just a snapshot at D13, but it gets the general idea...pretty loud signal for an ensemble mean that far out...we'll see how it goes as we get closer: Finally one I can get! I approve of this message. Also, thanks for the great insights. Most are clear enough even for someone as slow a learner as I am. Still wonder, though, where does Accuweather get its 45 day forecasts? There must be a little science mixed in with the voodoo..... and it worked for December. I remember looking at week after week of 50F+ predictions and thinking they were on crack, but it turned out to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think this OES event could put down close to 6" in the persistent bands over mid to outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I feel like that may be lost on some as they lament "dry" or "boring" OP runs. Very often the large ones are modeled well far in advance, but then we have ones like last January. Last January was impressive in that the models barely hinted at anything until less than 3 days out. At 06Z on Saturday it looked like a miss; by 12Z it was a hit. We only had a thread going here on Saturday morning for a Monday night storm (although the model thread had been hinting at it for a while). It was fun pulling up GFS maps on my iPhone after a ski race, and the running up Mount Madison (25º and calm) with the little storm the weekend before shrouding Mount Washington to the south while to the north Quebec was clear for 100s of miles. I'll remember that moment both for that, and for the mauling that came two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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