Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Euro may be cooking up something Jan 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 From Ryan's blog yesterday. So where do we stand going forward? A disturbance in the force (sorry for the lame Star Wars reference) will at least temporarily shake up the pattern. See yesterday’s blog post here. I’m worried, however, any change in the pattern is temporary as the stratospheric polar vortex will remain in place and the background El Nino forcing will stay the same. Either way at least for now the torch is gone and we have a really sweet looking pattern for snow developing around 1/10. Let’s hope we cash in before the Heat Miser comes knocking on our door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Little bit of snow thru day 10 for some areas..Might be that inv trough Will was talking about and/or some OES our just squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Well I'm expecting some kind of relaxation after what looks like a favorable pattern between the 10th and the 24th. I don't know how transient it will be and I certainly don't expect it to be nearly as extreme as the torch in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The January 3-4th system looks very intriguing this morning on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Lol. Characters. Still Nice signal on the op gfs, even if verbatim it's ots. Did some schooling last night so my ens skills have improved overnight lol...the gefs mean looks decent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Jan 3-4 will probably be for Cape and be more OES. I think a lot has to happen for anything west of 95. I guess it could always be an inv trough D-1" stuff further inland. It will be dam cold after, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nice cold shot for a bit The general public will be shocked at seasons in seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The January 3-4th system looks very intriguing this morning on the modelsProb for you, rest of sne has to wait. Does looK like an active start to jan however...moisture from the southern jet involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Jan 3-4 will probably be for Cape and be more OES. I think a lot has to happen for anything west of 95. I guess it could always be an inv trough D-1" stuff further inland. It will be dam cold after, though. Anticipating crystal blues in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Ryan pretty much ignores the fact that the assault on the PV will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 From Ryan's blog yesterday. So where do we stand going forward? A disturbance in the force (sorry for the lame Star Wars reference) will at least temporarily shake up the pattern. See yesterday’s blog post here. I’m worried, however, any change in the pattern is temporary as the stratospheric polar vortex will remain in place and the background El Nino forcing will stay the same. Either way at least for now the torch is gone and we have a really sweet looking pattern for snow developing around 1/10. Let’s hope we cash in before the Heat Miser comes knocking on our door. Background el nino forcing remains the same?? It jumped to out near the dateline. I happen to like el nino background for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 You know much more than I ever will Ryan, but I'm a little confused by that blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Ryan pretty much ignores the fact that the assault on the PV will continue. Not sold on that. It looks persistent right now. It is shoved a little off the pole from NPAC warming, but I see no signs of a SSW yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Ryan pretty much ignores the fact that the assault on the PV will continue. Will it? I don't see anything that shows the PV getting disrupted in the stratosphere... Sure we get a nice AO flip I'm worried it's temporary. Let's enjoy it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Events that give C-1" are a dime dozen usually. We're just kind of obsessing over it because there's been very little so far. Usually we start almost ignore them after the 5th or 6th one every winter. Wouldn't surprise me if we got a coating or some form of measurable from that disturbance. Could be aided by inverted trough or just almost windexy type deal though I haven't looked closely yet to see if we actually have windex parameters in place. Usually I like to see the sfc winds more southerly for LL moisture advection but we can worry about that stuff a lot closer in if models are still spitting out some QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Will it? I don't see anything that shows the PV getting disrupted in the stratosphere... Sure we get a nice AO flip I'm worried it's temporary. Let's enjoy it though. Everyone dry humped Cohen for the Kara Sea ridge. That goes bye-bye next week and was the reason why the AO goes negative. It goes near neutral at end of EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm also confused by "before the heat Miser comes knocking on our door." Sounds like that's a torch may be coming back but most are saying if the pattern doesn't sustain itself, it may relax but nothing way AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The pacific is driving the bus right now. Just hope it's not a short bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm also confused by "before the heat Miser comes knocking on our door." Sounds like that's a torch may be coming back but most are saying if the pattern doesn't sustain itself, it may relax but nothing way AN. I doubt we are anywhere near as warm but I could see an above normal pattern redeveloping. The Nino/-PNA/anti blocking combo is brutal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Like was discussed yesterday.. There's plenty of reason to worry about Feb. This Nino likely isn't done with us yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Little bit of snow thru day 10 for some areas..Might be that inv trough Will was talking about and/or some OES our just squalls Yeah should be some decent upslope showery stuff this weekend. Probably be able to get a few inches over a couple days. Nice little mid-Atlantic event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Like was discussed yesterday.. There's plenty of reason to worry about Feb. This Nino likely isn't done with us yet I thought Nino climo loved Feb and we are following the Nino climo pretty well if you ignore the extremes in departures with a warm Dec, less warm Jan, which leads to an even colder Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I doubt we are anywhere near as warm but I could see an above normal pattern redeveloping. The Nino/-PNA/anti blocking combo is brutal for us. Thanks for clarifying, makes sense. You just had a nice way to jab the snow hounds with that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 I thought Nino climo loved Feb and we are following the Nino climo pretty well if you ignore the extremes in departures with a warm Dec, less warm Jan, which leads to an even colder Feb.If we lose ridging in NW Canada and a raging +NAO, it's curtains in a good A good Feb. just one of several possibilities right now. That's all it is. No one can be confident on anything this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I doubt we are anywhere near as warm but I could see an above normal pattern redeveloping. The Nino/-PNA/anti blocking combo is brutal for us. Oxymoron. I'll take my chances with a -PNA not remaining prevalent throughout one of the strongest el nino seasons on record. This was the first pulse of energy, and we no where near finished. I understand Scott hates Cohen, but try to remain objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Everyone dry humped Cohen for the Kara Sea ridge. That goes bye-bye next week and was the reason why the AO goes negative. It goes near neutral at end of EPS. It's not only the Kara Sea ridge, IMO. There's also significant perturbing of the stratospheric vortex / warmth on the Pacific side that will aid in pumping heights poleward, which allows the kara heights to bridge. Without the wave driving from the Pacific side, I doubt the AO would be progged at such a negative magnitude. Ozone is significantly increased on the Pacific side right now, which is suggestive of those changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It's not only the Kara Sea ridge, IMO. There's also significant perturbing of the stratospheric vortex / warmth on the Pacific side that will aid in pumping heights poleward, which allows the kara heights to bridge. Without the wave driving from the Pacific side, I doubt the AO would be progged at such a negative magnitude. Ozone is significantly increased on the Pacific side right now, which is suggestive of those changes. This is what I just tried to say, but you have a clue RE the stratosphere. This is only the beginning of the assault on the vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I love how the same people who knew December would blow because of el nino, think that Feb will blow because of el nino. Sorry, not how it works. If you would like to abide by the el nino seasonal framework, then a favorable month of February is the base state. Period. The vortex grows ever more prone to disruption climatologically speaking as we progress nearer to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I love how the same people who knew December would blow because of el nino, think that Feb will blow because of el nino. Sorry, not how it works. If you would like to abide by the el nino seasonal framework, then a favorable month of February is the base state. Period. How many Super Nino February's are there to compare to come up with a base state? Feb 1998 and Feb 1983? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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