Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Posted this much earlier today. Glad to see I'm not the only one with these worriesquestion for Kev could you explain IO forcing in detail for me and how it changes hemispheric flow. Also what indicators lead you to believe IO forcing will return. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Exactly my concerns, despite the fact that I'm looking forward to January 10th to finally be able to track some storms and have a wintry pattern. Getting the true SSW around January 20th as Tom (Isotherm) has been saying would sure help a lot. This is when the actual WAF would peak after the initial wave 1 and wave 2 hits that will be going on in the next 5-10 days or so. might not have to wait until the 10th, just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's funny. Remember the old days when I was saying snow no matter what.. Was accused of being WOTY etc.. Now that I'm real and expressing ideas that snow mongers don't like .. I start getting crap like those posts and people get upset. Maybe i should go back to all weenie instead of mature posts It's funny. Remember the old days when I was saying snow no matter what.. Was accused of being WOTY etc.. Now that I'm real and expressing ideas that snow mongers don't like .. I start getting crap like those posts and people get upset. Maybe i should go back to all weenie instead of mature posts Your posts are just a bad as your WOTY posts. You are constantly looking to point out anything that might be bad. You have become Forky. You are not really expressing real ideas half the time btw. Your posts are even less mature actually. You are like Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde, hopping from one end of the continuum to the other like a drunken rabbit alternating between ecstasy and prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's game time. We have a pattern that will at least give chances in the next few weeks. The pattern a month from now is still up in the air, sure, but when is that not the case? A backloaded winter doesn't have to mean wall-to-wall from mid Jan through March like last year. If we cash in a few in mid January with a little luck, that will go a long way towards average snowfall. I'm just thankful that we didn't lock in that awful December EC ridge the whole winter, even if it comes back again at some point before season's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's game time. We have a pattern that will at least give chances in the next few weeks. The pattern a month from now is still up in the air, sure, but when is that not the case? A backloaded winter doesn't have to mean wall-to-wall from mid Jan through March like last year. If we cash in a few in mid January with a little luck, that will go a long way towards average snowfall. I'm just thankful that we didn't lock in that awful December EC ridge the whole winter, even if it comes back again at some point before season's end. great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yea, agree with JT. Pretty much where I stand til like VD. If stuff doesn't break right by then, they may need to put up a hotline on the Bulkeley Bridge in HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Which makes it even worse. It blew on thermal profiles, 6 hrs out. It was pretty bad. It's one of the most important models,and you had to completely toss it. Yeah, true good post. In the end it sucked, I thought it had the right idea for days, but I was also in an area that had a higher confidence for advisory snows, so I didn't look as closely to further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Now this is cool. Kara ridge close off from Icelandic low has relations going back to east coast ridge/severe wx in TX. Note how the ridge builds into NATL noted in reds and grey with deep troughing developing SE and S of Greenland. A final disturbance comes around and blows up the low we have today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 are ec ens showing a stormy signal for 1/7-1/8 period? Or is it gfs op fodder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 are ec ens showing a stormy signal for 1/7-1/8 period? Or is it gfs op fodder?watch that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 watch that period I'm trying to get better at reading ens like the gefs but I struggle on tropicaltidbits. Don't know at what levels I should be looking at. I see there's a 1011 low off the coast at mlsp so I guess that means there's a signal lol. But how come I can't see all the solutions and I get instead a blend of them all? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015123018/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_36.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm trying to get better at reading ens like the gefs but I struggle on tropicaltidbits. Don't know at what levels I should be looking at. I see there's a 1011 low off the coast at mlsp so I guess that means there's a signal lol. But how come I can't see all the solutions and I get instead a blend of them all? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015123018/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_36.png Typically in forecasting you want to work from the top down. Pick out favorable jet and 500 height patterns first, before worrying about 850s and whether or not there is a surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm trying to get better at reading ens like the gefs but I struggle on tropicaltidbits. Don't know at what levels I should be looking at. I see there's a 1011 low off the coast at mlsp so I guess that means there's a signal lol. But how come I can't see all the solutions and I get instead a blend of them all? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015123018/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_36.png get a wxbell sub 20 month, you can cancel in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Typically in forecasting you want to work from the top down. Pick out favorable jet and 500 height patterns first, before worrying about 850s and whether or not there is a surface low. That's how I do with OP runs with an impending system. Top down. With ens though, the upper levels seem muted to me and just aren't as clear. Maybe I'm just on the wrong site. Psu ewall gefs don't do it for me and tropicaltidbits, I can't seem to figure out what I'm looking at. And to think when I was 8, I wanted to be a Met. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 For example, what does this show. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015123018/gfs-ens_z500a_us_36.png My bad for hijacking the discussion. I should go into the met 101 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'd watch that system turning up the coast around 8th/9th as the first threat i this new paradigm/pattern ... It bears some resemblance in my mind as that 1977 January thing that rippled up around 19th or so of that month. That was a big deal up this way, and the upper levels then also had that broad negative tilt look. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 For example, what does this show. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015123018/gfs-ens_z500a_us_36.png My bad for hijacking the discussion. I should go into the met 101 thread. That shows a trough at 500mb over the SW. The blues are below normal heights. The kink in the contours over the Plains denotes a ridge. Over us and SE Canada, the flow at 500mb shows a subtle trough, but the orange colors denotes actually above normal heights. When we mean above and below normal heights, we are referring to the height at which the pressure is 500mb. This is related to temperature. The warmer the air, the more expansive the air is and a certain pressure level at 500mb is now found at a higher level. Likewise if the airmass is very cold, the 500mb pressure level is found at a much lower altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 That shows a trough at 500mb over the SW. The blues are below normal heights. The kink in the contours over the Plains denotes a ridge. Over us and SE Canada, the flow at 500mb shows a subtle trough, but the orange colors denotes actually above normal heights. When we mean above and below normal heights, we are referring to the height at which the pressure is 500mb. This is related to temperature. The warmer the air, the more expansive the air is and a certain pressure level at 500mb is now found at a higher level. Likewise if the airmass is very cold, the 500mb pressure level is found at a much lower altitude.Got it, thanks. My last retarded question would be: how would this map translate to the surface? Or do you not do that on ens means?I'm asking because, like I said, I can do well on OP runs looking from the top down. But ens means isn't as easy for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'd watch that system turning up the coast around 8th/9th as the first threat i this new paradigm/pattern ... It bears some resemblance in my mind as that 1977 January thing that rippled up around 19th or so of that month. That was a big deal up this way, and the upper levels then also had that broad negative tilt look. hmm Not Jan 1978? The big storm before the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It would seem to me based on that map there's a decent system in the sw and that's pretty much it. I can't see how thats a good look for an ec storm...is all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Not Jan 1978? The big storm before the blizzard?1-7-77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 1-7-77 Snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Got it, thanks. My last retarded question would be: how would this map translate to the surface? Or do you not do that on ens means? I'm asking because, like I said, I can do well on OP runs looking from the top down. But ens means isn't as easy for me. Well, it gives us an idea of how temps may react. Basically, a trough aloft is a pocket of colder air, and one can infer that colder air would be found at the surface. Likewise with ridges. One of the things you always hear for example, is ridging in AK. We are talking about 500mb ridges. If you have a big ridge out in NW Canada and assume air flows counter clockwise around ridges in the NHEM, the downstream response is NW flow right into the US. Sure, 500mb is found around 18,000ft...but it gives a good idea of what may be going on at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 1-7-77I will look it upThanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Got it, thanks. My last retarded question would be: how would this map translate to the surface? Or do you not do that on ens means? I'm asking because, like I said, I can do well on OP runs looking from the top down. But ens means isn't as easy for me. That's the danger with ensembles. They smooth out the little nuances of a given pattern. Sometimes because of timing issues, sometimes because of strength issues, etc. So a big, warm ridge centered east of New England with big 850 temp anomalies may not be so warm at the surface if we have high pressure delivering easterly flow off the water. But the ensemble may have a member with the warm front to Montreal, while another is stuck at ACY, and the end result is average temps over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 1/19/77 had an event where it snowed in Miami and the Bahamas http://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article1931272.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I will look it up Thanks 10-20 region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 runaway, lower heights in the southwest is good if the ENSO is in El Nino and if there is a large 500mb ridge in NW Canada and the western US. This is a sign of a +PNA pattern in an EL Nino driven winter season We had lower heights in the Baja, CA region during the Blizzard of 2005, which happened during a neutral to el nino season. However the more important feature is the 500mb ridge over NW Canada which leads to northwesterly flow aloft at 500mb across the central US, this leads to potential arctic jet disturbances running through the arctic flow out of the arctic circle, anytime you have an arctic ran 500mb shortwave and the temperatures to go along with that shortwave, than an epic nor'easter is certainly more possible than say a pattern where there was a trough over the western USA. Right now the pattern favors east coast cyclogenesis for the 7-9th period so it makes sense the ENS have a low pressure even if it may be 1011mb, it is still a great sign to have a low off the East Coast. I'm getting happier and happier for the 7-9th period as temps right now at the surface don't go above 3C, so it may still be cold enough for all snow event, especially if the event trends colder. Hope that helps you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 1/19/77 had an event where it snowed in Miami and the Bahamas http://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article1931272.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Thanks for the quick lesson. I'll keep digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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