Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I know it's been mentioned in passing on here, how the NAM used to be the go to for CAD situations. I can safely say the RGEM is my new default for 2 m temps when we're expecting CAD.

Some of the time it's not even worth my time to blend in other models, and may go straight RGEM.

yep, 3 years now it has been superior in CAD,I miss Suny MM5 inside 24 2m, nothing better yet
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's funny. Remember the old days when I was saying snow no matter what.. Was accused of being WOTY etc.. Now that I'm real and expressing ideas that snow mongers don't like .. I start getting crap like those posts and people get upset. Maybe i should go back to all weenie instead of mature posts

Just be yourself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree regarding the regime shift. I think the changes we're seeing in the NPAC are due to a combination of factors, tropospheric and stratospheric related. Still believe a SSW will not officially occur until around January 20th. No sign of tilting yet, and the upper vortex remains robust until the next WAF burst (although the lower strat vortex will attempt a split via the wave-2).

Do you have a link for those great images?

The one thing that worries me is the potential for more IO forcing to return later in the month, which when you combine the general PAC Jet activity, means that the ridging in the west coast could take a beating.

Of course, that doesn't take away from the potential great pattern starting around Jan 10th, but it would put into question its duration. Just some food for thought.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one thing that worries me is the potential for more IO forcing to return later in the month, which when you combine the general PAC Jet activity, means that the ridging in the west coast could take a beating.

Of course, that doesn't take away from the potential great pattern starting around Jan 10th, but it would put into question its duration. Just some food for thought.

 

The duration is my question as well. Or rather, if we do get a "break" in the good pattern, if it will reload quickly or not. Essentially, will the shift in mid-January be the dominant pattern for the rest of the winter even if there are some fluctuations and relaxations? Or is this a 2 week period of potential and then we are fighting through most of February?

 

Hard to say. Typically, February is pretty good in Ninos but this one has acted a bit unpredictable at times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The duration is my question as well. Or rather, if we do get a "break" in the good pattern, if it will reload quickly or not. Essentially, will the shift in mid-January be the dominant pattern for the rest of the winter even if there are some fluctuations and relaxations? Or is this a 2 week period of potential and then we are fighting through most of February?

Hard to say. Typically, February is pretty good in Ninos but this one has acted a bit unpredictable at times.

Exactly my concerns, despite the fact that I'm looking forward to January 10th to finally be able to track some storms and have a wintry pattern.

Getting the true SSW around January 20th as Tom (Isotherm) has been saying would sure help a lot. This is when the actual WAF would peak after the initial wave 1 and wave 2 hits that will be going on in the next 5-10 days or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...