HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A clippah. A clippah. Can I get a clippah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Careful ... don't want to end up with too much gradient between Ontario and Florida or you're screwed with too much balance speed and it becomes a shear fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I know it's been mentioned in passing on here, how the NAM used to be the go to for CAD situations. I can safely say the RGEM is my new default for 2 m temps when we're expecting CAD. Some of the time it's not even worth my time to blend in other models, and may go straight RGEM. yep, 3 years now it has been superior in CAD,I miss Suny MM5 inside 24 2m, nothing better yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A clippah. A clippah. Can I get a clippah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Nice run. Awesome ridging out west and just enough of a jab into Greenland to lock in a trough over the Midwest and East.will Forky tweet it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Suppression depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 LOL, I didn't see suppression. I'd rather show what it shows because there is a risk of PAC jet activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Suppression depressionyep that MSLP deep anomaly running from the Gulf day 11 to off of Maine day 13 screams suppression. I mean just stop making stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Talking op . Get a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Careful ... don't want to end up with too much gradient between Ontario and Florida or you're screwed with too much balance speed and it becomes a shear fest.its a great look Tip, 200 mb streak out of the Gulf right up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Our local WRFIs this in-house only or is it available online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Talking op . Get a clue7 EPS posts and you throw that in? Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 7 EPS posts and you throw that in? Ok One post it's worrying about #ninoheater and next post it is worrying about cold, dry suppression. We get it, it's gonna be a ratter in his book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 7 EPS posts and you throw that in? OkPretty amazing that he has access to the d11-13 operational ec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Eps says prepare to spend some $$ for energy to heat the home. Heckuva wintry 11-15. Stoves at the ready..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 One post it's worrying about #ninoheater and next post it is worrying about cold, dry suppression. We get it, it's gonna be a ratter in his book. At least it's not a devastating drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 At least it's not a devastating drought. Still waiting for that to happen from this past summer. Must have past me by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's funny. Remember the old days when I was saying snow no matter what.. Was accused of being WOTY etc.. Now that I'm real and expressing ideas that snow mongers don't like .. I start getting crap like those posts and people get upset. Maybe i should go back to all weenie instead of mature posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's funny. Remember the old days when I was saying snow no matter what.. Was accused of being WOTY etc.. Now that I'm real and expressing ideas that snow mongers don't like .. I start getting crap like those posts and people get upset. Maybe i should go back to all weenie instead of mature posts Just be yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's good to mature at age 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's good to mature at age 43.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just be yourself.I is he and he is me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I is he and he is me. Problem solved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I agree regarding the regime shift. I think the changes we're seeing in the NPAC are due to a combination of factors, tropospheric and stratospheric related. Still believe a SSW will not officially occur until around January 20th. No sign of tilting yet, and the upper vortex remains robust until the next WAF burst (although the lower strat vortex will attempt a split via the wave-2). Do you have a link for those great images? The one thing that worries me is the potential for more IO forcing to return later in the month, which when you combine the general PAC Jet activity, means that the ridging in the west coast could take a beating. Of course, that doesn't take away from the potential great pattern starting around Jan 10th, but it would put into question its duration. Just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I is he and he is me. Sitting on a snowflake, waiting for the van to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Of course. There's reasons to worry . IO forcing, ridge in NW Canada collapsing, even suppression. Nothing should make anyone feel confident one way or the other. Posted this much earlier today. Glad to see I'm not the only one with these worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The one thing that worries me is the potential for more IO forcing to return later in the month, which when you combine the general PAC Jet activity, means that the ridging in the west coast could take a beating. Of course, that doesn't take away from the potential great pattern starting around Jan 10th, but it would put into question its duration. Just some food for thought. The duration is my question as well. Or rather, if we do get a "break" in the good pattern, if it will reload quickly or not. Essentially, will the shift in mid-January be the dominant pattern for the rest of the winter even if there are some fluctuations and relaxations? Or is this a 2 week period of potential and then we are fighting through most of February? Hard to say. Typically, February is pretty good in Ninos but this one has acted a bit unpredictable at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like upper teens for highs on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The duration is my question as well. Or rather, if we do get a "break" in the good pattern, if it will reload quickly or not. Essentially, will the shift in mid-January be the dominant pattern for the rest of the winter even if there are some fluctuations and relaxations? Or is this a 2 week period of potential and then we are fighting through most of February? Hard to say. Typically, February is pretty good in Ninos but this one has acted a bit unpredictable at times. Exactly my concerns, despite the fact that I'm looking forward to January 10th to finally be able to track some storms and have a wintry pattern. Getting the true SSW around January 20th as Tom (Isotherm) has been saying would sure help a lot. This is when the actual WAF would peak after the initial wave 1 and wave 2 hits that will be going on in the next 5-10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Is this in-house only or is it available online? We aren't nearly as nice at BTV, so it's only in house. Ours is mainly running in order to model lake breezes and initiate our lake wave models. The PoP and temp grids are a nice accidental byproduct of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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