USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm optimistic for a few strong to intense coastal low pressure systems in the first seven days of January. We may get above normal snowfall from this period alone to last us all winter. It won't take much to get to the seasonal average of 29" here in Harwich, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Nantucket Sound buoy reads 47F water temperature and the buoy to the northeast of Provincetown is around 48F water temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 If anything that doesn't mean winter is cancelled. We are in Late December, who cares if the SSTs are warmer, gives more fuel to coastal storms that cross that Gulf Stream/Baroclinic Zone northern wall. The fact is clear, the SSTs ne of Provincetown are cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GFS and ECM want to relocate the PV to Hudson Bay in the long range, so a definite improvement.yes and an elongated look. Seems to be as predicted, late Dec attack another in Mid Jan leading to a SSW. I see absolutely no reason that Rays outlook doesn't pan out. We should at minimum reach climo norms for snow.IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Nantucket Sound buoy reads 47F water temperature and the buoy to the northeast of Provincetown is around 48F water temperature.2 days of cold winds and that flips fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It won't more than a few decent snowstorms to get me to my normal the past 26 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Especially if the 850mb temps drop down to around -10 to -20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 By hour 192 the 00z GFS shows the Polar Vortex moving from the other side of the Arctic Circle to Northern Canada. Then this drops southward, however I am only to hour 204 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 By hour 192 the 00z GFS shows the Polar Vortex moving from the other side of the Arctic Circle to Northern Canada. Then this drops southward, however I am only to hour 204 on the GFS. I am out to 240 and a lobe of the pv drops down. It's cold throughout the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Polar Vortex dives towards the Hudson Bay around hour 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 850mb temps drop down to -30C to -40C over the Great Lakes and Ontario, Canada by day 10, this PV lobe could mean serious business if flow remains amplified downstream. A monster nor'easter could ensue with such a high temperature differential. Explosive deepening is possible if PV lobe can dive west of us and then south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z GFS is highly amplified and totally different than the previous three cycles in the hours after 240. PV lobe means serious business, but how does it perceive its location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 850mb temps drop down to -30C to -40C over the Great Lakes and Ontario, Canada by day 10, this PV lobe could mean serious business if flow remains amplified downstream. A monster nor'easter could ensue with such a high temperature differential. Explosive deepening is possible if PV lobe can dive west of us and then south. GFS is cold from Jan 1 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GFS doesn't bring the PV lobe all the way to 40N, instead shows it near 46N latitude. So my guess is either a storm comes out of this, or nothing happens at all. For the period of January 2-4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 My grandmother and cousin are going to be awaken New Year's morning by feet upon feet of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Lol man GFS crack is good stuff, wants to bring pure winter back.Good stuff, at least mank is history, put away the torch memes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ooh the 264 hour op gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Unleashes the arctic hounds on New England and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The CFS continues to back off the warmth for January. It's gone from +6 to maybe +2 for its January forecast for our area and the trend has been downward over the last week of runs as we get closer to January. Now whether this means a month of mostly average temperatures, or, a roller coaster ride of warmth and cold remains to be seen, but the hope is we'll be getting some chances for wintry weather coming up after having a December that gave us essentially no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ooh the 264 hour op gfsooh you cant read ooh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Sure the GFS is in fantasy land but the Euro is having the same dreams 240 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This is what I have been seeing the past several days, really since our GTG, the models have really shown confidence and contuity with the setup for early January, +PNA and -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Sure the GFS is in fantasy land but the Euro is having the same dreams 240 hours out... ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png Looks like the NAO may try and join the party as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 the 12z EURO 240 hour image shows us that the PV is located in the right spot to keep giving SNE and New England more and more cold air shots throughout the period. Also ridging into the western half of the Arctic circle allows the cold air to move southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 NAO is still positive in this scenario as ridging is over the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The 00z EURO 240 hour depiction has a PV lobe of energy poised to attack the Great Lakes and New England areas with thicknesses less than 510dm, and temps less than -20C at 850mb, the arctic hounds are unleashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 only thing unexpected was the extra above normal in Dec otherwise winter arrives on schedule, enjoy the ride all the way into April April? Most signs and forecasts end winter very early March as we move into Nina. One thing for certain..no COC K for you this summer. It's a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 6z GFS shows another stormy pattern opposed to the 00z GFS which just showed cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 We hang our winter hopes on king James and snow88 guidance breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I want forky to keep chirping like he did in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.