January 2016 Pattern Disco

[medmax]

Damage in tolland: what reason do you have for thinking feb will warm?

[WinterWolf]

I agree with Scott. And said something similar yesterday. Worrying about something a month from now is rediculous. A couple weeks ago the models/ensembles had nothing but the same old warm pattern on them. That has changed drastically since then. So worrying about what something/pattern a month from now may look like or do, is just chasing your tail and gets you no where. Larry Cosgrove seems to be pretty excited about the upcoming flip(his word) in the pattern. And feels it could last quite a while. No guarantees with anything, so people should stop worrying, it's absolutely fruitless to worry about what the long range may or may not do. Just feel good that a better change is on the way. Be appreciative of the lil things...life is better lived that way.

[Damage In Tolland]

Damage in tolland: what reason do you have for thinking feb will warm?

I never once said that. I think Feb has a chance of being a decent winter month. That's the month when I issued my winter forecast that I felt held the most promise. I'm not on the epic Feb train ride that some here are on . That's all I said.

[J Paul Gordon]

Looks like my post December predictions may be caving in... Possible change in the pattern? Snow? Winter? Hysteria and hyperbole on the wane?

[ORH_wxman]

And many noted this portion time and time again, That the models all seem to struggle with the shallow cold at the surface and are to fast to erode it out, The biggest factor was in the mid levels, GFS handled this portion poorly, And as Will mentioned, These SWFE always tend to come in faster which in turn when there is sleet involved, That seems to as well, I think the RGEM handled this fairly well as well as the Euro

 

 

This SWFE was a little more aggressive in ML warming than usual...but still behaved fairly classic overall. That high position normally may help stop some of the ML warming, but the system was so tilted that we got a situation where 725mb was way warmer than 800mb. It was a little extreme in how strong the inversion was so high up.

 

RGEM and NAM seemed to do the best with the ML warming. Even euro was slightly too cold aloft. RGEM did the best with the low levels though, it kept the interior mostly below freezing, though perhaps not quite enough...NAM was bad and GFS was deplorable.

[mahk_webstah]

This is text of a tweet from Sam Lillo.  Cool to see how he lays out what he thinks the progression would be.  I think if the NAO really doe go negative, that might be our saviour for early February.

 

As Pac jet buckles, +WPO breaks down, Wrn NA ridging retrogrades, CWB over Quebec -> -NAO, + active STJ = Major NE US storm threat 1/16-17

[dryslot]

This SWFE was a little more aggressive in ML warming than usual...but still behaved fairly classic overall. That high position normally may help stop some of the ML warming, but the system was so tilted that we got a situation where 725mb was way warmer than 800mb. It was a little extreme in how strong the inversion was so high up.

 

RGEM and NAM seemed to do the best with the ML warming. Even euro was slightly too cold aloft. RGEM did the best with the low levels though, it kept the interior mostly below freezing, though perhaps not quite enough...NAM was bad and GFS was deplorable.

 

I left out the Nam as it was consistently to warm

[WinterWolf]

I never once said that. I think Feb has a chance of being a decent winter month. That's the month when I issued my winter forecast that I felt held the most promise. I'm not on the epic Feb train ride that some here are on . That's all I said.

Kevin, if you haven't done so already, get yourself a WEATHERBELL premium subscription. Great morning video today. It's worth the money imo-at least for the winter months. You'll learn a lot. I know I have.

[Typhoon Tip]

This SWFE was a little more aggressive in ML warming than usual...but still behaved fairly classic overall. That high position normally may help stop some of the ML warming, but the system was so tilted that we got a situation where 725mb was way warmer than 800mb. It was a little extreme in how strong the inversion was so high up.

 

RGEM and NAM seemed to do the best with the ML warming. Even euro was slightly too cold aloft. RGEM did the best with the low levels though, it kept the interior mostly below freezing, though perhaps not quite enough...NAM was bad and GFS was deplorable.

 

It was the old 9,000 foot tall sleet column routine

[Typhoon Tip]

This is text of a tweet from Sam Lillo.  Cool to see how he lays out what he thinks the progression would be.  I think if the NAO really doe go negative, that might be our saviour for early February.

 

 

No NAO required ... tho it may help, of course!  

 

Frankly, we are already saved.  We are in a pattern that favors breaking toward positive results - 'favored' meaning, not a certainty, but, if events should pop along, they are supported more than not.

 

That's the basal state when one sees this:

 

 

...Can't really operate under those auspices and assume rest state is a stable non-stormy no cold one.  Every index there is converged on storminess, where tho -

 

My contention is fractal - heh.  Seriously, chaos will supply this at some point, and the models could easily break toward an event or two, or three ...be it a Clipper over-producing as Will sort of intimated a while ago, if not something in a medium range through the next week to two weeks that emerges on a D6.5 and sticks.  All these are better supported now, than not, given that tapestry of teleconnectors. 

 

Also, I bothered to annotate that WPO up there... That was evidenced (also) a day or two ago, and mentioned this in that other thread, that the Asian -relay into the WPO and how that subtends any as-yet-to-be-determined influence downstream into the configuration of the north pacific is a bit of a wild card.  The EPO may in fact be stressed by the PNA, so is negative in the index, but the majority of that is in the PNA ridging.  But should negative WPO join the party, the strong correlation on the AA phase of the north pacific would really be freakin' awesome!! You'd have these presage set ups that constructively interfere and the whole thing goes nuclear.  

 

We should really be in riches here, folks.  The MJO is also favorably positioned in all that -

 

We'll see how it breaks.  Epic waste of potential should banality reign.

[WinterWolf]

Great post Tip!! Very informative and educational at the same time. And it would be a waste of potential if nothing came out of it, which is always a possibility. But I'm thinking positively, and I'd rather us be in the game and get the chance to get up to the plate and take some cuts, than be on the bench and not even in the game, which is where we've been so far this seasons, except for yesterday's event.

[JC-CT]

Seriously, chaos will supply this at some point, and the models could easily break toward an event or two, or three ...be it a Clipper over-producing as Will sort of intimated a while ago, if not something in a medium range through the next week to two weeks that emerges on a D6.5 and sticks.  All these are better supported now, than not, given that tapestry of teleconnectors. 

 

Definitely keeping an eye on the 1/8-1/10 time period as mentioned a few times in various threads, including by you. And after that, of course.

 

Maybe a chance before that high pressure takes over in the day 4-5 range although seems like we are starting to cut it close for something to start showing up on models?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Or the Spanish inquisition.

I feel really, really good about this.

Believe me, I can be as negative and b*tchy as anyone.

If I am wrong, I'll be the first to advertise it and use it as a lesson going forward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see anything big through the next 10 days. Can't rule out a small clipper type system though.

Pattern looks nice after that. The big question is how long does that pattern last? Is it the dominant pattern for the remainder of the winter or does it break down again fairly quickly?

YES.

Very good post.

Spot on as usual, Will.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS was fine the medium range in this event. It was awful close in. But it usually is in any decent sized system in our region.

It was a GFS/EURO compromise in the medium range.

It just blows with thermal fields, but we know this.

If you know how to use it, the GFS has value.

I never expected more than a light-moderate snow event out of that.

[Zeus]

I feel really, really good about this.

Believe me, I can be as negative and b*tchy as anyone.

If I am wrong, I'll be the first to advertise it and use it as a lesson going forward.

 

I am literally just making a Monty Python reference here.

 

Let Daddy have his fun.

[CoastalWx]

The one thing to watch going forward, is the amplitude of ridging in western Canada. Some models have been reducing this over the last several runs, thanks to PAC jet.  If this happens, the pattern will be muted and shortened. However, if the energy goes more into srn CA, then it can morph into a pattern more conducive for coastal storms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I (and others) think mid to late Jan look decent for normal cold and a chance at a few storms if they don't stay south. The danger seems to be pattern breaking mild late late month and Feb. I don't buy sustained winter in Feb at all. It may well happen, but there's enough reasons to not feel confident about that to walk very softly

You thought December would be very mild, right?

What did you base that on?

[dendrite]

You thought December would be very mild, right?

What did you base that on?

#ninoheater?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Which makes it even worse. It blew on thermal profiles, 6 hrs out. It was pretty bad. It's one of the most important models,and you had to completely toss it.

Completely tossing it is silly.

It was useful in determining track and evolution.....anyone who has a clue did not buy its thermals.

I used the GFS, and my forecast came out fine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

#ninoheater?

February is #ninocooler

[Damage In Tolland]

You thought December would be very mild, right?

What did you base that on?

Massive Nino and every massive one has produced warm Dec

[ORH_wxman]

Massive Nino and every massive one has produced warm Dec

Dec 1997 was barely above average in temps. Essentially normal.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dec 1997 was barely above average in temps. Essentially normal.

And how many were AN to WAN?

[Damage In Tolland]

The one thing to watch going forward, is the amplitude of ridging in western Canada. Some models have been reducing this over the last several runs, thanks to PAC jet. If this happens, the pattern will be muted and shortened. However, if the energy goes more into srn CA, then it can morph into a pattern more conducive for coastal storms.

Precisely why expecting a great snowy mid and late Jan is iffy at best

[ORH_wxman]

And how many were AN to WAN?

How many other "massive" Ninos did we have? 1982?

If you want to include 1972 that was actually slightly below normal in December.

[mahk_webstah]

No NAO required ... tho it may help, of course!  

 

Frankly, we are already saved.  We are in a pattern that favors breaking toward positive results - 'favored' meaning, not a certainty, but, if events should pop along, they are supported more than not.

 

That's the basal state when one sees this:

 

cold.jpg

 

...Can't really operate under those auspices and assume rest state is a stable non-stormy no cold one.  Every index there is converged on storminess, where tho -

 

My contention is fractal - heh.  Seriously, chaos will supply this at some point, and the models could easily break toward an event or two, or three ...be it a Clipper over-producing as Will sort of intimated a while ago, if not something in a medium range through the next week to two weeks that emerges on a D6.5 and sticks.  All these are better supported now, than not, given that tapestry of teleconnectors. 

 

Also, I bothered to annotate that WPO up there... That was evidenced (also) a day or two ago, and mentioned this in that other thread, that the Asian -relay into the WPO and how that subtends any as-yet-to-be-determined influence downstream into the configuration of the north pacific is a bit of a wild card.  The EPO may in fact be stressed by the PNA, so is negative in the index, but the majority of that is in the PNA ridging.  But should negative WPO join the party, the strong correlation on the AA phase of the north pacific would really be freakin' awesome!! You'd have these presage set ups that constructively interfere and the whole thing goes nuclear.  

 

We should really be in riches here, folks.  The MJO is also favorably positioned in all that -

 

We'll see how it breaks.  Epic waste of potential should banality reign.

 

No NAO required ... tho it may help, of course!  

 

Frankly, we are already saved.  We are in a pattern that favors breaking toward positive results - 'favored' meaning, not a certainty, but, if events should pop along, they are supported more than not.

 

That's the basal state when one sees this:

 

cold.jpg

 

...Can't really operate under those auspices and assume rest state is a stable non-stormy no cold one.  Every index there is converged on storminess, where tho -

 

My contention is fractal - heh.  Seriously, chaos will supply this at some point, and the models could easily break toward an event or two, or three ...be it a Clipper over-producing as Will sort of intimated a while ago, if not something in a medium range through the next week to two weeks that emerges on a D6.5 and sticks.  All these are better supported now, than not, given that tapestry of teleconnectors. 

 

Also, I bothered to annotate that WPO up there... That was evidenced (also) a day or two ago, and mentioned this in that other thread, that the Asian -relay into the WPO and how that subtends any as-yet-to-be-determined influence downstream into the configuration of the north pacific is a bit of a wild card.  The EPO may in fact be stressed by the PNA, so is negative in the index, but the majority of that is in the PNA ridging.  But should negative WPO join the party, the strong correlation on the AA phase of the north pacific would really be freakin' awesome!! You'd have these presage set ups that constructively interfere and the whole thing goes nuclear.  

 

We should really be in riches here, folks.  The MJO is also favorably positioned in all that -

 

We'll see how it breaks.  Epic waste of potential should banality reign.

Are you Jewish too?

 

Always enjoy your posts, and your threads.  I like your writing even if I can't always understand the technical part.  It is cool when you start sniffing out possible scenarios - always big picture and with caveats, and I like that.  Do you share Scott's concerns that the PNA ridge is getting a bit muted on some runs?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Massive Nino and every massive one has produced warm Dec

Right.

Do me a favor and make a composite of February.

Bring that lap top into the toiety and have good, long look at it.

Really stare, as if mesmerized by a suslak booty

[40/70 Benchmark]

Dec 1997 was barely above average in temps. Essentially normal.

Feb blew, too....that one was odd.

[weathafella]

And how many were AN to WAN?

The sample size is quite small though. How many superninos have we had? This is the 3rd in my lifetime I believe.