dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 0z GFS is way different than the 18z run. It's more active and a lot colder. It has 2 snowstorms chances ( Jan 10-11 and Jan 13-14 ). Expect more changes ahead with this pattern. Awesome. 372hr 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's dry thru day 10 with a few showers tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 What a weenie 18z GFS run... cold and clippers followed by a couple more robust synoptic systems. Time to build the pack. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif GFS barfed all over itself in the event we had yesterday, I'm skeptical of what it is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's dry thru day 10 with a few showers tonight Good thing no one expects much through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Good thing no one expects much through day 10. Or the Spanish inquisition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This thread is starting to sound a bit like the NYC thread. Let's step back for a minute and remember a few things: normal and slightly above normal in January is nice winter weather we are in a stepping down process and yesterday was a part of that this isn't last february and it won't be unceasingly cold and snowy we usually don't want full on arctic blasts because they are suppressive and good for the MA we are not the MA and normal to slightly above is not a torch the pattern change which is happening looks to bring a +PNA, which usually works out well for us this pattern change is making more cold air and even potentially some blocking available to us there is a southern stream this year, and a split flow Just pretend it is early-mid December and we are stepping down, because that is what this feels like to me. The hyperbole is ridiculous and unwarranted...torches, pull the blinds, etc. Also, January 15??? I guess that is possible but there has been a storm signal near the 10th for a while now. Perhaps my attitude is affected by the 6.5 inches at my stake and the flakes wafting down as I write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I don't see anything big through the next 10 days. Can't rule out a small clipper type system though. Pattern looks nice after that. The big question is how long does that pattern last? Is it the dominant pattern for the remainder of the winter or does it break down again fairly quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS barfed all over itself in the event we had yesterday, I'm skeptical of what it is showing It didn't totally barf. It barfed in it representation of the temperature profiles but remember, it was the faster option all along, while the Euro was starting precip Tuesday afternoon for a number of runs. Also,didn't the GFS better represent the position of the high in the medium range where the Euro had it sliding off east faster? The Euro moved towards the GFS in this regard. My takeaway is that we shouldn't trust GFS temp profiles; instead we should blend the other guidance. But for overall synoptic set-up didn't the GFS do decently, particularly 3-6 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's possible it breaks down near end of month as Indian Ocean tries to fire up. That's my guess. This isn't a true SSW either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS puked on itself and then smeared its face with feces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS puked on itself and then smeared its face with feces. 2 girls 1 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS was fine the medium range in this event. It was awful close in. But it usually is in any decent sized system in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS puked on itself and then smeared its face with feces. So you don't agree with any of my points, for example the Euro being too slow, and not right with the high? I'm talking a mid range 3-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 So you don't agree with any of my points, for example the Euro being too slow, and not right with the high? I'm talking a mid range 3-7 days out.It was better then, but what's the usefulness of that? When it comes time to make critical decisions, that's when I need a model to work for me. It failed and failed big in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 So you don't agree with any of my points, for example the Euro being too slow, and not right with the high? I'm talking a mid range 3-7 days out. Euro was a little slower at one point in the mid range, but IIRC it wasn't significantly faster than the other models 3-4 days out. Plus it's a SWFE...they always seem to come in faster than guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It was better then, but what's the usefulness of that? When it comes time to make critical decisions, that's when I need a model to work for me. It failed and failed big in that regard. Well mid range is very useful to a weenie; it is like meth. But you actually get paid to forecast so I get your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Well mid range is very useful to a weenie; it is like meth. But you actually get paid to forecast so I get your point. Yesterday was a beautiful reason why humans can be so useful to augment models. The srfc temp forecasts were pretty bad and any automation that was GFS based probably failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ cool. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's possible it breaks down near end of month as Indian Ocean tries to fire up. That's my guess. This isn't a true SSW either.I voiced a concern in Tip thread and of course got ripped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I voiced a concern in Tip thread and of course got ripped You did more than voice a concern. You do realize it isn't even January yet and Scott is speculating about something that might happen a month from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 You did more than voice a concern. You do realize it isn't even January yet and Scott is speculating about something that might happen a month from now?Of course. There's reasons to worry . IO forcing, ridge in NW Canada collapsing, even suppression. Nothing should make anyone feel confident one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Of course. There's reasons to worry . IO forcing, ridge in NW Canada collapsing, even suppression. Nothing should make anyone feel confident one way or the other. Anything can happen of course, and nothing in certain. The consistent signal in the ensembles across all of the global models, the shift of the CFS...these things don't make you, or shouldn't make anyone more confident than 50-50? I actually don't understand you at all here. We should all be a bit more than average confidence that we are going to have a colder, snowier period for at least 2-3 of the next 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Anything can happen of course, and nothing in certain. The consistent signal in the ensembles across all of the global models, the shift of the CFS...these things don't make you, or shouldn't make anyone more confident than 50-50? I actually don't understand you at all here. We should all be a bit more than average confidence that we are going to have a colder, snowier period for at least 2-3 of the next 4 weeks. Maybe 2 at the most. The next 2 weeks will likely average aoa with little snow. The next one is probably cold and snowy while beyond we just don't know. Many things point to a sustained nice pattern but there are flags which need to be acknowledged. We're in the strongest Nino in history and it isn't fading quickly yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 I (and others) think mid to late Jan look decent for normal cold and a chance at a few storms if they don't stay south. The danger seems to be pattern breaking mild late late month and Feb. I don't buy sustained winter in Feb at all. It may well happen, but there's enough reasons to not feel confident about that to walk very softly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It didn't totally barf. It barfed in it representation of the temperature profiles but remember, it was the faster option all along, while the Euro was starting precip Tuesday afternoon for a number of runs. Also,didn't the GFS better represent the position of the high in the medium range where the Euro had it sliding off east faster? The Euro moved towards the GFS in this regard. My takeaway is that we shouldn't trust GFS temp profiles; instead we should blend the other guidance. But for overall synoptic set-up didn't the GFS do decently, particularly 3-6 days out? Yeah that's what I was thinking. It was awful with the mid-level warmth but the overall synoptics of that last system it pretty much remained steady from Day 5-6 all the way up to go time with the exception of like one or two further south runs. I wouldn't not use the GFS because it botched the H75 warm layer yesterday. It wasn't like its synoptics were completely off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Of course. There's reasons to worry . IO forcing, ridge in NW Canada collapsing, even suppression. Nothing should make anyone feel confident one way or the other. Well if you're worried about a warmer pattern (such as the western ridge collapsing), and then yet worried also about suppression, you've covered all the basis. Worrying about mixed precip warm storms, and also worrying about suppression, seems like mixed signals. But like I've been saying, if the pattern flips and brings a couple big mid-Atlantic events without much fan fare in New England, then folks are going to really melt down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah that's what I was thinking. It was awful with the mid-level warmth but the overall synoptics of that last system it pretty much remained steady from Day 5-6 all the way up to go time with the exception of like one or two further south runs. I wouldn't not use the GFS because it botched the H75 warm layer yesterday. It wasn't like its synoptics were completely off. Which makes it even worse. It blew on thermal profiles, 6 hrs out. It was pretty bad. It's one of the most important models,and you had to completely toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The pattern coming up looks pretty good for at least a couple of weeks starting after the 10th. Whether or not we cash in is another story, but the overall look is good. That's about all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The pattern coming up looks pretty good for at least a couple of weeks starting after the 10th. Whether or not we cash in is another story, but the overall look is good. That's about all you can say.yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yesterday was a beautiful reason why humans can be so useful to augment models. The srfc temp forecasts were pretty bad and any automation that was GFS based probably failed. And many noted this portion time and time again, That the models all seem to struggle with the shallow cold at the surface and are to fast to erode it out, The biggest factor was in the mid levels, GFS handled this portion poorly, And as Will mentioned, These SWFE always tend to come in faster which in turn when there is sleet involved, That seems to as well, I think the RGEM handled this fairly well as well as the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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