CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Still seems a little more active in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 5:19 PM, WinterWolf said: Always a great write up Isotherm. And so easy to understand. Thank You for posting, and writing in a style that is easy to comprehend, even when discussing a complicated idea such as what you describe above. On 1/5/2016 at 5:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea Tom, I posted yesterday reminding folks that a SSW, though optimal, is not necessary to achieve a negative AO baseline throughout February of an el nino season. There are other constructive interferences of such an occurrence. Potential SSW still very much in the mx late month. Thanks for the enlightenment regarding the precursor considerations....I frankly do not know much about that, so simply deferred to the good doctor. On 1/5/2016 at 5:43 PM, CoastalWx said: Good stuff Tom. Cohen seems confusing at times. Thanks guys. Was a bit surprised reading parts of it. We will see what happens. We may or may not achieve an official SSW, but regardless, the rest of the winter doesn't hinge upon its occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 5:43 PM, CoastalWx said: Good stuff Tom. Cohen seems confusing at times. Could be he does that on Purpose???? Muddy the waters so to speak perhaps?? I don't know, just saying?? Isotherm seems to explain things so well, and it is never confusing when he does a write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Eps is a half decent pattern 11-15. No sign of rna. Chilly enough and snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Euro ensembles still liking that 1/17-1/18 period. That is what was mentioned earlier when I was discussing the larger scale pattern with a bit of a trough signal at the 50/50 position with longwave trough over EC and ridging out west (even if not incredibly prolific like 2015) along with a cold antecedent airmass. There's good ingredients in place there. Keep in mind how far out that is. However, I'd be fairly surprised if we didn't have at least one solid threat inside of 5 days in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Fella, What is RNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 8:41 PM, WinterWolf said: Fella, What is RNA? Negative pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 8:41 PM, WinterWolf said: Fella, What is RNA? On 1/5/2016 at 8:41 PM, weathafella said: Negative pna "reverse" PNA....if you want to know where the "r" comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 8:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles still liking that 1/17-1/18 period. That is what was mentioned earlier when I was discussing the larger scale pattern with a bit of a trough signal at the 50/50 position with longwave trough over EC and ridging out west (even if not incredibly prolific like 2015) along with a cold antecedent airmass. There's good ingredients in place there. Keep in mind how far out that is. However, I'd be fairly surprised if we didn't have at least one solid threat inside of 5 days in this pattern. Seems like that's the window when the trough sharpens up a bit to the west of us where we could get something of note. Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 8:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: "reverse" PNA....if you want to know where the "r" comes from. LOL thanks for telling me, I was like, OK I guess the R means Negative in that regard. But that makes sense now. Thank You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 How do they look out towards day 15? Do they look more like GEFS or are they serviceable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 8:39 PM, weathafella said: Eps is a half decent pattern 11-15. No sign of rna. Chilly enough and snow too.very nice, PNA rebuilding as Pac vortex retrogrades a bit. Eps Model wanted to break PNA down but keeps pushing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 3:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's also based on the GEFS too which want to break down the NAO faster than other guidance. It's definitely unclear to me how the Atlantic looks in about 2 weeks. That's some interesting look thumb ridge on the ec near day 10...Not sure if it's a real -nao...perhaps more the result of the downstream ridge from the sub-PV over the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 8:44 PM, CT Rain said: Seems like that's the window when the trough sharpens up a bit to the west of us where we could get something of note. Let's hope. Yeah once the PV lobe relaxes just a bit and lets the longwave trough breath a little bit I think we'll have a chance or two in there. On 1/5/2016 at 8:58 PM, OSUmetstud said: That's some interesting look thumb ridge on the ec near day 10...Not sure if it's a real -nao...perhaps more the result of the downstream ridge from the sub-PV over the northeast? Yeah it doesn't look like a full blown block, but certainly serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) tweeted at 5:15 PM on Tue, Jan 05, 2016: NMME 200mb height anomaly forecast starts to illustrate risk for more high-latitude blocking Feb-March https://t.co/U1ocXElTtA (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/684498478584721408?s=03) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 You can finally see something of interest on the GEFS mean SLP/500hpa heights on the 17th. That's probably the window to watch unless the shortwave next Wednesday/D7 manages to amplify or dig a bit more than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 On 1/6/2016 at 12:39 AM, CT Rain said: You can finally see something of interest on the GEFS mean SLP/500hpa heights on the 17th. That's probably the window to watch unless the shortwave next Wednesday/D7 manages to amplify or dig a bit more than progged. I'm bad with ens mean, trying to learn. Is this what you're referring to. If so, what am I missing? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_47.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 On 1/6/2016 at 12:45 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I'm bad with ens mean, trying to learn. Is this what you're referring to. If so, what am I missing? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_47.png I can't see much there. Here's what I'm referring to - you can see a slight kink to the 500mb height contours (colored) and a weak sfc low well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Yea, thats easier to see. Thanks. Gefs mean on tropicaltidbits confuses me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Seems GEFS caving thankfully Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m 3 minutes agoPennsylvania, USA GFS ensembles useless after day 10. Look at correction from yesterdays day to todays day 13 over east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow, neg NAO much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That second image looks very much like the EURO seasonal with the ridge west of HB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Euro ensembles look ok. They haven't trended worse that's for sure. I think the increased pacific jet may help with some storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 On 1/6/2016 at 1:32 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro ensembles look ok. They haven't trended worse that's for sure. I think the increased pacific jet may help with some storminess. considering 3 days ago Mets were saying torch day 15, now day 12 they look great especially well positioned for some storminess, very doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 On 1/6/2016 at 1:44 PM, Ginx snewx said: considering 3 days ago Mets were saying torch day 15, now day 12 they look great especially well positioned for some storminess, very doable. Having an opinion firmly grounded in science spares you the agony of having emotion guided by diurnal model fluctuations. Whether that opinion ultimately proves right or wrong, that is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 On 1/6/2016 at 1:44 PM, Ginx snewx said: considering 3 days ago Mets were saying torch day 15, now day 12 they look great especially well positioned for some storminess, very doable. I think that was for the concern afterwards. I mean who knows....it could get mild. It's not a cold look, but perhaps enough cold for snow, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 On 1/6/2016 at 1:56 PM, CoastalWx said: I think that was for the concern afterwards. I mean who knows....it could get mild. It's not a cold look, but perhaps enough cold for snow, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 one of these things is not like the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 AO NAO Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looks like the GEFS lost a lot of the members that brought the AO/NAO positive that they were showing a yesterday and the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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