CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 See no sign of strat vortex breaking down. Cohen Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:16 PM, CoastalWx said: See no sign of strat vortex breaking down. Cohen Fail. Well, someone is in for a spanking, as he says its going as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Eps looks fantastic with no mank in sight, pattern could produce. Epo region looking better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, someone is in for a spanking, as he says its going as planned.pretty much , he said an attack elongated look end of Dec then another attack mid month followed by a SSW. Scott do you read his AER discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, someone is in for a spanking, as he says its going as planned. He needs to look at data. I went back and looked at day 15, 10mb forecasts and day 10 forecasts and the models have had a significant bias in warming and displacing the strat vortex. Maybe later in Jan? I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 He's already gonna fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 1:15 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I want forky to keep chirping like he did in Februaryhe disappeared last year, expect to see less and less of him now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:22 PM, CoastalWx said: He needs to look at data. I went back and looked at day 15, 10mb forecasts and day 10 forecasts and the models have had a significant bias in warming and displacing the strat vortex. Maybe later in Jan? I dunno. I have always said he was rushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:23 PM, CoastalWx said: He's already gonna fail. ?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 At any rate we winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: ?????? D-F avg will not be negative. Maybe if he included Mar like he did in 2013 to prove his forecast, but you can also have final warmings in the strat near that time too..independent of SAI. I'd say this shift in more of a +PNA is not from a disturbed vortex, but more of a true signal from tropical convection finally making it more Nino-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:20 PM, Ginx snewx said: Eps looks fantastic with no mank in sight, pattern could produce. Epo region looking better and better. Yep, the models are showing a lot of ridging into Alaska. We can work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:29 PM, CoastalWx said: D-F avg will not be negative. Maybe if he included Mar like he did in 2013 to prove his forecast, but you can also have final warmings in the strat near that time too..independent of SAI. I'd say this shift in more of a +PNA is not from a disturbed vortex, but more of a true signal from tropical convection finally making it more Nino-like. The forcing is en route to the dateline, AWT. Agreed. I forecast for D-M, and while I agree that it will be tough to average a -AO, that was always the weakest aspect, at least of my outlook, anyway....I expected it to be near neutral in the mean when all was said and done, but did go slightly negative in a literal game-time decision. I think you're bit of trigger happy here. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:22 PM, CoastalWx said: He needs to look at data. I went back and looked at day 15, 10mb forecasts and day 10 forecasts and the models have had a significant bias in warming and displacing the strat vortex. Maybe later in Jan? I dun He still thinks a big attack will happen near mid January which will really disrupt the PV and turn the AO negative. On 12/24/2015 at 2:23 PM, Ginx snewx said: he disappeared last year, expect to see less and less of him now He has been posting in the NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Have to say the quick flip to seasonal coming surprised me. Some sigs for a decent storm too. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:34 PM, Ginx snewx said: Have to say the quick flip to seasonal coming surprised me. Some sigs for a decent storm too. Good stuff Tom nailed this if it does indeed sustain itself, which is still a big if. I have my doubts, but hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:32 PM, Snow88 said: He has been posting in the NYC thread.obsessed with SNE ,troll gonna troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm going to try to read Scott's mind, and it seems to me is taking a preemptive posture in anticipation of another significant flip and good winter, despite an SAI failure...like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:35 PM, Ginx snewx said: obsessed with SNE ,troll gonna troll He hates the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The forcing is en route to the dateline, AWT. Agreed. I forecast for D-M, and while I agree that it will be tough to average a -AO, that was always the weakest aspect, at least of my outlook, anyway....I expected it to be near neutral in the mean when all was said and done, but did go slightly negative in a literal game-time decision. I think you're bit of trigger happy here. We'll see... Well he's expecting a full blown -AO based on SAI. I'm not saying it will be always positive, but the theory as some others have already pointed out..probably won't work out again if we expect a negative D-F. I guess if we see a SSW and a flip to a strong negative look, I will give it some credence, but I have doubts. The thing is, the vortex always gets disturbed in the winter, and El Nino tends to help promote a -AO based on tropospheric responses to SSTs and latent heat release. Prove to me how the SAI can influence the pattern independently. If we see this alternate to a neutral or slightly negative state at times, that isn't proving the SAI to me. I'm open to it, as I always am when it comes to new things in atmospheric science, but I have some doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to try to read Scott's mind, and it seems to me is taking a preemptive posture in anticipation of another significant flip and good winter, despite an SAI failure...like last year. I always said that if we do sort of flip and have a good stretch, it will be because of the Pacific. I have doubts on the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to try to read Scott's mind, and it seems to me is taking a preemptive posture in anticipation of another significant flip and good winter, despite an SAI failure...like last year.grasshoppers with patience are liking what we see. Went from baby steps to one big giant step forward. Tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:44 PM, CoastalWx said: Well he's expecting a full blown -AO based on SAI. I'm not saying it will be always positive, but the theory as some others have already pointed out..probably won't work out again if we expect a negative D-F. I guess if we see a SSW and a flip to a strong negative look, I will give it some credence, but I have doubts. The thing is, the vortex always gets disturbed in the winter, and El Nino tends to help promote a -AO based on tropospheric responses to SSTs and latent heat release. Prove to me how the SAI can influence the pattern independently. If we see this alternate to a neutral or slightly negative state at times, that isn't proving the SAI to me. I'm open to it, as I always am when it comes to new things in atmospheric science, but I have some doubts. On 12/24/2015 at 2:45 PM, CoastalWx said: I always said that if we do sort of flip and have a good stretch, it will be because of the Pacific. I have doubts on the AO. Fair enough. There is obviously something there with the SAI, but something is probably missing, too. It will be years before we really know how valuable of a tool it is, so doubts are certainly warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:46 PM, Ginx snewx said: grasshoppers with patience are liking what we see. Went from baby steps to one big giant step forward. Tracking "One small step for the weenie, one giant leap for weenkind". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: "One small step for the weenie, one giant leap for weenkind".lol we ween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:56 PM, Ginx snewx said: lol we ween Is that not a snowstorm pattern for New England? Pretty sharp ridge just inside the west coast, enough SE ridge to bend the flow north east and a vortex further south? Is there a worry though with the vortex towards Greenland? The North Atlantic ridge could build back more NW I'd hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 2:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fair enough. There is obviously something there with the SAI, but something is probably missing, too. It will be years before we really know how valuable of a tool it is, so doubts are certainly warranted. Yes I believe in the physics of it. I guess to me, I'm not sold on it to be a big driver at times like some are. The actual correlation of it probably is lower than we think. Just my thoughts, I'm not trying to sway anyone, nor say I am correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hilarious if we Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 3:05 PM, CoastalWx said: Yes I believe in the physics of it. I guess to me, I'm not sold on it to be a big driver at times like some are. The actual correlation of it probably is lower than we think. Just my thoughts, I'm not trying to sway anyone, nor say I am correct. Not at all, I got ya. Really reasonable, and I agree....there is likely more to it, as we will find out in years to come. The correlation will likely drop some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDls5C4a_kU Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 33s 33 seconds ago Don't be fooled by above normal heights east- this is a cold pattern with a monster block over AK. #winteriscoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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