Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The first week or so of Jan looks to be fairly wintry with 1-2 potential snow/ice events and a cold period centered around 2-5. After that the ENS breakdown the decent pattern and really torch the N tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47437-winter-lorn-given-a-reason-to-smile/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'm not worried past the 5th of January yet, I think we have more of a sustained +PNA pattern and with the AO going negative too at the beginning of the month, I would be on a colder pattern evolving longer than the models have indicated so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 That's a split flow on the eps map shown by Kevin and while not cold, beware of sneaky cold and potentially well timed events. Nothing at all like the current ridiculous warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 That's a split flow on the eps map shown by Kevin and while not cold, beware of sneaky cold and potentially well timed events. Nothing at all like the current ridiculous warmth. Right, it's not cold or torch..But it is an AN pattern ..If we time storms right ..like the one Monday night/Tuesday we can still get wintry precip. But it's not a pattern that will sustain snow OTG or cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Right, it's not cold or torch..But it is an AN pattern ..If we time storms right ..like the one Monday night/Tuesday we can still get wintry precip., But it's not a pattern that will sustain snow OTG or cold It's a step in the right direction. Snow retention is so last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Who cares about retention, last year was so historic in that it had 30+ inches on the ground for Harwich (Outer Cape Cod, MA), it is so rare to see such sustained cold, what matters is the total snowfall accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I don't think Kevin's map looked bad at all. Room for the PNA to amplify as that low is far enough west. Snow retention would be fine up here and that map would provide lots of opportunities. LC quite enthusiastic it seems. Also, I saw this period as a step down, not a 60 day period of unremitting cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Oh boy. Uh- oh https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/679669749199048704 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Right, it's not cold or torch..But it is an AN pattern ..If we time storms right ..like the one Monday night/Tuesday we can still get wintry precip. But it's not a pattern that will sustain snow OTG or cold Of course, that's an (understandable) SNE viewpoint. The period Jan-Feb 2008 ran +3 around here but it featured nearly 70" snowfall and huge snowpack. - and that winter showed the strongest latitudinal gradient of any of Will's snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Well many of us said in January we'll probably see another kick in the pants if lower heights move east into AK. I expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 If that happens and it now appears likely, those forecasts of mid and late Jan pattern change to cold are in deep deep trouble . Then we are left with 28 days in Feb to hope we salvage a bit of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If that happens and it now appears likely, those forecasts of mid and late Jan pattern change to cold are in deep deep trouble . Then we are left with 28 days in Feb to hope we salvage a bit of winter I had cold and tumble weeds to show for it last January until the 24th. Who cares if it's +3 if it means a good storm or two. It likely may not be a snowpack winter for you, but the hope is to try and take advantage of the storms we have...which hopefully will be more than normal..even if it means ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 I had cold and tumble weeds to show for it last January until the 24th. Who cares if it's +3 if it means a good storm or two. It likely may not be a snowpack winter for you, but the hope is to try and take advantage of the storms we have...which hopefully will be more than normal..even if it means ptype issues.Oh I know. This is not a winter for mine and Will's pack fetish. This is the winter of snow to ice to rain and you hope it's a net gain. Then we torch for 3-4 days and maybe a repeat or 2 of that ensue. Even Feb as some think is not going to be overly snowy. Just a few threats , cold for a few days, torch then another storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cape Cod Bay water temp 49 degrees. Winter cancel for us EMA weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Oh I know. This is not a winter for mine and Will's pack fetish. This is the winter of snow to ice to rain and you hope it's a net gain. Then we torch for 3-4 days and maybe a repeat or 2 of that ensue. Even Feb as some think is not going to be overly snowy. Just a few threats , cold for a few days, torch then another storm I didn't imply any of that. It could be a cold Feb...but all I said is that I wouldn't expect 2015 to walk through that door. I didn't say every storm is snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 ratter. strongest pv on record with the strongest nino on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 ratter. strongest pv on record with the strongest nino on record. Throw in more solar than we had hoped for.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Throw in more solar than we had hoped for....Just a lot of bad things culminated to have this happen this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 LR looking sweet, watch that Jan 2-4 period for a possible good storm. What a flip in the pattern. Good stuff. Possible NAO help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ratter. strongest pv on record with the strongest nino on record.melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 melt I'm above average on snowfall, why would I melt down? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm above average on snowfall, why would I melt down? lol Sure, rub it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm above average on snowfall, why would I melt down? lol you are in the sweet spot and I hope you keep getting hammered but to write this winter off as a ratter is crazy. Long long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 you are in the sweet spot and I hope you keep getting hammered but to write this winter off as a ratter is crazy. Long long way to go I already told ray over a month ago I was in the warm below normal snow camp. The trends of lack of blocking just reinforces that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just a lot of bad things culminated to have this happen this winteronly thing unexpected was the extra above normal in Dec otherwise winter arrives on schedule, enjoy the ride all the way into April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I already told ray over a month ago I was in the warm below normal snow camp. The trends of lack of blocking just reinforces that.look for the transient blocks to again rear their heads, beginning of the end for super PV, long long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 look for the transient blocks to again rear their heads, beginning of the end for super PV, long long way to go. meh...you guys can always get lucky...but I haven't seen much that says favorable or better than average pattern-wise. Obviously we're moderating and it's not as bad as the torch december, but that doesn't mean good, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 meh...you guys can always get lucky...but I haven't seen much that says favorable or better than average pattern-wise. Obviously we're moderating and it's not as bad as the torch december, but that doesn't mean good, either. We should have a forecast-your-thoughts-for-the-rest-of-the-season thread...just to finalize where people think we are headed in terms of temp departures and snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GFS and ECM want to relocate the PV to Hudson Bay in the long range, so a definite improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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