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December 23-24 Severe Weather Threat


Hvward

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With 3 tornado warnings this morning at 8am across the southeast that span for the AR/MO border to the coast of NC... I think this event deserves its own thread. Given the high horizontal and vertical shear values in place, it wont take much to get these storms rotating with powerful dynamics lurking in the 0-1km zone. Be safe and weather ready if you are in the south today!

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Cell SE of Mobile has a broad rotation thats trying to tighten up....could produce a strong tornado if it does put down...

Yep you can see the horizontal shear on radar in front moving N as the storm continues to pull right and head ENE. Very impressive for 8:30am on December 23rd. Also a major spike in lightning over the past 5 minutes near the center of the meso. All signs of strengthening to come.
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sucks I gotta go to bed and miss tracking these storms.....night shift sucks lol.....starting to wonder if I need to stay up that tornadic cell is moving in my direction if it maintains it could get kinda close....

It doesn't want to die that is for sure. Circulation has improved on the most recent scan.

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My thoughts from last night in the other thread still hold and everything appears to be on track for a rather significant severe weather day. I was a bit surprised to see NC with a tornado warned storm already this morning, but that shows us how dynamic this system is.

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mcd2036.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...NRN MS...WEST TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231658Z - 231900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
TN/MS/LA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING
MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SO FAR...DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ALONG A SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER NORTHERN LA. MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH
TIME. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN INTENSITY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015

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PDS Watch out!

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK SHOULD INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 557...WW 558...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...GRAMS

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

 
 
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
 
  NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
 
  SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
 
  NORTH CENTRAL LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
 
 
 
* UNTIL 245 PM EST
 
    
 
* AT 205 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE
 
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AS WELL AS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
 
  WINDS. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
 
  IRMO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
 
 
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
 
  WINNSBORO...BLYTHEWOOD...CHAPIN...RIDGEWAY...PEAK...WINNSBORO MILLS
 
  AND LAKE MURRAY OF RICHLAND.
 
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mcd2041.gif

VALID 231921Z - 232045Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION   MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL SC...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE   RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR ACROSS THE MCD AREA...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL   MOISTURE IS PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE VWP   FROM KCAE SHOWS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SWLY WINDS FROM   1-9 KM...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED BY LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS   FROM 125-225 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND   STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED   ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE   CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LINEAR STORM MODE   THUS FAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY   THREAT...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE ALSO   POSSIBLE.
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Cell SE of Jackson, MS should go TW'd soon. Might be the first real candidate of the day

Good call...

230 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  EASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...* UNTIL 330 PM CST* AT 230 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHIVERS...OR NEAR PINOLA...MOVING  NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
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