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December 25-29th Storm Disco


Chicago Storm

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Don't make me whip out the FIM... :gun:

I'm not even sure where you look at the FIM. If you go to Weatherbell.com, the FIM is still stuck on December 2nd run of the FIM, so I'm not sure what's happening there. All I'm saying is that the global models and ensembles (other than the Japanese) are more reliable than some sort of hybrid (Downscaled GFS with NAM Extensions... DGNX or perhaps DGEX/Eta). Actually it would be nice to have better availability of the UKMET information. The UKMET cracked down on data availability at some point about a year ago. The UKMET is a decently accurate model. I wonder if it is even better than 25km resolution these days.

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I'm not even sure where you look at the FIM. If you go to Weatherbell.com, the FIM is still stuck on December 2nd run of the FIM, so I'm not sure what's happening there. All I'm saying is that the global models and ensembles (other than the Japanese) are more reliable than some sort of hybrid (Downscaled GFS with NAM Extensions... DGNX or perhaps DGEX/Eta). Actually it would be nice to have better availability of the UKMET information. The UKMET cracked down on data availability at some point about a year ago. The UKMET is a decently accurate model. I wonder if it is even better than 25km resolution these days.

 

The UKMET was actually running laps around the other models last season (especially for GHD 2015). 

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This feels like the old days when the 84 hr NAM was looking to go north and then the GFS doesn't follow suit...you hold out hope for the GFS solution to verify and then it creeps north on subsequent runs.  :axe:

 

Good thing that hasn't happened since 2007-2008 (with exception to GHD 2011).

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This feels like the old days when the 84 hr NAM was looking to go north and then the GFS doesn't follow suit...you hold out hope for the GFS solution to verify and then it creeps north on subsequent runs. :axe:

I remember those days.

Heard the CMC is pretty big with quite a bit of snow.

Yeah I would say so.

post-7389-0-61234700-1451018330_thumb.jp

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You know the models are having a difficult time when one model has a particular location getting rain or freezing rain, and another model has a whiff to the southeast with snow.  

 

The UK being fairly far northwest is sort of interesting.  The Euro has been one of the further northwest solutions at times, and the NAM also looks to be leaning in that direction.  Interesting battle of the models shaping up.

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Epic, epic sleet storm on the 00z GGEM for parts of northern IN/OH...some areas get near 2" qpf as sleet, and if you go with a 3:1 ratio for that... 

 

That would be pretty cool to experience, but would probably end up being a bit jealous of the pure snow areas once their pics start getting posted lol.  

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Epic, epic sleet storm on the 00z GGEM for parts of northern IN/OH...some areas get near 2" qpf as sleet, and if you go with a 3:1 ratio for that...

I'm very skeptical at this point...there's a good shot of cold over Canada and the low level cold will try to seep south...so a good shot of wintry precip seems like a good bet somewhere...I'm just skeptical being so close to the southern edge right now. But with that said I'd really love if something like the GGEM panned out. I've never seen more than about an inch of sleet at once and the idea seems kind of fun.

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