Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Where did this threat even come from? Confluence on the SW side of the massive +NAO keeping low level cold locked in as the cutoff moves NE...interesting setup. -EPO is helping. Strong high to the north is acting to road block it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Pulled up a GFS forecast sounding from northern IN for Monday evening and it had near 50 mph gust potential with freezing rain. Looks like solid snow in Chicago, albeit ratios will be very low, in the realm of 8:1 or so with 600mb temps as high as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 From the CPC, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 FWIW: the NAM @84hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ice is essentially impossible imby without prior deep cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 FWIW: the NAM @84hours. It's clearly going to be EURO-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ice is essentially impossible imby without prior deep cold Flow off of a 40+ degree lake doesn't help the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Texas panhandle road trip - URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 306 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 ..DANGEROUS WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE WEEKEND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PULL ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED WINTER STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING LATE MONDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WILL LIKELY CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND COULD SUSPEND TRAVEL ALTOGETHER. TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040-251400- /O.NEW.KLUB.BZ.A.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1800Z/ PARMER-CASTRO-BAILEY-LAMB-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-YOAKUM-TERRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...FARWELL...DIMMITT... HART...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...MORTON...LEVELLAND... DENVER CITY...PLAINS...BROWNFIELD 306 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW COULD FALL TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH HEAVIER SWATHS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ice is essentially impossible imby without prior deep cold Agreed-- no hope for an ice storm along the lake with this one. We need to hope for a GFS or CMC solution to bring some slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 18z GFS looks like it's going to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 18Z is classic ice storm from Ohio to a good chunk of South MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 18z GFS looks like it's going to come north. Just slightly stronger / warmer / NW of the 12z run. In the grand scheme of things, the changes weren't notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 IF this comes to fruition, the amount of rain the past day or so, and the amount that is forecast the next couple of days, with an unfrozen ground the saturation and then trees iced over, could bring many down, and/or into power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Things sure warm up fast: Surface low approaching with warming temps aloft, but you still have strong easterly low flow in northern Indiana/Ohio at 108 hours. Normally it's a good bet to side with warm air advection winning out on the quicker side but I wonder if the surface temp response would lag a little behind what the model is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 IND is talking 3-6 inches of rain with this system from Indpls south. With winds currently being progged I certainly would not want to see ice anywhere in our subforum with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 IND is talking 3-6 inches of rain with this system from Indpls south. With winds currently being progged I certainly would not want to see ice anywhere in our subforum with this one. Wide area of sustained 25-30 mph and gust 40-50 mph potential on the 18z GFS, moving south to north in concert with the freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 A broken string of 3-5", maybe 6" amounts on the GFS. Snow band still in the same area generally, the amounts are spread out from run to run. Gotta post the DGEX too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If you post the DGEX, you must be desperate for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If you post the DGEX, you must be desperate for snow. Most of the DGEX's snow area will be ice, I haven't seen a DGEX run this far out, even close to verify in ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Most of the DGEX's snow area will be ice, I haven't seen a DGEX run this far out, even close to verify in ages. If you post the DGEX, you must be desperate for snow. I believe that was Chinook's point, hahaha Most of the NWS offices in the potential ice zone have introduced either wintry mix or freezing rain probs to their forecasts next week. Now to see what happens, the thought of a decent amount of ice accumulation + 40-50mph winds is a little disturbing especially for post-Christmas traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18z GFS has sleet for Cincinnati Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If you post the DGEX, you must be desperate for snow. Lol, I don't need to see any big amounts, just enough to boost the month total closer to normal, which is 9.5". Why is the DGEX still running anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If you post the DGEX, you must be desperate for snow. Don't make me whip out the FIM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Don't make me whip out the FIM... You rang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 You rang? mslp_sfc_f114.png Lol. If you keep it up buckeye will bust out the Japanese. I'm really not liking this. As much as I enjoy extreme weather, I don't like lots of ice and the associated power outages. A blend of the models to this point puts the FWA area in the bullseye. Fortunately, it looks to melt quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I believe that was Chinook's point, hahaha Most of the NWS offices in the potential ice zone have introduced either wintry mix or freezing rain probs to their forecasts next week. Now to see what happens, the thought of a decent amount of ice accumulation + 40-50mph winds is a little disturbing especially for post-Christmas traveling. And where it does remain all snow (or in areas that see a decent front-end thumping), B-word conditions would become an issue assuming those winds were realized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy3620 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Anyone know where I can find ice accumulation maps on models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z NAM is still going to end up NW / warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z NAM is still going to end up NW / warm. Very EURO looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Very EURO looking. The cutoff is so slow to move eastward on the EURO and NAM that it ends up doing a Fujiwara with the "kicker" wave when it arrives. Fortunately, the EURO in particular has a known bias for being too slow in pushing those cutoff lows eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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