mimillman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Impressive easterly 850 mb flow on the north side on the models, especially the 12z GGEM and the 00z ECMWF. gem_mslp_uv850_ncus_19.png This looks aggressive but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 FWIW, the 00z Euro ensemble mean was pretty close to the OP Euro. Maybe a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This looks aggressive but... GEM.png ORD meteogram has 30 mm as snow, so that actually looks underdone at least there. Edit: well, meteogram says city of Chicago. Maybe they are using a southern location in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This looks aggressive but... GEM.png That snow orientation looks pretty familiar, but I can't pin it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z GGEM has a ton of sleet again, and more freezing rain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Lock this in. Nice pull of cold air into the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The GFS is starting to hone in on an ice threat for most of Ohio. Don't lock this in! Freezing rain is not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The GFS is starting to hone in on an ice threat for most of Ohio. Don't lock this in! Freezing rain is not good at all. Canadian is even more significant looking in terms of Ice potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah the CMC is nasty looking for the top 1/3 of Indiana, Ohio. Temps in the 20s and at night - and to mention windy. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 EURO cutting the low from Dallas up into IL now, vs into Iowa last night. Definitely took a step towards other guidance, snow band further south and east into southern WI, lower MI this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 EURO cutting the low from Dallas up into IL now, vs into Iowa last night. Serious amount of QPF on the front end for us but looks too warm aloft for snow, 850's look to be slightly too warm. Heaviest snow swath at least on WxBell runs from central KS to western IA and ENE to MSN/central WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Euro would look like a pretty bad ice storm for some areas with the warmer thermals undercut by subfreezing temps. For example over an inch of precip falls over this area with temps below freezing. These model runs are all over the place, so I'm not buying into anything yet. Although it's looking like the potential is there for some heavy wintry precip for a large area of the sub to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Serious amount of QPF on the front end for us but looks too warm aloft for snow, 850's look to be slightly too warm. Heaviest snow swath at least on WxBell runs from central KS to western IA and ENE to MSN/central WI Got a feeling will be talking about a significant ice threat in the sub forum come early next week. Models aren't backing off on the idea yet. 500 mb map 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Serious amount of QPF on the front end for us but looks too warm aloft for snow, 850's look to be slightly too warm. Heaviest snow swath at least on WxBell runs from central KS to western IA and ENE to MSN/central WI With no access to the precip maps, does most of the front-end thump for Chicago and Milwaukee fall at night? That may help, though with the problem being the upper levels it would be less likely than if it were too warm in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 With no access to the precip maps, does most of the front-end thump for Chicago and Milwaukee fall at night? That may help, though with the problem being the upper levels it would be less likely than if it were too warm in the low levels. Yeah, evening/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Snagged a map posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 With no access to the precip maps, does most of the front-end thump for Chicago and Milwaukee fall at night? That may help, though with the problem being the upper levels it would be less likely than if it were too warm in the low levels. It does, mainly 0z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Euro would look like a pretty bad ice storm for some areas with the warmer thermals undercut by subfreezing temps. For example over an inch of precip falls over this area with temps below freezing. These model runs are all over the place, so I'm not buying into anything yet. Although it's looking like the potential is there for some heavy wintry precip for a large area of the sub to be sure. I'm down for a good ice storm IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 If ice ends up becoming a threat, the the strong easterlies may really have an impact. Strong pressure gradient looks like it should help produce very strong winds Monday evening north of the surface low. Euro showing over 60kts just off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 itshappening.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm down for a good ice storm IMBY Would suck to lose power, but from a met perspective ice storms are very cool. No pun intended lol. Question becomes if the area of ice comes to pass, how much of it will be sleet as opposed to freezing rain. Have the feeling we'll be glancing at quite a few forecast soundings in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 If ice ends up becoming a threat, the the strong easterlies may really have an impact. Strong pressure gradient looks like it should help produce very strong winds Monday evening north of the surface low. Euro showing over 60kts just off the surface. A lot to figure in the coming days. Besides track and magnitude/depth of the cold air, how much will accrete vs. run off given heavy precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Where did this threat even come from? Confluence on the SW side of the massive +NAO keeping low level cold locked in as the cutoff moves NE...interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GFS would be switchover hell for me from the soundings. CMC and ECMWF, I'd have to get my generator fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GFS would be switchover hell for me from the soundings. CMC and ECMWF, I'd have to get my generator fixed. GGEM is more of a sleet storm than freezing rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Wow, what a sudden twist. About 12 hours ago it sounded like I needed to get a raft ready. This is definitely worth watching, there hasnt really been a big post-Christmas ice storm out east in several years. Seems like the GFS and Canadian are advertising it the most, but I've seen signals elsewhere of an icy event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just to illustrate the dry air associated with the Canadian high pressure: A couple things to keep in mind. One, we'll have to see if the dry air is underestimated and delays precip onset and two, as long as low level trajectories are feeding off of the high (E/NE winds), it will supply a source of low level cold/dry air to try to counteract attempts to warm above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Of course, over the next few days the snow, sleet, and freezing rain areas will shift. Welcome to model madness 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hopefully just a quick shot of awful freezing rain before changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Pulled up a GFS forecast sounding from northern IN for Monday evening and it had near 50 mph gust potential with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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