HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0Z GFS has a "road obliterator" ice event, not enough for power outages but enough to screw up the roads bad. While the CMC has all of that as snow. Fun Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GGEM is also GHD-like sleet-y for Northern Indiana and NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0Z GFS has a "road obliterator" ice event, not enough for power outages but enough to screw up the roads bad. While the CMC has all of that as snow. Fun Fun. Saving grace for this event would be if the ice zone is transient. But with a ~1040 mb high and a sub 1000 mb low, that would result in decent winds and you can start getting problems with relatively small amounts of ice in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GGEM is also GHD-like sleet-y for Northern Indiana and NW Ohio. lolLAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Saving grace for this event would be if the ice zone is transient. But with a ~1040 mb high and a sub 1000 mb low, that would result in decent winds and you can start getting problems with relatively small amounts of ice in that case. Another possile saving grace (as far as seeing less in the way of damaging ice accretion) may be the deep cold layer between 900mb and 950mb that's being progged will be enough to flip the melting precip back over to sleet (as the GGEM shows), lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Another possile saving grace (as far as seeing less in the way of damaging ice accretion) may be the deep cold layer between 900mb and 950mb that's being progged will be enough to flip the melting precip back over to sleet (as the GGEM shows), lol... True. The low level cold layer looked decent on the GFS but not quite enough, and thus it's more freezing rain than sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On the GGEM, the low ultimately tracks from the Arklatex, to Memphis, to Toledo. But by the time it reaches Toledo, it weakens from 997mb to 1014mb as it transfers to the East Coast. And quite frankly, it's been a LONG time since we've seen that type of storm track with a closed / southern stream low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ice potential is low with mild temps preceding the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ice potential is low with mild temps preceding the event. imo this is kind of overrated. I recall seeing ice storms in the Carolinas where it wasn't cold ahead of time. Unless you're talking about paved/road impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Looks like the area of ice and sleet decreases as the low moves towards Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Here's a more local example...the central Indiana ice storm in early January 2005. Highs were in the 40s/50s in the days preceding this. Temps during the storm weren't that cold (generally 30-32). This pic is nothing compared to what it looked like in the hardest hit areas...I don't mean to suggest something that big is on the way, but it shows that it doesn't have to be cold ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ha, for once the tropical tidbit maps don't see over inflated. EURO at Hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 imo this is kind of overrated. I recall seeing ice storms in the Carolinas where it wasn't cold ahead of time. Unless you're talking about paved/road impacts.Yeah trees and wires would easily get coated. The road might be harder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 EURO at Hour 72. Extrapolating from the 96hr frame, the 00z EURO is likely going to be SE / colder than the 12z run. In fact, it doesn't look too dissimilar from the GFS / GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z ECMWF looks like it's northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0z Euro staying west it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah it is way west. Low occludes and ends up in southern Iowa. Looks like some front end mixed precip in northern IL, eastern Iowa, and probably southern MI. Another low forms near Ft. Wayne at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z ECMWF looks like it's northwest. The notable difference is that the kicker wave moves in considerably faster compared to the GGEM (and GFS to a lesser extent). Combine that with the EURO's tendency to kick those southern stream waves eastward too slowly and you get the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 anyone know where the heavy rain axis is on the 00z ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 anyone know where the heavy rain axis is on the 00z ECMWF? I don't think it's up this way. Most of the moisture that falls in northern IL does near freezing or under. Probably over towards Indy I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I don't think it's up this way. Most of the moisture that falls in northern IL does near freezing or under. Probably over towards Indy I would think. Verbatim, best ice threat on this run would be far northern IL away from the lake. 2m temp/dewpoint freebie from Wunderground at 123 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Classic Euro vs others showdown as of the 0z runs for the Tuesday system. Quite a bizarre look to the Euro with the low lifting almost due north from near the GOM. The storm on Christmas Day into Saturday has some good agreement among the models and brings possible warning snow totals to MN and WI. Might see headlines for this system after another model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Strong ice signal is there for most of Illinois through to northern New Jersey on the 12z GFS. Edit: Actuslly scratch that, looks like snow for most of Illinois. Haven't seen the soundings, but 850s look plenty cold. Surface marginal by the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Most of this is probably sleet, so take that FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Most of this is probably sleet, so take that FWIW I can't view this w/out an account. Can you upload it to Imgur or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I can't view this w/out an account. Can you upload it to Imgur or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Impressive easterly 850 mb flow on the north side on the models, especially the 12z GGEM and the 00z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Thin area gets clobbered with snow again on the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Thin area gets clobbered with snow again on the 12z GGEM. Grand Rapids Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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