cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's a battle between sleet and snow over here. The line is wavering near Cedar Rapids. I'm back to mostly snow now. The HRRR continues to insist the warm layer will win out and advance northward across eastern Iowa through afternoon. Update: 5 minutes later the sleet has moved back in. Nice. I'm kind of jealous. Haven't seen daytime snow falling since early on Dec 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Haha. Sometimes it's kinda hard to tell. I think I've been underestimating how much sleet is actually mixed in. It's probably been more like 50/50 based on lack of glazing relative to the precip intensity/duration. Probably around 0.10" or so of glazing so far. Right now I think it's more sleet than freezing rain. If it stays this way we may come out of this in decent shape, as temps should be above freezing by 2-3pm. Yeah, appears we are still changing back and forth depending on rates too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Um, slightly ambitious? Would be awesome if this was an all snow event. Side roads are a mess at least.Snow still going strong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The HRRR is hinting at a shallow antecedent LE band stretching from Mississauga to Burlington. If it does materialize, KC radar will have a tough time picking it up. Timing is between 20z-0z. Also, it is all snow from Etobicoke on east through the end of its run. 0.2-0.4" of QPF. I think 2-4" of snow is a fair call, with a bit of an SW-NE cline. Can add 1 to maybe 2" of sleet to that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 In areas that receive significant sleet and are borderline in terms of eventually rising above freezing, I wonder if the sleet cover would act to tip things a tad colder. This theory played out here this morning in Srn Putnam County (OH). Had sleet between 5-6am, then a mix of sleet/fzg rain/rain, then a period of freezing rain up until now. The sleet cooled the ground and other objects enough to allow a glaze of ice on everything (pavement not included). Currently 33 and no precip here right now. Multiple reports out of Fort Wayne, IN of .10-.15" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Snow and pellets now. Wind at 25 mph makes it smart on exposed skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Unfortunately, the snow line is now steadily retreating north across east-central Iowa. I expect to have sleet with a bit of freezing rain mixed in for several hours. I probably got about 1.5 inches of snow before the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Backyard currently. Can't see them well, but there is some fatties mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 There are lightning strikes just north of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Maybe more sleet than freezing rain? Dear god, I have no freaking idea. I will shut up, haha. I was just outside to do chores and it is definitely a solid graupel type precip here. Freezing rain earlier left about 1/8" glaze on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Is it just me, or is this system tracking further west than the models were suggesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Backyard currently. 20151228_093756.jpg Can't see them well, but there is some fatties mixed in. Would love some flakes, but I am happy with anything frozen right now. Beggars can't be choosers. Onshore flow not affecting you too much Geos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Is it just me, or is this system tracking further west than the models were suggesting? Its probably just you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The wind is just absolutely insane right now, especially in those heavier bands, rain is blowing sideways and coming down in sheets, tons of road closures in rural areas. C-G Lightning was reported just SE of Pontiac earlier. This system is impressive, Shame we are only getting straight liquid from this event. Could be the big dog of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think 2-4" of snow is a fair call, with a bit of an SW-NE cline. Can add 1 to maybe 2" of sleet to that total. I pretty much agree. Im thinking we see 1-3" of snowfall with sleet mixed in at times. After 5z, all sleet with some brief ZR before we go over to -RN around 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sleeting like a mf'er here right now. It hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 A dusting of snow so far for Bowme and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Would love some flakes, but I am happy with anything frozen right now. Beggars can't be choosers. Onshore flow not affecting you too much Geos? Well maybe your ground can be white with sleet. Not at all. In fact it is colder than the November storm and guidance for today. Moderate snow, flake size fairly large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 26/21 - I'd say about an 80/20 mix of snow to sleet at this point. 156 850-700 critical thickness line over my head this afternoon, while 1000-850 stays AOB 129 for the entire event. Per the charts I've seen, that would likely indicate mostly sleet but we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Its probably just you. I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Trees white with ice here power outages now becoming widespread nw metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Heavy snow here now. Down to 24° I see headline changes coming... Great call..see our icon for daytime hours went from more icy to just a mix. Can you share any text updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I guess time will tell. Looks to be right on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pinging with the big dogs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Quesiton: Correlation Coefficient is a good indicator of snow vs sleet, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Been lurking around AmWx for awhile now. Figured I'd throw in my obs for the Rogers City/Alpena, MI (NE lower MI) area. Lake effect has been picking up over the past two hours. Strong east winds around 15 mph, variable moderate-light snowfall, temperature currently 21 degrees. Hoping LE continues all day/night along with the storm snowfall, desperately need some snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 LOT update.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1013 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 .UPDATE... 955 AM CST MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS MORNING AND FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. HOWEVER...BASED ON REPORTS VIA EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SOCIAL MEDIA...AND EXPECTED NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WILL BE UPGRADING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN KANKAKEE AND LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES THROUGH 3PM CST. LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ANTICIPATED WARMING OF MAX WET BULB T ALOFT GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT THIS WILL BE COUNTERACTED BE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PULLING ON FEED OF LOWER DEWPOINT AIR OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WETBULBING EFFECTS. WIDESPREAD 30-32 READINGS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...AND EVEN AS LATE AS 20Z IF RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS IN NW INDIANA...AND ALSO SEVERAL REPORTS/PHOTOS ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF ICE ACCUMULATION IN KANKAKEE COUNTY. WILL LEAVE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES SOUTH OF THIS AREA IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES...BUT WILL BE MONITORING TEMP TRENDS CLOSELY. FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED...THOUGH RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE SNOW HAS BEEN PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WOULD EXPECT TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO COMMENCE...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 1-2...LOCALLY 3 INCH RANGE. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER AR/MO BORDER LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL ONLY INCREASE MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS AND ALREADY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE. NO CHANGES TO ONGOING WIND AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HEADLINES. FINALLY...THERE HAVE BEEN SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND INDIANA THIS MORNING IN STRONG WAA REGIME. AS DRY SLOT OF IMPRESSIVE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD AN UPTICK IN OVERALL THUNDER COVERAGE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS WELL AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN TERMS OF CAUSING RAPID CHANGES IN P-TYPES...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. OVERALL...STILL HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR NORTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA TO TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...LATEST MAY BE 7-8PM. CASTRO/RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Been lurking around AmWx for awhile now. Figured I'd throw in my obs for the Rogers City/Alpena, MI (NE lower MI) area. Lake effect has been picking up over the past two hours. Strong east winds around 15 mph, variable moderate-light snowfall, temperature currently 21 degrees. Hoping LE continues all day/night along with the storm snowfall, desperately need some snow around here. Welcome fellow MI guy, your reports from that area will be great. NE lower Mich deserves a good pounding - hopefully this follows through for you up there - good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm nearing 2" of snow now. Been snowing really good the last hour. This winter radar showing the sleet line still down by ORD. Low heading NE towards STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Back to snow now. No decent depth estimate because of the wind. Roads are covered; grass is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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