Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 geos digging deep already (nice city rain signal) Screwed twice in 5 weeks...say it ain't so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Screwed twice in 5 weeks...say it ain't so! all aboard the spring hype train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 geos digging deep already (nice city rain signal) Lake temps by the city are in the low 40s. Not as bad as November, but still meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 18Z GFS still flirting with moving the heaviest axis of snow around: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Might be able to squeeze a couple of inches of SN/PL out of this. Thread the needle wrt cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Levi Cowan apparently afflicted with the same disease as Weatherbell. I hate those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This is much better as it differentiates ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I am surprised the models are ejecting that cutoff out so fast. Would not be surprised to see a slowdown. Upstream kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Trying to stay calm till we get some run to run consistency.Noon GFS looks a lot like the 1200z Euro. The cut off will come out but where it goes, "nobody knows." Models may not have a handle on this till late this weekend. Great eye candy that Scan. ridge bending back over the north Atlantic and creating a legit -NAO. Makes for a hopeless pattern actually having some potential. Happy new model run anticipation for us all this holiday season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Upstream kicker. Yep, plus it does spin down there for a couple days as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 18z GFS for ord http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MI&stn=KORD&model=gfs&time=2015122318&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 GEFS has the 0° line further east than the operational. The two are matched up as closely as the 12z run. Got a laugh at the TT map showing 14" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Was looking at CIPS analogs for this one and perhaps not surprisingly, about half of the analogs were from Nino winters (rest spread out between Nina or neutral) with several events from the 82-83 and 97-98 winters. Obviously too early for details but the general synoptic setup screams ice, and probably over a pretty wide area given that we look to have a relatively deep system that gains a lot of latitude over time vs. more of a bowling ball setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I know it's the end of the NAM run but the 0z NAM has a surface high well west of where the GFS has it at 84hr and stronger too. NAM has it at 1052mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Another note about the CIPS analogs...most of them (like 80%) produced a band of ice in the subforum. The ones that didn't were November events, which may not be great matches since we're almost at the end of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Was looking at CIPS analogs for this one and perhaps not surprisingly, about half of the analogs were from Nino winters (rest spread out between Nina or neutral) with several events from the 82-83 and 97-98 winters. Obviously too early for details but the general synoptic setup screams ice, and probably over a pretty wide area given that we look to have a relatively deep system that gains a lot of latitude over time vs. more of a bowling ball setup. I remember a multi wave system in January of 98 from a situation like this. It was a thread the needle type of snow event I remember. It over performed locally - something like 7 or 8 inches fell when 2-4" were predicted. Heavy wet snow under 10:1. Last map off the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Snow result of the 0z GFS. This system track is far from being pinned down. Farther southeast and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0z GFS even changes my area to a mix for a brief period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Snow result of the 0z GFS. This system track is far from being pinned down. Farther southeast and weaker. It's MUCH slower with ejecting the low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Calling that 'snow' is kind. This is what i mean by rushing the cutoff north. There is a kicker, but I think it would dive further southwest, possibly arriving when all the cold air is gone. It's that bigger piece of energy diving into California that kicks it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It's MUCH slower with ejecting the low though. True. Would be nice to have a deeper cold air mass to feed into it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z GGEM is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It's that bigger piece of energy diving into California that kicks it out. It can only lollygag for so long because of that. Unless there is some change in how the upstream wave gets handled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 6-12" narrow band on the CMC from just south of Kirksville to NW IN to Detroit. - and into Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 6-12" narrow band on the CMC from just south of Kirksville to NW IN to Detroit. - and into Buffalo. Are you sure that's all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Are you sure that's all snow? Usually instantweathermaps are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Reeling this one in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ^Looks very thread the needle like. The type that you sweat up until the final hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ^Looks very thread the needle like. The type that you sweat up until the final hours. I think we've all accepted this will be a classic "thread the needle" special. But, it's better than having nothing to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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