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December 25-29th Storm Disco


Chicago Storm

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From DTX:

 

INITIALLY DRY THERMAL PROFILES MAY YIELD A FEW SNOWFLAKES DURING

INITIAL SATURATION, BUT NOTHING WORTH AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE

FORECAST. INSTEAD, THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES ARE FORECAST TO BE

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. EVEN IN THE

DETROIT METRO AREA, THE WARM NOSE IS MODELED TO BE QUITE ELEVATED

/CENTERED AT 750MB/ TO WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING HIGH

CONFIDENCE IN SLEET AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE TO START. A TRANSITION TO

FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN WILL EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AS STRONG

MOISTURE ADVECTION FORCES SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING. A

SIMILAR EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS

POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ST CLAIR COULD CUT INTO

WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL IN WAYNE/MONROE COUNTY. THIS IS ACCOUNTED

FOR IN THE FORECAST WITH WSW WORDING SUGGESTING LESSER AMOUNTS

TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.

 

I've never heard them mentioning Lk Erie/St. Clair influencing the thermals of Detroit proper compared to "inland" areas. Just viscerally it wouldn't seem to ring true, but I guess if water temps are very warm it's possible?

 

As an eastsider in Detroit proper, that has been an issue (or a saving grace IMO) plenty of times, in the same way Lake Michigan does it for Alek.

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Curious what my father in Ozaukee County WI will get... the NOAA says an inch while many of the models say more like 6-10 inches. Glad I made my trip back from there to here yesterday and not today. Questionable if I'd be able to beat the precip.... it's already approaching Columbus, WI which is about where I'd be on the trip.

 

 

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