A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Out with the dog along the lake, winds already total rippage. Temps still holding at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 From DTX: INITIALLY DRY THERMAL PROFILES MAY YIELD A FEW SNOWFLAKES DURING INITIAL SATURATION, BUT NOTHING WORTH AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. INSTEAD, THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER COLD HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. EVEN IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA, THE WARM NOSE IS MODELED TO BE QUITE ELEVATED /CENTERED AT 750MB/ TO WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SLEET AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE TO START. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN WILL EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FORCES SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ST CLAIR COULD CUT INTO WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL IN WAYNE/MONROE COUNTY. THIS IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST WITH WSW WORDING SUGGESTING LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. I've never heard them mentioning Lk Erie/St. Clair influencing the thermals of Detroit proper compared to "inland" areas. Just viscerally it wouldn't seem to ring true, but I guess if water temps are very warm it's possible? That is pretty much what happened on that Nov storm. Yes I can see some truth to that but then again it is DTX and they do have a history of down playing winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That is pretty much what happened on that Nov storm. Yes I can see some truth to that but then again it is DTX and they do have a history of down playing winter storms.Our problem with the Nov 21st storm was dry slot. We "only" got 4.9" but not a drop of rain. Precip type was 100% snow.As for today? Idk what to think. Nightmare commute home and it will turn to rain anyway. Not looking forward to it. Hoping for sleet not zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 If the lake was at least partially frozen and we had been cold in December , this would be about as close as you can get to a good ice setup in the city as you can get. As it stands we just can't cool off at the surface with this flow off the bathtub. Dominant p-type a log the lakeshore will be plain rain/drizzle with bouts of thundersleet under better returns. Looking at mesoanalysis I'd be leary of frozen amounts even well north into mkx, especially east with such a stout elevated warm layer about to get wrapped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Amarillo forecast 10-18", got 3.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Starting as plain rain. Winds are still sick. Got the whole week off so it will be fun watching netflix and tracking the storm. Might jebwalk some thundersleet and 20 ft waves later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 One of my local mets this morning is predicting 9+ inches of snow, but the snow has already switched to sleet just a bit to the south so I don't see how we will be able to remain snow and get that kind of a total. 3-6" appears more reasonable, with plenty of sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 9.38" as of 6:09 a.m. at WFO STL. Downright incredible rainfall down here. Interstate 70 is shut down and interstate 44 is due to be shut down southwest towards Rolla due to overtopping by the Gasconade River. ...and it's still pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Dang, going for double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Freezing rain is already mixing with the sleet here. Wind's already gusting up to 35mph. Let's see how long the power lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Warm tongue is a monster folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 9.38" as of 6:09 a.m. at WFO STL. Downright incredible rainfall down here. Interstate 70 is shut down and interstate 44 is due to be shut down southwest towards Rolla due to overtopping by the Gasconade River. ...and it's still pouring rain. Wow very impressive from the looks of it you might be able to top 11" before its all over.... I'm just south of the I-72 corridor currently sitting at 5.10" and still rainingWarm tongue is a monster folks+1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Freezing rain is already mixing with the sleet here. Wind's already gusting up to 35mph. Let's see how long the power lasts. What's your temp? Going to be a mess on 80/88/90 away from the lake if ZR is the dominant p type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 What's your temp? Going to be a mess on 80/88/90 away from the lake if ZR is the dominant p type. 31/28. Pretty marginal but if it stays subfreezing it could be a long day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Started as -SN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 31/28. Pretty marginal but if it stays subfreezing it could be a long day. Yeah that's been a hang up of mine, would be a totally different game if places were even 28/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 light snow with sleet in CH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Their's a new meso discussion for northern il about the icing but my phone won't load it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 dat transport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Their's a new meso discussion for northern il about the icing but my phone won't load it not much to add, ZR rates up to .05" per hour across 80/90 still think my under .50 call holds but it will be close in MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Started as -SN here.Switched over to sleet a short time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Band rolling thru Toledo area now is all freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Predominantly freezing rain now, with a few ice pellets from time to time. Temp has gone up almost a half degree though. Was 30.6, and now it's 30.9 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 About to get a little interesting here. Temps just below freezing with a 30 dbz band about to move through. If that's freezing rain then things are going to get hairy quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakingrufus Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Freezing rain and sleet mix here in Lombard / oakbrook. There is a glaze over everything already. Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 31˚/29˚ on my thermometer. Steady -ZR continues after a brief start of some pingers. Pavement is fine in my hood, but everything just above the ground is glazed over quite nicely. Starting to hear the crackle in the trees with the steady wind. Thankful we'll be going above freezing at some point today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 still 36, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Our problem with the Nov 21st storm was dry slot. We "only" got 4.9" but not a drop of rain. Precip type was 100% snow. As for today? Idk what to think. Nightmare commute home and it will turn to rain anyway. Not looking forward to it. Hoping for sleet not zr. Places along the water from the shores up to Algonac barely got anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 still 36, lol Ice, fail. P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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