Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nice^ Snow looks intense for a short time at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Still with a nice band along/south of I-80 Would not be surprised to see part of LOT's advisory area hit warning criteria. Depends on how quickly temperatures rise and how much sleet mixes in of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Low is now over Shreveport, wagons east - slightly. 998mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Low is now over Shreveport, wagons east - slightly. 998mb Loop the map on COD... SLP is heading east with the heavy convection for now. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/surface/index.php?type=sgp-fronts-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Local mets going with 1-2" of snow, the rest mainly sleet and even a tad bit of rain. Unless you think I should be happy with 1-2" snow events with a crapload of sleet, sounds like you're thinking they're going to bust. I actually agree they'll bust a bit, my prediction is 3-4" of snow in total (even if that is not the snow depth at the end) and the rest sleet with maybe a short period of rain. Too low on snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Still with a nice band along/south of I-80 Untitled.png Would not be surprised to see part of LOT's advisory area hit warning criteria. Depends on how quickly temperatures rise and how much sleet mixes in of course. That's significantly less freezing rain in overall coverage compared to the RGEM. Will be interesting to see what verifies. HRRR/NAM/GFS/RGEM/NNM/ARW still in large disagreement for types and amounts of various precip types even at this eleventh hour. Makes it pretty exciting, yet a bit frustrating as well. Final call for here/QC based on latest clusterfuk of guidance... 3" sleet 0.2" freezing rain/glazing 0.2" plain rain 0.1" snow Peak gust at MLI/DVN 55mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Loop the map on COD... SLP is heading east with the heavy convection for now. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/surface/index.php?type=sgp-fronts-1 Not too surprising, it is going to follow the heavy convection for a bit, this usually happens with squall lines down south before the convection starts wrapping into the low as it gets close to starting the occlusion process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah, be careful looking at one surface image and diagnosing a trend with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 SPC has expanded the general thunder area on the day 1 outlook into NE Missouri, SW Michigan and NE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 SPC has expanded the general thunder area on the day 1 outlook into NE Missouri, SW Michigan and NE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 nam4kmCGP_con_mucape_022.gif Thundersleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Thundersleet Slunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Interesting seeing the convection having that effect. Seems like it wants to follow along with the east most models. That would be cool, thunder sleet. Lol. New word for the weather urban dictionary DaveNay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Thundersleet Could happen. Convective elements could influence precip type. You may think you've gone to all rain and then something rolls through with enough localized cooling to perhaps change it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Local mets going with 1-2" of snow, the rest mainly sleet and even a tad bit of rain. Unless you think I should be happy with 1-2" snow events with a crapload of sleet, sounds like you're thinking they're going to bust. I actually agree they'll bust a bit, my prediction is 3-4" of snow in total (even if that is not the snow depth at the end) and the rest sleet with maybe a short period of rain. If we get the kind of precip forecast those temps above freezing between 850- 700 will quickly drop below freezing.IE more snow than sleet! Key is the track and I see that the 000z GEFS ensemble forecast has not budged from its previous runs of tracking the low center over extreme southern lake Michigan.If such be the case you may get a lot more snow than is currently being forecast for your area. Of course it possible the high resolution models have a better handle on this kind of storm than the GFS but given recent up grade to the GEFS am hopeful it is about to show its up graded quality at this point. WPC should be ashamed me thinks of buying the cool aid of their multi model forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z Euro with the surface low just NE of Little Rock at 12z....well east of the 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 SPC has expanded the general thunder area on the day 1 outlook into NE Missouri, SW Michigan and NE Illinois. Freezing Thunder. Haven't seen that yet. Also, the 0Z ECMWF is looking much more icey than the 12Z, kind of CMC like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Getting some 55-65mph gusts already in southeast KS/northeast OK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 On the subject of thunder...decent looking line on the 4 km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 EURO takes the low up near Quincy now. Snow axis moved way east over the I-35 corridor. Last hour SLP moved more NE. Flirting with freezing now. 32.7° currently, with winds steadily increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro much colder at 850mb this run compared to the 12z run centered on 18z tomorrow..made a quick gif comparison http://gifmaker.cc/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=2015122712BETq2fU0h2TP9s30OLFpiG&file=output_79d6Fh.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 ^ 2°C difference is significant when talking precipitation types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Interesting shift on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Interesting point forecast. Never seen a sleet forecast of 1-3" before for this area. Eat you heart out LAF. Rest Of Tonight Blustery...cloudy. A slight chance of sleet after midnight. Sleet likely early in the morning. Little or no new sleet accumulation. Low in the upper 20s. Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph increasing to 35 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Monday Windy. Sleet in the morning...then freezing rain possibly mixed with rain and sleet in the afternoon. Precipitation may be heavy at times. Sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation of one quarter to one half of an inch. High in the mid 30s. East wind 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Monday Night Cloudy. Snow in the evening...then a chance of light snow and patchy freezing drizzle after midnight. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Total snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Low in the lower 30s. East wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 40 mph shifting to the south 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Interesting shift on the euro Trend is your friend right now on the eastern fringes. Getting close to nowcasting time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Point forecast has a high of 31° here now. Ice and sleet wording remain the same. Across the border in WI, 1-2" of snow expected in Kenosha. 0.1-0.2" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Interesting point forecast. Never seen a sleet forecast of 1-3" before for this area. Eat you heart out LAF. Rest Of Tonight Blustery...cloudy. A slight chance of sleet after midnight. Sleet likely early in the morning. Little or no new sleet accumulation. Low in the upper 20s. Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph increasing to 35 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Monday Windy. Sleet in the morning...then freezing rain possibly mixed with rain and sleet in the afternoon. Precipitation may be heavy at times. Sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation of one quarter to one half of an inch. High in the mid 30s. East wind 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Monday Night Cloudy. Snow in the evening...then a chance of light snow and patchy freezing drizzle after midnight. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Total snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Low in the lower 30s. East wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 40 mph shifting to the south 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Had more sleet than that in 2011 but similar winds. You're in for a real treat if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Had more sleet than that in 2011 but similar winds. You're in for a real treat if it pans out. Can't wait lol. I'm on the sleet bandwagon now given the slight southeastward trends this evening. Some of the models would indicate over 5" of sleet verbatim given the 3:1 ratio general rule. Can't really see much snow falling here, or nearby with such strong WAA knifing in from the southeast aloft. Despite some of the southeast trends of the system the intense WAA should keep the appreciable snow accumulations well northwest of this area. A burst or two of heavy snow would be possible given the strong dynamics, but intense WAA should negate that to a few brief bursts here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Trend is your friend right now on the eastern fringes. Getting close to nowcasting time though.Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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