SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 FML Snow or torch, not sleet and ice please. Wouldn't hold my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Wouldn't hold my breath I was lamenting, not predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Before anyone goes and runs with the RGEM verbatim, a comparison of its 03z temps vs. reality shows that it's running too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 SLP on the TX/LA border SW of Shreveport currently. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nothing more miserable than 34 degrees and rain driven by a sustained northeast wind in excess of 25 mph. But we've been spoiled, and this is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Before anyone goes and runs with the RGEM verbatim, a comparison of its 03z temps vs. reality shows that it's running too cold. With surface temps, yes. But it seems to have the temps at 850mb, 925mb and 700mb handled pretty well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Before anyone goes and runs with the RGEM verbatim, a comparison of its 03z temps vs. reality shows that it's running too cold. Yeah. No hard data to back this up but memory tells me that the Canadian model suite is always hot on the ice accums. Was mostly trollin' anyways...I do think 0.5" ice totals will happen but that'll probably be the bullseye max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Using the Kuchera calculations. GFS snowfall. This is conservative compared to the regular 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 With surface temps, yes. But it seems to have the temps at 850mb, 925mb and 700mb handled pretty well... still 38 IMBY and onshore flow hasn't even ramped up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 In areas that receive significant sleet and are borderline in terms of eventually rising above freezing, I wonder if the sleet cover would act to tip things a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm a bit less worried about sig glazing here compared to earlier with these continued ticks southeast. Still could get in on a decent amount, but think the most significant glazing lines up from Keokuk up towards Peru. Still think somewhere in there has a shot of up to an inch of glazing. For here I'm gonna walk back my earlier call of 1/3-1/2" of glazing to 1/4" or less. However it now looks like we could get anywhere from 1-4" of sleet. Not expecting much snow. Maybe a dusting later tomorrow night. EDIT: The NAM now shows 2-2.5" of precip for here/QC, and GFS has 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 WPC says: Discount the GFS PREFERENCE: NON-GFS CONSENSUS...LED BY THE 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOWCENTER EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH EARLY MONAND WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A VERY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE SITUATEDOVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENERGY IS ALREADYFOSTERING A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST TX ANDTHIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY MONAND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUES. THE MIDLEVEL LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN THOUGH RATHER RAPIDLY AS IT REACHESTHE GREAT LAKES AND ENCOUNTERS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCEZONE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY WED...A MUCHWEAKER SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVERVALLEY...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OFMAINE NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE ASOMEWHAT FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTION RELATIVELY TO THE MULTI-MODELCONSENSUS...AND SO A NON-GFS CONSENSUS LED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 In areas that receive significant sleet and are borderline in terms of eventually rising above freezing, I wonder if the sleet cover would act to tip things a tad colder. Yeah I could see that. It's going to be a complex and fascinating evolution of weather conditions across much of the sub with this thing tomorrow. Gonna be fun to watch. I have the ol' laptop charged and ready to go for when the power craps out. Also have the gopro ready to go for a time lapse. Not sure that will be worth a crap if we mainly get sleet, but it's ready nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 NWS Kansas City office saying convection to the south may rob areas farther north of moisture. https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 NWS Kansas City office saying convection to the south may rob areas farther north of moisture. https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author For one, convection has been underachieving, at least up to this point. Furthermore, moisture should have no problem wrapping around into the cold sector with a 60kt LLJ progged to develop and the trough taking on a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 NWS Kansas City office saying convection to the south may rob areas farther north of moisture. https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author I can see that for their area. For most of us though that won't be the case as the orientation of the main body of precip will become negatively tilted later on tonight. Thinking the precip totals east of the MO river, and especially I-35 should remain as well as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah I could see that. It's going to be a complex and fascinating evolution of weather conditions across much of the sub with this thing tomorrow. Gonna be fun to watch. I have the ol' laptop charged and ready to go for when the power craps out. Also have the gopro ready to go for a time lapse. Not sure that will be worth a crap if we mainly get sleet, but it's ready nonetheless. Agreed on the first part. Latest models would suggest a nice shot of sleet here...perhaps an inch using standard sleet ratio. But who knows how it will play out. Small thermal changes either way will be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Effects of the System so far out west: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDCIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGENEW MEXICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY ALBUQUERQUE NEW MEXICORELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM1228 PM MST SUN DEC 27 2015THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF NEW MEXICOEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE STATE GOVERNOR`S OFFICE.HIGH WINDS...HEAVY SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE TO CREATEEXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NEWMEXICO...INCLUDING CHAVES...CURRY...DEBACA...GUADALUPE...ROOSEVELT...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. SNOW DRIFTSOF 4 TO 10 FEET COMBINED WITH LOW TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES...WINDGUSTS RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH AND NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS ARECREATING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE AROUND A BARRICADE. DOING SO...PLACESFIRST RESPONDERS AT RISK AND MINIMIZES THEIR ABILITY TO ASSISTOTHERS IN GREATER NEED. FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PLEASEVISIT NMROADS.COM OR DIAL 5 1 1.$52 OKC065-075-141-281615-BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDCIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGEALTUS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTRELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK1001 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE ALTUSEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND MAYOR OF THE CITY OF ALTUS.DUE TO A POWER FAILURE AT TOM STEED RESERVOIR...CUSTOMERS OF ALTUSWATER ARE ASKED TO CONSERVE WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ICESTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE AREA.TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. PLEASE SEND SNOW AND DAMAGE REPORTS TO THEEMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.BE SAFE. HAVE THREE WAYS TO CHARGE A CELL PHONE. INFORMATION SUCHAS THIS BECOMES UNAVAILABLE IF YOUR CELL PHONE IS DEAD.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 LOT... 1041 PM CST FOR EVENING UPDATE... NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST OR HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM. HAD UPDATED EARLIER FOR LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS... THOUGH RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING/DISSIPATION OF THESE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE ARKLATEX LATE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO POWERFUL UPPER LOW AND UPPER JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE REMAINS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A NEGATIVE-TILT WAVE MONDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST IL MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED WARM-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING FORCING EVENTUALLY LIFTING/FILLING IN PRECIP NORTH INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/PRE-DAWN. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATES WARM NOSE AROUND 775 MB...WHICH INITIALLY LOOKS WARMER THAN FORECAST RAP/GFS SOUNDINGS AROUND THAT TIME. DRY LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE...WITH SOME WET-BULB COOLING LIKELY LEADING TO AN INITIAL RAIN-FREEZING RAIN-SLEET MIX BY MORNING. ALL OF THIS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH GOING FORECAST THINKING AND THUS NO BIG CHANGES MADE IN THE NEAR TERM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 36 over here. Eh. It's gonna be rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 DPA on the 0z GFS at 18z tomorrow...says sleet but geesh is that close to snow if that were to verify. But it most likely will not verify that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 36 over here. Eh. It's gonna be rainy Got ya beat...37. Winds slowly veering though so marine influence here will be waning with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Im going to be traveling from Tulsa to my wife's family in Fort Madison, Iowa on Tuesday. Seems like the latest trends are suggesting a fairly serious freezing rain scenario in extreme southeastern Iowa? Just wanted to see if anyone had any input regarding latest trends for that neck of the woods. May need to tell the ol' father-in-law to invest in a new generator if the ice verifies in conjunction with the forecasted winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 For lols, latest HRRR accumulated snowfall/wintry precipitation/stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 For lols, latest HRRR accumulated snowfall/wintry precipitation/stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 33.8° here with gusty winds. Dewpoint 25° GFS has snow here until 18z also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Also, not so much for lols re: that latest HRRR run, looks like the northern suburbs of Chicago in north Cook county back to Rockford on northward stay mixed precipitation until about 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 For lols, latest HRRR accumulated snowfall/wintry precipitation/stuff. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 nothing to downplay/complain about, his area is going to be crushed. Local mets going with 1-2" of snow, the rest mainly sleet and even a tad bit of rain. Unless you think I should be happy with 1-2" snow events with a crapload of sleet, sounds like you're thinking they're going to bust. I actually agree they'll bust a bit, my prediction is 3-4" of snow in total (even if that is not the snow depth at the end) and the rest sleet with maybe a short period of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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