Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z NAM goes big on the sleet in N. IL...and FZRA in N-C. IL.Visual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z NAM goes big on the sleet in N. IL...and FZRA in N-C. IL. Been wondering if somebody near or south of I-80 actually ends up with the most freezing rain in LOT cwa. Too much sleet could keep freezing rain amounts down farther north. Just have to wait and see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The NAM starts off further SE (initially tracks the low over the MO Bootheel), but ultimately ends up in the same spot as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 DTX, no headline changes until morning: .UPDATE... LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR NOW REACHING INTO THE MONDAYAFTERNOON PERIOD...AND IN CONJUCTION WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS...SIMPLY REINFORCE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF AN ONSET TIME FOR WINTRYPRECIPITATION EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.THIS TIMELINE DOES AFFORD A CLOSER LOOK AT THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODELGUIDANCE BEFORE MOVING FORWARD INTO THE WARNING/ADVISORY PHASE.CURRENT HEADLINES PROPERLY DELINEATE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS AND THEOVERALL MESSAGE...WHILE STILL CONVEYING SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY/PARTICULARLY I-69 SOUTHWARD/ GIVEN THE OVERALL SENSITIVITY THISFORECAST CARRIES IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OFSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILEADVANCES ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO CURRENTHEADLINES THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 HRRR and RAP have the surface low in the 990-992 mb range near the MO/AR border at 15z. That would be on the deeper end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 HRRR and RAP have the surface low in the 990-992 mb range near the MO/AR border at 15z. That would be on the deeper end of guidance. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z/00z NAM comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think that the 4 km Nam def has the best handle on things tonight and that's my model of choice for this event. The Rapid Refresh and the 12 km Nam are not showing the N/NNE winds currently over a large portion of Arkansas, but the 4 Km Nam is. The HRRR as its coming in is showing the same thing as the 0z 4 km Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z RGEM keeps areas near/north of I-88 in N. IL with PL/FZRA through 6PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Most exciting rainstorm of the year on tap, so close but so far x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Some RGEM maps. More here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Safely rain imby on rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z RGEM keeps areas near/north of I-88 in N. IL with PL/FZRA through 6PM. You're so screwed out in the sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sleetfest for me. Boy is all that sleet going to turn everything on the ground into a skating rink. So glad that I'm on winter break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Not taking these numbers verbatim but the general idea that south of I-80 may end up more icy than currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 IWX just upped the Freezing Rain Numbers, almost to Ice Storm Warning levels (they issue one at 0.25) and the RGEM is still at that, and to be fair: It does have a lot of freezing rain south of I-80 INZ003>007-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-281145-/O.CON.KIWX.ZR.Y.0003.151228T1400Z-151229T0000Z/LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON1031 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 /931 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST /8 AMCST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREADURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WARMER AIRLIFTING NORTHWARD SHOULD CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO RAINFROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ONMONDAY.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AREEXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF ICE ACCUMULATIONSBETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANDNORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD.IMPACTS...* DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS AREPOSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF LIGHT ICEACCUMULATIONS.* THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONGEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH MAY RESULT IN SOME TREEDAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Craziest ice map yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looking for some more expert opinions... sleet or freezing rain for northwest 'burbs of Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z/00z NAM comparison output_ZFgQ6s.gif Verbatim that 00z NAM would yield 4.5" of sleet here based on 3:1 ratio lol. Man wouldn't that be something. I used to kind of joke that I wouldn't mind experiencing what LAF had during GHDI, and if NAM is correct I just might. Gonna be a close call between loads of sleet/little glazing, and heavier glazing/less sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Craziest ice map yet Seriously though, no one is seeing 1/2 inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GFS with the snow out in front again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 You're so screwed out in the sticks GAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like more powe outages coming, I finally got my powe back on Saturday what a mess. Doesnt appear my area will be it as hard with the FZ Rain. Hope some of those hardest hit areas have a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Reminds me of zero chance at this being a snowstorm the only thing we baby stepped towards is a lamer rain storm In all seriousness, the model's have been getting more significant this afternoon with the ice, so I don't think anyone really saw it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z GFS takes the SLP near GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Reminds me of In all seriousness, the model's have been getting more significant this afternoon with the ice, so I don't think anyone really saw it coming. Bad example given this isn't going to be a snowstorm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You're so screwed out in the sticks FML Snow or torch, not sleet and ice please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Reminds me of In all seriousness, the model's have been getting more significant this afternoon with the ice, so I don't think anyone really saw it coming. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Bad example given this isn't going to be a snowstorm around here. ...Wisconsin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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