cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z RGEM showing the biggest ice potential thus far... Was just gonna mention that. Yeah, showing 40-50mm 1.50-2.00" over northeast MO. Pretty intimidating map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z RGEM showing the biggest ice potential thus far... Where do you find the RGEM model with freezing rain/sleet accumulation on meteocentre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Believe me, I'm in the part of town in Hillsdale that has consumers and I know I'm going to lose power, and seeing how the NWS offices are taking the low end safe route they probably aren't going to be prepared to fix lines at max capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 DTX doesn't do warnings. They do advisories and upgrade them at the last moment. They can always claim victory that way. I won't let em get away with it though, they busted HARD on Nov 21st. Oh, yeah... the 11" of concrete we got IMBY. They ate crow on that storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Not in this sub, but Omaha looks to keep the hot hand going for snow. They look to receive 8-10" out of this, and they just had 7-10" on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Believe me, I'm in the part of town in Hillsdale that has consumers and I know I'm going to lose power, and seeing how the NWS offices are taking the low end safe route they probably aren't going to be prepared to fix lines at max capacity. That is a good point. If this storm gets as icy and windy as it could, there is going to be absolute mayhem on the power grids. I'm really hoping we don't get much icing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Save worthy zone for Cook county - ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 417 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 ILZ014-281530- COOK- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO 417 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM CST MONDAY ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT... ..HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CST MONDAY TONIGHT CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. BLUSTERY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. MONDAY...VERY WINDY. FREEZING RAIN SLEET OR RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST SUBURBS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. INLAND...EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS INCREASING TO UP TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE LAKE...EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON... GUSTS INCREASING TO UP TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. BLUSTERY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. INLAND... EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE LAKE...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTH AND DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Think I looked at like every possible 12z model lol...anyway, subject to change but my first guess for here would be sleet changing to freezing rain changing to rain with ice amounts perhaps in the 0.15-0.25" range. Always have to keep in mind marine and urban effects around here...as far as marine, winds look to be almost due east or just a bit north of due east which means that there would be little marine influence at my location with most of the marine effects farther up the shore in IL/WI. As has been mentioned numerous times, winds should magnify the impact of whatever ice occurs, but that amount of ice shouldn't be too damaging. Would get more concerned if amounts go over a quarter inch. Think this call from yesterday is still reasonable. If things break right, then the top end of the range or perhaps a bit above would be likely, but just too much uncertainty with temps and even with how long sleet hangs on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just by pure coincidence (as they're going in alphabetical order like is done with Hurricanes), TWC's name for this storm is Goliath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wind has been fairly gusty here today with a long fetch off the lake. Will gradually lose the marine influence as winds veer more easterly and then the real temp/dewpoint watching begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Gusts to 60 in my point Only .10 of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Gusts to 60 in my point Only .10 of ice Not sure if it will happen but would be wild if there's an overlap of sig ice and 60 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ILX going with WSW 0.25" for the Peoria area and points to the NW... .10" along the I-74 corridor with a freezing rain advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z NAM shows me gusting from 35-45mph from 03-06z after it says there is 0.50+ ice accumulation already on my trees, and all models show about 12hrs before the ice begins it will be around 28-29 degrees cooling surfaces down just enough, and it gets started here just after sunset also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Was just gonna mention that. Yeah, showing 40-50mm 1.50-2.00" over northeast MO. Pretty intimidating map. Wow very impressive parts of NE MO would be shutdown awhile if that happens not to mention the winds. could make for a bad situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Forecast has 0.1-0.3" of ice tomorrow here. If the GFS is to be believed, then Madison will be ground zero for the snow. And the model keeps on pushing the snow across the state line into far northern IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The Obs tonight will be what tells the models to raise or lower the ice, this could be very serious. If you need anything I'd go get it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Love when Geos is smelling victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The Obs tonight will be what tells the models to raise or lower the ice, this could be very serious. If you need anything I'd go get it tonight. Already did... I had to get some gas for the generator so I figured I'd pick up some more groceries while I was out. Kroger wasn't even busy but I'll bet the place will be a nuthouse later tonight and in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Forecast has 0.1-0.3" of ice tomorrow here. If the GFS is to be believed, then Madison will be ground zero for the snow. And the model keeps on pushing the snow across the state line into far northern IL... Milwaukee and Madison will be interesting to watch for sure. As things stand now, the soundings for both locations are borderline between seeing Sleet vs. Snow, but could certainly see those type of snowfall amounts happen if no mixing issues occur (definitely a possibility between the convective nature of the precip and the dry NE flow) Maybe wisconsinwx will finally reel in one for once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah where is that goober wisconsinwx And free bowme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Alpena deserves to be ground zero in Michigan. It's been a disaster there over the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I haven't paid much attention to this but I'll be in Racine for this one. Looks fun. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah where is that goober wisconsinwx And free bowme nothing to downplay/complain about, his area is going to be crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 RAP already showing 1-1.50" of precip down in parts of western IL by 10am, with plenty to go. I have a feeling some areas could get close to an inch of glazing, even with sleet dominating the type at onset. Probably some localized areas that can maintain the balance of heavy rain, lack of sleet, and AOB freezing for the longest. Where that ends up happening is difficult to say at this point. Northeast MO/western IL to a little south of the QC is where I think the biggest chance of that happening is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Lol MYBY Buffkit info from 18z GFS just said 0.7" snow, 0.22" sleet, 1.00" freezing rain, 1.72" total qpf lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Does anyone have QPF output handy for the MSP area? I'm up here for Christmas and excited to hopefully get a 6"+ storm. Gonna be close I think but ratios should be good and all Snow here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Free moneyman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Free moneyman He is currently.breaking down hour 24 of the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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