snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It does. Cold air able to hang on longer and allow for a good front end thumping from Iowa to Michigan gfs snow.png Think the OH/IN/MI totals are more sleet/freezing rain as opposed to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Think the OH/IN/MI totals are more sleet/freezing rain as opposed to all snow. Probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looking good, definitely baby steps happening. Wagons southeast. CMC not on board with the high placement and extent of cold air yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Lake MI is up 2" since Nov 18th, 3" higher than this time last year, and 11" above its long term average. Noticed that rise last weekend when I was walking on the beach in Racine County. Beach was a lot narrower. The stretch I was walking has bluffs along it, and there was clear evidence that recent wave action was eating at the bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 06Z GFS increased the snow, has a similar track to the 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 how is this happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 06Z GFS increased the snow, has a similar track to the 0Z I'm ok with a 06z GFS solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 how is this happening I made a deal. With the devil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS looks good for most of IL. 5-6" popping up for northern part of state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 welp, this is turning into a snowstorm isn't it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The later period storm on the GFS is trending nicely for Chicago and N IL peeps, although the Euro was NW on the 0z run. But the trend is definitely your friend. The system late Christmas Day into the 26th looking good for the TC metro. Spread the wealth this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Hey, look at that. Something worth caring about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 welp, this is turning into a snowstorm isn't it "Zero chance" haha. Color me skeptical still. Looks like another pasting if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 welp, this is turning into a snowstorm isn't it thermals have been iffy the last few runs for us but haven't checked soundings yet on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 "Zero chance" terrible call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 terrible call I'm gonna wait for the Euro to bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 AO and NAO fall right before this, so that's probably why things look to be changing. CFS and GGEM are now seeing the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 how is this happening Cold air wrapping in from the east around a massive Quebec high, there is some cold air once you get to northern Quebec. So the solution isn't completely unreasonable, though a lot of things do need to go right. One of them being the high has to be very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cold air wrapping in from the east around a massive Quebec high, there is some cold air once you get to northern Quebec. So the solution isn't completely unreasonable, though a lot of things do need to go right. One of them being the high has to be very strong. And not move eastward too quickly. That's why I've held out some hope for this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 thermals have been iffy the last few runs for us but haven't checked soundings yet on the 12z run. Soundings at ORD, 138 hours and 144 hours. Plenty cold. Early morning snowstorm, good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Someone will get snow... It just might not be you or I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 @ Jonger. Here's a sounding at 144 hours just north of Howell. Just as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 EURO farther southeast with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro takes the surface low into northwestern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro takes the surface low into northwestern IL. Central Wis and the UP get rocked pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's clearly wagons south. Both waves. Ice and sleet to the south of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's clearly wagons south. Both waves. Ice and sleet to the south of the snow. Well, not sure I believe it yet but sign me up for that. Euro and GFS battle possibly on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 GEFS agrees on the baroclinic zone position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 geos digging deep already (nice city rain signal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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