dan123 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 What are your thoughts on this storm blizz? Brett Anderson of accuweather isn't enthused for Toronto and says a few cms of snow before changing to sleet then rain. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A look at H7 VV's on the RGEM. Pretty intense in the WAA zone. 2015122706_054_R1_north@america_I_OMEGA_ww700@gz700_045.png A look at H7 VV's on the RGEM. Pretty intense in the WAA zone. 2015122706_054_R1_north@america_I_OMEGA_ww700@gz700_045.png with deepening closed H5 low and strong ridge on the EC, the orientation of the llj and its associated moisture transport is forced to be delivered into the lower lakes, rather than peeling off to coast like it typically does. I don't think juice is going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Fortunately, this has been a snoozer for the Chicago area. Let's keep it that way for Christmas. No severe mode Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Probably doesn't matter much at this point, but the HRRR and RAP are further SE with the low (over Southern AR versus Eastern OK). They're also about 5mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 DTX added the northern Detroit suburbs to the Winter Storm Watch for Ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Band of LE rain has been affecting NE. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It is going to be an ugly commute tomorrow evening around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Available 12z runs still look icy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The 12z NMM and ARW look very icy for northern IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 LER keeping the faucet on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 +1 for the RGEM seeing the lake effect rain in NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It's gonna come down to how much falls as sleet as opposed to freezing rain for parts of northern IL/IN. Some of the p-type maps could be misleading as well, as areas shown as sleet may actually have freezing rain mixing in with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The 12z NMM and ARW look very icy for northern IL.. NMM still a tick below freezing here at 21z Mon, ARW barely above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 *should* stay snow here for the most part....maybe some sleet. 4 to 8 seems like a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z RGEM track This model really holds the cold air in northern IL awhile. Nasty icing. 28-29° here with all that moisture... Across the lake mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 DTX added the northern Detroit suburbs to the Winter Storm Watch for Ice accumulation. Right move, if it occludes earlier then the WAA gets choked off at the surface and we end up with more ice. Eventually as the low passes to our west we will go above freezing but by then we will have the ice to deal with already. One thing to note though accretion will be a bit slow if the precip rates are too high along with the concrete being warm. Trees and power lines should accrete fairly well which will be bad with the wind expecting to gust to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 In DTX's update, they did say there's a possibility of the Watch being extended further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Right move, if it occludes earlier then the WAA gets choked off at the surface and we end up with more ice. Not even looking forward to this. Edit: I suppose getting some more gas for the generator is probably a wise move, based on the ice and winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO finally locking onto the NAM track. Hopefully it's just mostly sleet for me because I don't want a significant, let alone major, ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Not even looking forward to this. Edit: I suppose getting some more gas for the generator is probably a wise move, based on the ice and winds. Yeah this could be ugly for someone, on the plus side if it keeps ticking south, your area might end up with more sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tough call down into the I-80 corridor and perhaps southward of IL/IN that isn't in the watch area in terms of how long AOB freezing temps can hang on. Certainly some model signals of ice being a bigger deal than current forecasts. As usual in these setups, a lot of nowcasting may be required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Shouldn't be a long period of rain, if at all, around here. Million dollar question is do we see majority freezing rain, sleet, snow or none of those as a majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 repost Not sure if winds are sustained winds or gusts. I'd guess sustained but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro colder too..most places away from the lake with sfc temps of 30 on the nose at 18z tomorrow and then 32/33 at 0z tomorrow evening (0z run at 34/35 at this time) RFD and FEP are still below freezing (30 degrees) at 0z tomorrow evening. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Shouldn't be a long period of rain, if at all, around here. Million dollar question is do we see majority freezing rain, sleet, snow or none of those as a majority. GFS has us both in a heavy snow area about 6pm Monday before the dry slot comes in. That could be fun to watch. Noticing northern lower MI is a a few degrees cooler in most places than the GFS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Enjoy the ice storm guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tough call down into the I-80 corridor and perhaps southward of IL/IN that isn't in the watch area in terms of how long AOB freezing temps can hang on. Certainly some model signals of ice being a bigger deal than current forecasts. As usual in these setups, a lot of nowcasting may be required. Very difficult forecast. Earlier on I was pretty hesitant about glazing potential with lack of snow cover, and strong WAA. However many models are consistently keeping temps AOB freezing. The only model that warms the surface up fairly quickly that I've seen is the ARW. Most of the others keep the freezing line fairly stable during the day. I think no matter what we're pretty much guaranteed to lose power here tomorrow. The strong winds alone would be enough to potentially cause sporadic outages. Even the slightest glazing at all with these winds will mean widespread outages. Major glazing will mean outages for days unfortunately. This is starting to look like one hell of an ice storm for many parts of our sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like a solid 5 to 9" event for Boyne Mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.