Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 With the upcoming wind potential, I can't imagine having wet soil prior to the main event will do any good in areas that get significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 CMC just buries southern/central WI and eastern Iowa. I know Hawkeye isn't craving snow, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ^ Those images are extremely misleading as a large majority of that is sleet. Weatherbell and some of the others have written terrible algorithms when it comes to displaying snowfall. Come to think of it, maybe that's why they wrote them that way to get more dramatic looking colorful map forecasts that will be shared/spread around the internetz like wildfire. More clickz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ^ Those images are extremely misleading as a large majority of that is sleet. Weatherbell and some of the others have written terrible algorithms when it comes to displaying snowfall. Come to think of it, maybe that's why they wrote them that way to get more dramatic looking colorful map forecasts that will be shared/spread around the internetz like wildfire. More clickz. I don't believe anything past 15" about. I seems like PW isn't as extreme as TT or Weatherbell. I do believe the Weatherbell maps are a marketing ploy. GEFS tracks are in a tight band in NE IL/NW IN. Basically right over Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Even this map nails Iowa, and I don't *think* the algorithm is so inaccurate like some of the others. Doesn't mean this will actually verify though haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Saved the current radar mosaic across the eastern part of the US. Amazing long train of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The WPC perfers the UKMET and Euro on this system...: ...DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN PLAINS......ENERGY/SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BYTUES......SYSTEM SHEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY WED...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF RUNSCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOWCENTER EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUN ANDINTERACTING WITH A VERY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED OVER THESOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENERGYIS ALREADY FOSTERING A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE RIOGRANDE VALLEY AND THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVERVALLEY BY EARLY MON AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONBY TUES. THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN THOUGH RATHERRAPIDLY AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES AND ENCOUNTERS A STRONGMID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEWENGLAND. BY EARLY WED...A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT INTOTHE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENTEXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MAINE NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 00ZNAM AGAIN IS GENERALLY TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMAND APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH ITS ENERGY TRAVERSING THE GREATLAKES AND NORTHEAST TUES AND WED. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS SOMEWHATFASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE 00Z UKMET AND 00ZCMC HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE TOWARD IT. THE00Z ECMWF IS OVERALL SLOWER THAN THE OTHER NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...BUTIS FASTER THAN THE NAM. WILL PREFER TO INCORPORATE THE 00Z UKMETALONG WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF...SO THE 12Z/00Z ECMWFRUNS WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE PREFERENCE WHICH WILL ALSO BECLOSE TO THE 12Z ECENS MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GRR's CWA is getting a nice surprise, they haven't sent it yet but it's in there product list on the AFD: .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. CONFIDENCECONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE/LL SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT OCCURFROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.THERE HASN'T BEEN A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO NWP DURING THE LASTSEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/NAM/CMC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THEMAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING FROM TEXAS NEWD TOWARD WISCONSIN BY 12ZTUESDAY. SW MICHIGAN REMAINS IN THE COLDER OCCLUDED PORTION OF THESTORM COMPARED TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFSPRODUCES QUITE A BIT OF ICE.THIS STORM LOOKS LIKE THE CLASSIC ICE STORM FOR SW LOWER MICHIGAN.IT HAS A LOT OF THINGS GOING FOR IT...A STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE NWDFROM THE GULF, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A STRONG HIGHOVER QUEBEC FEEDING COLD DRY AIR IN FROM THE ENE. THERE/S ALSO SOMEINSTABILITY LATE MONDAY THAT COULD ADD TO THE PCPN RATES.IT/S WORTH NOTING THAT GFS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OF30KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT GRR. THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS A SLIGHTINCREASE FROM THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THE NAM GUIDANCE SHOWED SUSTAINEDWINDS IN THE MID 20S. ALL OF THAT SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO50 MPH RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST THE WIND WILL BE ENOUGHTO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. BUT THAT'S ONLY PART OF THEISSUE.FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CLASSING WARM WEDGE OF AIR DEVELOPINGMONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OVERRIDES THECOLDER AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCERAIN IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTHMONDAY. GIVEN SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY...FREEZINGRAIN IS WHAT WE/LL SEE ON THE SFC. AS THE PCPN MOVES NORTH THROUGHTHE LATE AFTERNOON SLEET WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTH OF M-46 BEFORE ITMIXES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV THATDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TOWARD 00Z. THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIALCOULD RESULT IN HIGHER PCPN RATES AND THUS ICE ACCRETION. IT LOOKSCERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF ICEMONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AND THE PCPNCHANGES TO RAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALSO EXPECTED...THISCOMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFCANT INTERRUPTIONS INPOWER WITH DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...NOT TO MENTION THE TRAVELHAZARDS OF THE ICE ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THECWA FROM THE SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE NRN CWA MAY SEE MIXEDSNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PCPN WILL CHANGE TOMIXED RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO QUEBEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Rainfall has been downright incredible down here. Lambert recorded 4.87" of rain for Saturday and I got a similar amount here at the house. It has been rumbling thunder here regularly ALL DAY. The big rivers are rising at 2-3"/hr now, which is scary fast. Worrying to think that this is going to ride most of the day here tomorrow and then follow up with another big encore on Monday. We're going to be breaching some '93 flood levels along and south of STL if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GRR's CWA is getting a nice surprise, they haven't sent it yet but it's in there product list on the AFD: .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE/LL SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT OCCUR FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. THERE HASN'T BEEN A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO NWP DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/NAM/CMC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING FROM TEXAS NEWD TOWARD WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. SW MICHIGAN REMAINS IN THE COLDER OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE STORM COMPARED TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS PRODUCES QUITE A BIT OF ICE. THIS STORM LOOKS LIKE THE CLASSIC ICE STORM FOR SW LOWER MICHIGAN. IT HAS A LOT OF THINGS GOING FOR IT...A STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE NWD FROM THE GULF, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A STRONG HIGH OVER QUEBEC FEEDING COLD DRY AIR IN FROM THE ENE. THERE/S ALSO SOME INSTABILITY LATE MONDAY THAT COULD ADD TO THE PCPN RATES. IT/S WORTH NOTING THAT GFS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT GRR. THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THE NAM GUIDANCE SHOWED SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MID 20S. ALL OF THAT SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST THE WIND WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. BUT THAT'S ONLY PART OF THE ISSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CLASSING WARM WEDGE OF AIR DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCE RAIN IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY. GIVEN SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY...FREEZING RAIN IS WHAT WE/LL SEE ON THE SFC. AS THE PCPN MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SLEET WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTH OF M-46 BEFORE IT MIXES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TOWARD 00Z. THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD RESULT IN HIGHER PCPN RATES AND THUS ICE ACCRETION. IT LOOKS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF ICE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AND THE PCPN CHANGES TO RAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALSO EXPECTED...THIS COMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFCANT INTERRUPTIONS IN POWER WITH DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...NOT TO MENTION THE TRAVEL HAZARDS OF THE ICE ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE NRN CWA MAY SEE MIXED SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PCPN WILL CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO QUEBEC. Yeah we have a winter storm watch for the whole area for a quarter to half inch of ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 They issued it: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI342 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-271645-/O.NEW.KGRR.WS.A.0005.151228T1700Z-151229T1200Z/MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...GREENVILLE...ALMA...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON342 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING.* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICEACCUMULATION.* STRONG EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPHPOSSIBLE.IMPACTS...* SIGNIFICANT ICING ON TREES AND POWER LINES.* STRONG WINDS AND ICING MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.* DRIVING ON ROADS AND WALKING ON SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME VERYHAZARDOUS LEADING TO A MULTITUDE OF ACCIDENTS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...* NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE YOU HAVE GAS FOR BACKUP GENERATORSAND DEICING MATERIAL FOR YOU SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAY.* WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE ATWWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. Makes sense: Not a lot of ice, but really strong winds is a recipe for disaster, a 4-5 on the SPIA scale due to wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If LOT follows this, then they may go with similar amounts to what GRR did, at least for part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If LOT follows this, then they may go with similar amounts to what GRR did, at least for part of the area. day2_pice_gt_25.gif Since, rule of thumb is that's usually going off what the offices have issued for, seeing how the cut off the counties in DTX that didn't get a watch IWX may go for one in Southern MI, Northern IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If LOT follows this, then they may go with similar amounts to what GRR did, at least for part of the area. day2_pice_gt_25.gif Wow, didn't think they'd pull the trigger on that (WPC). Is that the most realistic forecast right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 IWX ain't buying it. No Watch. I really don't get there reasoning, the level of ice with the winds should definitely support some heads up headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 IWX ain't buying it. No Watch. I really don't get there reasoning, the level of ice with the winds should definitely support some heads up headlines. Possibly a WWA which wouldn't be issued until later on, I don't think they will be in warning criteria for winter storm warning due to low level warming after the precipitation arrives, so I buy their lack of a watch. Just as a sidebar, you have been asked to explain posts instead of just making blanket sweeps like "I don't buy this or that" without any bit of reasoning. Either state why you don't or don't just throw the post out there without backing. Almost everyone else here posts and gives reasoning to their posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 06Z GFS came in a little more icey. Especially further into Northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just looking at the headline maps, and without even having read the AFDs, I can tell DTX isn't as enthused as GRR with the wintry potential of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3.52" in the last 24 hours for my tippy bucket. Nothing like getting the month's average in one day. Flood warning warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 NAM looks a touch colder through 15 at 850. Otherwise, not much change. It is interesting to note that the models were too far north with the heavy rain axis wrt to the lead system. Might be a sign that they're not fully capturing the magnitude of the cold air associated with the 1040mb+ high pressure cell over northern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 NAM looks a touch colder through 15 at 850. Otherwise, not much change. It is interesting to note that the models were too far north with the heavy rain axis wrt to the lead system. Might be a sign that they're not fully capturing the magnitude of the cold air associated with the 1040mb+ high pressure cell over northern Ontario. That's possible, but it's still going to be hard getting to prevent the surface low from stacking, given how deep the closed upper level low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's possible, but it's still going to be hard getting to prevent the surface low from stacking, given how deep the closed upper level low is. Yeah, the main part of the narrative of this storm is written in stone. Up here though, it's a question of one degree of cooling to get 5-10" of snow vs. 1-2" of mixed wintry crap. That's still doable. You guys to the SW have more work cut out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Not sure if it's just faster, but the NAM has taken a bit of a noticeable wobble to the east from hours 18-27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah, the main part of the narrative of this storm is written in stone. Up here though, it's a question of one degree of cooling to get 5-10" of snow vs. 1-2" of mixed wintry crap. That's still doable. You guys to the SW have more work cut out for you. Between 06z and 18z Monday, you can see from the pressure fields where the 12z NAM tries to go much further SE with the surface low track, but because the closed low is so deep, the center stills ends up stacking well to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Between 06z and 18z Monday, you can see from the pressure fields where the 12z NAM tries to go much further SE with the surface low track, but because the closed low is so deep, the center stills ends up stacking well to the NW. Earlier maturation/occluding of the storm might help with cutting off the low-level WAA. That's good, if ice storms are your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Earlier maturation/occluding of the storm might help with cutting off the low-level WAA. That's good, if ice storms are your thing. That's our only hope here, which is still a solution that's on the table. The NAM only gets the 850mb temps to about 2*C max when the heavier thumping of QPF comes through (whereas the temps were pushing 5*C celsius last night). So it's a big step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm so glad I bought my inferred thermometer with me on vacation, it's my favorite tool to have with me during an icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Earlier maturation/occluding of the storm might help with cutting off the low-level WAA. That's good, if ice storms are your thing. The 6z RGEM looks pretty interesting. It has ~0.7" of PL/SN mix by the end of the run... and it doesn't look like the WAA has won yet at 48. 925/850's well below zero but the battle is near H7. BTW, nice to hear from you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The 6z RGEM looks pretty interesting. It has ~0.7" of PL/SN mix by the end of the run... and it doesn't look like the WAA has won yet at 48. 925/850's well below zero at the end of the run. BTW, nice to hear from you! Thanks. Not as much of a winter weather weenie as I was even 2-3 years ago but I'll still drop by for a good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A look at H7 VV's on the RGEM. Pretty intense in the WAA zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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