Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Is LOT really considering that whole area in pink to pick up 0.30" of ZR? Wow. In for a heap of trouble if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Lol classic. Maybe he's blind? Maybe he was comparing it to a different 12z run like the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Maybe he was comparing it to a different 12z run like the Euro? Which would make no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Rain. Will wait for my January snowstorm. Been spoiled for 10 years running minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 House shaking boomers here near Decatur (Oreana). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 House shaking boomers here near Decatur (Oreana). Just had some thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Pretty Impressive system so far. Flash Flood Warnings extend from TX to IL 600+ miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looking forward to the overnight discos. Probably won't wait up for them but curious about what LOT will say/do. Wonder if there will be a southward expansion of the winter storm watch or if they won't have enough confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looking forward to the overnight discos. Probably won't wait up for them but curious about what LOT will say/do. Wonder if there will be a southward expansion of the winter storm watch or if they won't have enough confidence. Not holding my breath on GRR going with anything at all tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looking forward to the overnight discos. Probably won't wait up for them but curious about what LOT will say/do. Wonder if there will be a southward expansion of the winter storm watch or if they won't have enough confidence. IWX won't do anything this morning, if the 06 and 12Z runs keep getting more icey they may issue a Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Not holding my breath on GRR going with anything at all tbh. I would wait till after the 12z runs. Much may also depend on what the euro does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z GEM has the low down to 988mb west of STL at 18z Monday. One of the deeper solutions I've noticed recently. Wondering if the slight southeastward shift on recent runs is from the impact of convection along the BL. We all know how that can impact boundaries in the warm season. Probably not as pronounced, but maybe the models had underestimated the impact of heavy convection along the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's what I was thinking just now Cyclone. Meanwhile.. UK MET coming in SE also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z GEM has the low down to 988mb west of STL at 18z Monday. One of the deeper solutions I've noticed recently. Wondering if the slight southeastward shift on recent runs is from the impact of convection along the BL. We all know how that can impact boundaries in the warm season. Probably not as pronounced, but maybe the models had underestimated the impact of heavy convection along the baroclinic zone. Pretty unusual (and frustrating) to see a SE shift happen AND the storm trend stronger. Both happening at the same time sort of cancels out any benefits for those holding out for a more wintry solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nice moderate-heavy rain going here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Pretty unusual (and frustrating) to see a SE shift happen AND the storm trend stronger. Both happening at the same time sort of cancels out any benefits for those holding out for a more wintry solution. Yeah. Since deep convection looks to continue along the boundary maybe we'll see some additional tweaks southeast in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z GEM has the low down to 988mb west of STL at 18z Monday. One of the deeper solutions I've noticed recently. Wondering if the slight southeastward shift on recent runs is from the impact of convection along the BL. We all know how that can impact boundaries in the warm season. Probably not as pronounced, but maybe the models had underestimated the impact of heavy convection along the baroclinic zone. 57 mb gradient Still a decent discrepancy in the surface low intensity for this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Pretty amazing to see some upper 60 degree dews showing up downstate in southern IL. That's a very soupy air mass for late Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Check out some of these obs out of New Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 57 mb gradient gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png Still a decent discrepancy in the surface low intensity for this close. That's one heck of a gradient. Not in this sub, but our storm is kicking up some serious winds in the cold sector down in eastern NM and the panhandle of TX. 82mph recently on the eastern side of Clovis NM! EDIT: Ninja'd by Hoosier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 57 mb gradient gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png Still a decent discrepancy in the surface low intensity for this close. This hasn't been really been discussed as much as the threat for Ice, but with that type of gradient and the 50-60kt LLJ, another thing to also keep an eye on will be potential blizzard conditions from NE Iowa / SE Minnesota through Central WI and Northern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Pretty unusual (and frustrating) to see a SE shift happen AND the storm trend stronger. Both happening at the same time sort of cancels out any benefits for those holding out for a more wintry solution. Not for those who are now just NW of the projected track on some of the models. If the models trended weaker while trending SE, QPF in the cold sector would likely decrease as well, so I find that should counteract the negative of the models trending SE but stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO taking the low into central Iowa again... It is perhaps the only model that has not trended SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro is the only outlier this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro is the only outlier this run... Makes sense since the Euro typically doesn't do well with convection, even in the near/short term, that it would be last to the party on a shift that is likely due to deep convection shifting the baroclinic zone to the SE. If it does pull the coup, all the other models were lost on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Makes sense since the Euro typically doesn't do well with convection, even in the near/short term, that it would be last to the party on a shift that is likely due to deep convection shifting the baroclinic zone to the SE. If it does pull the coup, all the other models were lost on this. I'm not saying you're wrong, but is there any reason to think the Euro would do worse with convection than other global models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Makes sense since the Euro typically doesn't do well with convection, even in the near/short term, that it would be last to the party on a shift that is likely due to deep convection shifting the baroclinic zone to the SE. If it does pull the coup, all the other models were lost on this. It was last to get a clue for the November snowstorm. I think it will get it by the 12z run tomorrow. I could see the other models continuing the SE bleeding a couple more runs. Convection is intense down to the south. Here only 0.15" of rain today. CMC tracking the low right over head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm not saying you're wrong, but is there any reason to think the Euro would do worse with convection than other global models? Well it would do worse than the GFS, and NAM especially (given its higher resolution). Probably similar to the GEM, though, which has been in the SE camp for awhile, even before the convection appeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO taking the low into central Iowa again... It is perhaps the only model that has not trended SE. It did move east somewhat. Not as significant of a change that the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ILC053-075-091-105-INC007-073-111-271715- /O.NEW.KLOT.FA.W.0019.151227T0520Z-151227T1715Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ IROQUOIS IL-FORD IL-LIVINGSTON IL-KANKAKEE IL-JASPER IN-BENTON IN- NEWTON IN- 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR... IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 1115 AM CST SUNDAY/1215 PM EST SUNDAY/ * AT 1115 PM CST /1215 AM EST/...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING. AS MUCH AS THREE TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SINCE EARLY SATURDAY SOUTH OF U.S. 24...AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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