Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Winter storm watches up for the N, NW suburbs, north central IL and all of S WI now. MKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI313 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015...ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTERY WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....A MIXED BAG OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO SPREADACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITHTHE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRALWISCONSIN.SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE UP TO ONE INCH ON MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLEACCUMULATIONS OF ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLEOVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MONDAYNIGHT.IN ADDITION...STRONG EAST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 45 MPH MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS AND ICING MAY CAUSEFALLING TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.HENCE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING POSTED FOR ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTERY MIX WILL BELOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL TRACKNORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY...AND ACROSS WISCONSINMONDAY NIGHT.WIZ062>072-270515-/O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0004.151228T1500Z-151229T0300Z/IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA313 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNINGTHROUGH MONDAY EVENING.* TIMING...FROM MID-MORNING MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE FARSOUTHEAST TO 3 TO 6 INCHES TOWARD DARLINGTON AND DODGEVILLE.* FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.* WINDS...EAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL POWEROUTAGES FROM FALLING TREE LIMBS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$ LOT URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL332 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015ILZ003>006-008-010>012-270545-/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0005.151228T1200Z-151229T0000Z/WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA332 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAYAFTERNOON.* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH ALONG WITHSOME SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.* WINDS...EAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH POSSIBLE.* OTHER IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DANGEROUS WITH ICE COVEREDROADS. TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN WITH POWEROUTAGES POSSIBLE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BAND OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 AND HIGHWAY 30...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY IN OUR NW CWA. I can see an ice storm warning in counties to my south by tomorrow morning/afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 18z GFS is actually se of the 12z run. Wouldn't make anything of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 18z GFS is actually se of the 12z run. Wouldn't make anything of it yet. Yep was just comparing the two..one can hope but yeah agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 18z RGEM wind gust map with widespread 50+ mph gust potential at 18z Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm thinking that this storm will be very similar to December 1, 2007 in terms of winds/precip type in Iowa. I lucked out during that storm as I got almost entirely sleet except for the final 90 minutes of the storm. I remember the power flickering several times during the latter part of the storm. The difference between that storm and this storm is that there won't be any point in the foreseeable future when temps go above freezing. In other words, the ice is going to linger around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yep was just comparing the two..one can hope but yeah agree Here is hope! A few more shifts like that again to the se and we would be back in business! Still nearly 60hrs to go before start time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Monday night is going to have an Oregon Coast during a gale vibe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Check out the difference between the 18z NAM and GFS...18z GFS is quicker with north/east precip expansion, and has much more freezing rain than the NAM. This is only through 00z Tuesday. Small details are big in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 LooKS liquid either way you slice it imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Check out the difference between the 18z NAM and GFS...18z GFS is quicker with north/east precip expansion, and has much more freezing rain than the NAM. This is only through 00z Tuesday. Small details are big in these setups. nc.namacctype18-19.gif nc.gfsacctype18-19.gif 18z NAM has two tenths of an inch of ice for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 LooKS liquid either way you slice it imby I think you could have a period of decent pingers there shortly after onset...assuming the inferno near-surface layer doesn't melt it before reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Here is hope! A few more shifts like that again to the se and we would be back in business! Still nearly 60hrs to go before start time! We have seen 60hr miracles like that happen in the past, so you never know. It still wouldn't take a whole lot of Olympics to get solutions like we had Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The way this storm wraps up there looks like there could be some wild swings in precip types throughout the day/night in certain areas. For here the 4km NAM starts us as sleet in the morning, and then freezing rain for awhile in the afternoon. Then a period of heavy rain before a short dry slot, followed by a period of heavy snow in the mid evening lol. GFS isn't quite as drastic, and doesn't crash the rain/mix line southeast as fast once the storm begins to weaken. The only thing I'm for sure about at this point is it's going to get very windy on Monday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Satellite simulations look pretty sweet for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Here's the latest ice accum forecast from Des Moines. Attn: Nate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Here's the latest ice accum forecast from Des Moines. Attn: Nate. I saw that a bit earlier. Not February 24, 2007 caliber as that was widespread, but possibly December 1, 2007 caliber. Hopefully the heaviest axis of icing doesn't shift any further north... Of course, even with just a quarter of an inch of ice, the winds will be a problem. EDIT: That reminds me, I'm thinking that parts of Linn County on December 1, 2007 got about a half inch of ice. I believe I only got about a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I saw that a bit earlier. Not February 24, 2007 caliber as that was widespread, but possibly December 1, 2007 caliber. Hopefully the heaviest axis of icing doesn't shift any further north... Of course, even with just a quarter of an inch of ice, the winds will be a problem. Hunch is we are done with the north trend. Just a hunch based off the 18z GFS ENS ( Which followed the op GFS ) etc today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I saw that a bit earlier. Not February 24, 2007 caliber as that was widespread, but possibly December 1, 2007 caliber. Hopefully the heaviest axis of icing doesn't shift any further north... Of course, even with just a quarter of an inch of ice, the winds will be a problem. EDIT: That reminds me, I'm thinking that parts of Linn County on December 1, 2007 got about a half inch of ice. I believe I only got about a quarter inch. 12/1/07 was probably the 2nd biggest ice storm I've ever seen. Had about 3/4" glazing here. Many trees around the neighborhood had damage. Had almost entirely all freezing rain with little sleet. Temps also started out very cold, which helped to get things glazing up quite quickly. The biggest ice storm I've ever seen is 12/6/94 when I was in high school in the QC. Had at least an inch of glazing with tremendous tree damage all over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12/1/07 was probably the 2nd biggest ice storm I've ever seen. Had about 3/4" glazing here. Many trees around the neighborhood had damage. Had almost entirely all freezing rain with little sleet. Temps also started out very cold, which helped to get things glazing up quite quickly. The biggest ice storm I've ever seen is 12/6/94 when I was in high school in the QC. Had at least an inch of glazing with tremendous tree damage all over the area. I remember that 12/1/2007 event. Was in LAF then and there wasn't much there but it was a pretty good ice storm where I am now. Looks like that was a windy storm but gusts stayed below 40 mph in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Pretty crazy to see 5-7" snowfall amounts a stone's thrown away from here. Weird look to the snowfall pattern in SE WI. That little 3" finger of snow over Cyclone... For comparison. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Not liking the Euro..that low placement doesn't seem right for a big dumping of snow for these parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I remember that 12/1/2007 event. Was in LAF then and there wasn't much there but it was a pretty good ice storm where I am now. Looks like that was a windy storm but gusts stayed below 40 mph in most areas. IIRC the freezing rain ended early in the evening, and then we rose well above freezing for the rest of the night. Think that really saved us from more damage/longer power outages, etc. Here's a pic I snapped with the old point and shoot camera early that evening. https://www.flickr.com/photos/jwright77/2091580383/in/dateposted-public/lightbox/ Pretty crazy to see 5-7" snowfall amounts a stone's thrown away from here. Weird look to the snowfall pattern in SE WI. That little 3" finger of snow over Cyclone... GFS_122815snowfall.png So now the storm is giving me the finger lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 We have seen 60hr miracles like that happen in the past, so you never know. It still wouldn't take a whole lot of Olympics to get solutions like we had Christmas Eve. Have seen them occur elsewhere but not here imby as far as snow goes. Usually it has been the case of the rug getting pulled out here at the last possible second while someplace else got the miracle. See that Dec 1st 2007 event being mentioned. I believe there was one the year before as well in early Dec 2006. Would be awesome to be on the good ( snowy ) side of one of those miracles. But yeah you are right it wouldn't take a whole lot but will it? ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Have seen them occur elsewhere but not here imby as far as snow goes. Usually it has been the case of the rug getting pulled out here at the last possible second while someplace else got the miracle. See that Dec 1st 2007 event being mentioned. I believe there was one the year before as well in early Dec 2006. Would be awesome to be on the good ( snowy ) side of one of those miracles. But yeah you are right it wouldn't take a whole lot but will it? ha! Even if we can't get the track to shift, just getting temps a LITTLE colder can still yield a decent front-end thumping of snow. So I won't totally give up until the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Was looking at what happened here during that 12/1/07 storm. Picked up 2" of snow and 0.4" of sleet before it went to freezing rain, then rain really late that day. Must have been a real slopfest. GFS is interesting, goes from sleet and snow to freezing rain, then snow, then rain before the dry slot hits and then that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Noticed that the models (especially the NAM and ECMWF) have some modest elevated instability here on Monday...right around the time when temps should be going above freezing. SPC outlook actually has general thunder close to I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like some pretty significant damage in the NE Dallas suburbs from a tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 0z NAM came east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z NAM coming in more icy in general. Trending toward other guidance with faster precip initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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