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December 25-29th Storm Disco


Chicago Storm

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12z Euro has the low around WI Dells at hr 72, west of the GFS/GEM

Just curious... Where was it at 84 on the 0z... Asked another way, how big of a shift east is the 12z relative to 0z? Based on tropical tidbits it looks like it may be a tick west as compared to 12z yesterday. I feel like we are riding the line up here in MSP, especially for me in the far west metro. Although even the GFS tries to throw us a couple inches back this way.

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I think the farthest south track was with the CMC and it took the low across Cairo, IL to just north of Evansville and up through western IN. That was only one run though.

 

A couple GFS runs took the low between Cleveland and Toledo.

 

The problem was it was being too stingy with the cold sector precip, which is why its progged snowfall amounts were so low. 

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Just curious... Where was it at 84 on the 0z... Asked another way, how big of a shift east is the 12z relative to 0z? Based on tropical tidbits it looks like it may be a tick west as compared to 12z yesterday. I feel like we are riding the line up here in MSP, especially for me in the far west metro. Although even the GFS tries to throw us a couple inches back this way.

I'm using my phone at the moment so I can't access the good data. But using the Wunderground 12z Euro map it appears there is a bullseye of heavy snow around MSP and E/C MN. Swath of 12".

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Just curious... Where was it at 84 on the 0z... Asked another way, how big of a shift east is the 12z relative to 0z? Based on tropical tidbits it looks like it may be a tick west as compared to 12z yesterday. I feel like we are riding the line up here in MSP, especially for me in the far west metro. Although even the GFS tries to throw us a couple inches back this way.

 

Nah, you're fine in the Twin Cities.

EURO snowfall map over-layed onto GE.

 

post-7389-0-24174900-1451158489_thumb.pn

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12z guidance continues to show some impressive wind potential Monday north of the low.  The 4km NAM shows a broad area of 20-30kts sustained winds across the corn belt.  Winds up at 900mb are in the 55-65kt range.  The GFS even shows a pocket of 70kts at 850mb over northern IL at 18z Monday.  With bands of heavy precip moving through I'm thinking there could be some mixing down of some of that higher momentum stuff.  Maybe we can even get some gravity wave action for some further enhancement.  At the least it's looking like a period of advisory level winds to be sure.  Wouldn't rule out the need for a warning, especially along Lake Michigan.  With freezing rain/winter weather advisories in place by that time it may make for some messy headlines.  I guess we'll see.

 

These are from the 12z 4km NAM.

 

2eekk89.jpg
 
2010fti.jpg
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12z guidance continues to show some impressive wind potential Monday north of the low.  The 4km NAM shows a broad area of 20-30kts sustained winds across the corn belt.  Winds up at 900mb are in the 55-65kt range.  The GFS even shows a pocket of 70kts at 850mb over northern IL at 18z Monday.  With bands of heavy precip moving through I'm thinking there could be some mixing down of some of that higher momentum stuff.  Maybe we can even get some gravity wave action for some further enhancement.  At the least it's looking like a period of advisory level winds to be sure.  Wouldn't rule out the need for a warning, especially along Lake Michigan.  With freezing rain/winter weather advisories in place by that time it may make for some messy headlines.  I guess we'll see.

 

These are from the 12z 4km NAM.

 

2eekk89.jpg
 
2010fti.jpg

 

 

 

There's that low level cold/stable layer to contend with though, so I'm not sure how deep mixing will be.  That being said, the NAM has winds as low as 950 mb in the 40-45 kt range, and that's with its weaker solution.  GFS is more like 45-55 kts at 950 mb. 

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Unfortunately, it's looking like a bust for my neck of the woods in Toronto. Just not enough cold air and too much moderation from Lake Ontario. Ottawa and Montreal look to really cash in, though, especially on Tuesday.

Really? You should look at the models again. All ideals give yyz a decent snow before the changeover

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Nah, you're fine in the Twin Cities.

EURO snowfall map over-layed onto GE.

 

attachicon.gifeuro12z_mnwi.png

 

 

I'm using my phone at the moment so I can't access the good data. But using the Wunderground 12z Euro map it appears there is a bullseye of heavy snow around MSP and E/C MN. Swath of 12".

Thanks for the intel.  I know it is outside of this forum but damn that map convinces me that NW IA and Souix Falls have found and activated their snow magnets this year.  They have been reeling it in all fall.

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Nah, you're fine in the Twin Cities.

EURO snowfall map over-layed onto GE.

attachicon.gifeuro12z_mnwi.png

I'm down with that - just arrived in Bloomington for the week. On the drive up today, the ground was dusted starting around 40 miles north of the Dells. Looks like about 3 or 4" here on the southwest side. Nice to see ponds and lakes iced and covered as well - as close as Eau Claire things were still open.
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Think I looked at like every possible 12z model lol...anyway, subject to change but my first guess for here would be sleet changing to freezing rain changing to rain with ice amounts perhaps in the 0.15-0.25" range.  Always have to keep in mind marine and urban effects around here...as far as marine, winds look to be almost due east or just a bit north of due east which means that there would be little marine influence at my location with most of the marine effects farther up the shore in IL/WI.

 

As has been mentioned numerous times, winds should magnify the impact of whatever ice occurs, but that amount of ice shouldn't be too damaging.  Would get more concerned if amounts go over a quarter inch.   

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LOT afternoon disco

 

 


314 PM...FORECAST FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REMAINS FREEZING RAIN AND  ICE ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND LAKE  SHORE FLOODING POTENTIAL.    STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX SUNDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH  TO NORTHWEST IL OR NORTHEAST IA MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY  CONVERGING ON THIS TRACK THOUGH SPEED OF THE LOW HAS SLOWED JUST A  BIT...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT  SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.    TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 30S SUNDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY  DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO NEAR FREEZING FROM THE CHICAGO  LAKEFRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL EARLY  MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF MAINLY SLEET...POSSIBLY  MIXED WITH SOME SNOW...BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.  TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY...  TRANSITIONING PRECIP OVER TO JUST RAIN AND HAVE SPED UP THIS CHANGE  OVER TO RAIN JUST A BIT IN THE GRIDS.    THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE FALLING WHILE TEMPS ARE  STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND CAN THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS KEEP  ENOUGH COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN UNDER THE FALLING PRECIP TO  KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ITS GOING TO  BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE WARMER AIR SPREADING NORTH ALONG WITH WARMER  RAIN FALLING VS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN. IN ADDITION...TEMPS  ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND SOME DISTANCE INLAND...MAY REMAIN  AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE MAINTAINED ICE AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 0.1  TO 0.2 INCH RANGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY  ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH THESE AMOUNTS...AND  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW LONG PRECIP CAN REMAIN FREEZING  RAIN...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PART OF THE  NORTHERN CWA. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF THE WATCH  AREA AS THE EVENT NEARS.    AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER  PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT FROM EARLY  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE  1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...THUS THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON  ALREADY HIGH/ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS.    AS THIS LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL  RAPIDLY TIGHTEN WITH VERY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.  CURRENTLY HAVE WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH MONDAY BUT ITS POSSIBLE WINDS  GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL  AND ALONG THE LAKE FRONT. NO HEADLINES FOR THESE WINDS YET EITHER...  BUT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL  BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA...THUS  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.    THESE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PILE UP THE WAVES ALONG THE IL LAKE  MICHIGAN SHORE AND ITS POSSIBLE WAVES MAY REACH 14 TO 18 FEET...  ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NORTHERLY ISLAND AND WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE  SHORE FLOOD WATCH FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL FROM MONDAY  MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
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MPX isn't very good at updating their graphics. That was from this morning. Their morning disco focuses on the Euro.

Winter Storm Watches posted for MN and WI. Currently 6-10" in the point for this storm. This after 3-4" this morning. Reeling winter in, finally.

 

Congrats on the 3-4"! :snowing:

 

ARX is on top of their graphics.

DLL better get his shovel out.

 

FileL.png?rand=62847

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