Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Leading edge of the precip. shield will be eaten up for awhile - no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yeah this is looking more and more like a rain storm with minimal wintry weather here. The trends of further northwest and stronger have been running for a day now outside of the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Heaviest axis runs from around STL, to just north of IND to TOL. Thanks appreciate it should be a interesting next few days around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Leading edge of the precip. shield will be eaten up for awhile - no doubt. Sounding for ORD is dry as a bone from about 850mb - 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 With the way the models are bouncing around it's definitely gonna take another day or two to pin down the best glazing potential. A lot of the precip forecast displays from various models indicate more sleet than freezing rain in the transition areas, but those probably aren't the most accurate. The lack of snow cover over most of the region is a bit of a concern. Snow cover can help delay WAA to some extent at the surface, but we won't have that pretty much anywhere in the impact area. The only tool to maintain a subfreezing surface layer is the dry easterlies on the south side of that big high pressure. Whatever glazing we get will probably be significantly less than what we would have received if a substantial snow pack was in place region wide. I'm thinking for most of us it will be either sleet or rain. Thanks...and good point about lack of snowcover. Just going to post this as an example...here's a forecast sounding for South Bend at 18z Monday. Besides the ridiculous low level winds, look at the temperature profile. It has sfc temps a little above freezing but about -2C as close up as 950 mb and colder just above that. Also note that the lowest km still has winds out of the east. I guess I'm wondering how realistic that is or if it would be more like 31-32 at the surface given those temps just off the deck. One thing is for sure...a couple degrees colder and this would get extremely ugly. I guess you can say that about a lot of ice setups though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Canadian ensembles are split pretty evenly. Control lines up with the OP, ensemble members pretty much half north, half south. ...whereas the GFS ensembles are pretty comfortable with their solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 06Z NAM so far is hinting at more severe flooding starting tomorrow night, if the GFS agrees they may wanna expand that FFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 06Z NAM coming in southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 06Z NAM coming in southeast... Looks the same to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks the same to me? It's a tad southeast in the end, first few frames were way southeast in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks the same to me? Yea I don't see any difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 One big difference on the 06 NAM is that the freezing rain area is less hampered. Leading to more significant accumulation across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 247 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2015 Confidence continues to increase that a high impact and potentially historic flooding event will unfold this afternoon through Monday. Life threatening flash flooding along creeks/streams and other low lying areas is expected, along with major to historic flooding on area rivers. The forecast itself has not changed much at all with widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches across the southeast half of the CWA. There was a slight northwest adjustment to the heaviest axis of rainfall in the 00Z guidance, but this did not impact headlines. Showers and thunderstorms are quickly developing to our southwest and advecting northeast toward the CWA as the warm front begins to lift north. Believe coverage will become widespread by this afternoon as a perfect recipe for heavy rainfall aligns overhead. Key feature is a back building anticyclonically curved upper level jet that will enduce an ageostrophic response, increasing frontogenesis and therefore upward vertical motion. The focused forcing and flow aloft parallel to the frontal zone, favors training convection. Can`t rule a few strong or severe storms occuring this afternoon and evening along and south of the front as well. The heaviest rainfall from this prolonged event will occur from this afternoon through Sunday morning with a broad area of 3 to 5 inches occurring. The convective nature of this precipitation could produce locally higher amounts, especially if training persists. CVKING .LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2015 The front should sag south on Sunday, shifting the axis of heaviest rainfall to the southern third of the CWA. The final wave of potentially heavy rainfall will occur Sunday night into Monday as a strong closed upper low and the associated vertically stacked system lifts north/northeast through the middle Mississippi River Valley. Due to the warm air aloft and track of the system, believe the prospect of any wintry preciptiation remains very low. Generally have painted another 1 to 3 inches of rain with the system itself to come up with event total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 FWIW, I was poking around on the CIPS site using various domains and came across 12/3/1990. Anyone remember that storm? Madison got 17 inches out of that one.Day time storm. Traffic was snarled to say the least! But system was more of an open wave not a slow moving cut off coming out like this one. .Fear this one will have too much sleet to get a that kind of snow in Madison.,GFS 000Z track however encouraging! There was supposed to be an earth quake in the mid west that day to rival one in 1816.Instead we got 17 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 New LOT AFD offering reasoning for a west track. LAST EVENINGS RAOBS INDICATED A STRONG JET STREAM MAXIMUM OF AROUND 150 KT DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL CUT OFF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO BORDER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL EVOLVE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER JET MAXIMUM DIGGING UPSTREAM. A CUTOFF FEATURE SUCH AS THIS LOW AND BEING FAIRLY FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE TENDS TO END UP BEING SLOWER THAN A MEAN MODEL SOLUTION AND WE HAVE SEEN THAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS WITH SYSTEMS LOCATED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. SUCH A SLOWER EVOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH IS ADVERTISED BY THE PREFERRED EC...NAM...AND SREF MORE SO THAN THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE...AND THE GEM. THE OVERALL TREND IN A MEAN OF ALL THESE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FURTHER SUPPORTING LEANING THIS ROUTE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT COULD OFFER SOME BLOCKING AND SUPPORT A FURTHER EAST TRACK IN THE LOW IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...AGAIN FAVORING LEANING WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 06 NAM with the low in NE Kansas at hr 66. The GFS a tick to the west from 0z but still a whole state east of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z GFS hasn't changed much in terms of track but it does show some serious WAA in eastern Iowa and Illinois. Puts Cedar Rapids in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Sitting at 1.25" already...Rain started about hour and a half ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks like a lot of snow up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks like a lot of snow up here... Looks like you're in a sweet spot. MPX seems to be leaning on the Euro/NAM track, putting the TC metro in the heavy snow. Let's see what the 12z Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 One thing that I'm hoping is that the strong WAA will turn us from freezing rain to just plain rain because the forecast doesn't sound good for us. A quarter inch of ice plus strong east winds mean trouble, although nowhere near the magnitude of February 24, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Sitting at 1.25" already...Rain started about hour and a half ago Had a big clap of thunder a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM not budging on sleet and freezing rain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 09z SREF plumes for MSP show a cluster over 10" and a big dog of 18", with a mean of 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 NAM is still out to lunch it would seem (strength wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Unfortunately, it's looking like a bust for my neck of the woods in Toronto. Just not enough cold air and too much moderation from Lake Ontario. Ottawa and Montreal look to really cash in, though, especially on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Had a big clap of thunder a little while ago. Their was some pretty good lightning when the first cluster of storms came through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 NAM is very slow to saturate here (very dry layer aloft). How quickly we can get precip reaching the ground may play a role in ice amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 FWIW, I was poking around on the CIPS site using various domains and came across 12/3/1990. Anyone remember that storm? I believe this storm gave the Madison, WI area it's highest 2 day snow total on record at 17+" inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Euro no longer taking the low through central Iowa. Instead, it takes the low through eastern Iowa, although it's between hour 48 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.