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December 25-29th Storm Disco


Chicago Storm

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00z GEM would be a sleet storm for the ages for this area. Heavy sleet for 12hrs+ verbatim. Would possibly give the GHD11 LAF sleet storm a run for it's money lol.

I pray for your soul if that happens. I still wake up with nightmares from that storm.

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For 95% of us it's looking like it's going to come down to how much cold air holds before the WAA overtakes and changes it to rain.  Snow is looking pretty meager for all but the far northwest portion of the sub.  My gut feeling for here is we see a period of heavy sleet before switching over to all rain, and then dry slot/drizzle fest.  

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The main differences I'm seeing between last night's runs with the further SE track and tonight's runs with the further NW track is that the models trended deeper with with the primary shortwave (closed off low) and slightly weaker with the lead shortwave.


 


A deeper closed low of course allows for more rapid cyclonegenesis/stacking (ala the NAM) to occur. Meanwhile, tomorrow's lead wave just being slightly stronger would help to push the baroclinic zone and the CAA from the arctic high seep further south before the primary shortwave ejects. 


 


So it wouldn't take much to get back to the colder / SE solution we had before. 

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The main differences I'm seeing between last night's runs with the further SE track and tonight's runs with the further NW track is that the models trended deeper with with the primary shortwave (closed off low) and slightly weaker with the lead shortwave.

 

A deeper closed low of course allows for more rapid cyclonegenesis/stacking (ala the NAM) to occur. Meanwhile, tomorrow's lead wave just being slightly stronger would help to push the baroclinic zone and the CAA from the arctic high seep further south before the primary shortwave ejects. 

 

So it wouldn't take much to get back to the colder / SE solution we had before. 

 

 

That's a fair point that a lot of local met's brought up, we will probably have a better idea during the 12 and 18Z Runs.

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For 95% of us it's looking like it's going to come down to how much cold air holds before the WAA overtakes and changes it to rain.  Snow is looking pretty meager for all but the far northwest portion of the sub.  My gut feeling for here is we see a period of heavy sleet before switching over to all rain, and then dry slot/drizzle fest.  

I think this is the reasonable call.

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Nice of you to share your thoughts Powerball.

I always knew the baroclinic zone location was one of the key deciding factors.

 

If the CMC pulls it off, then Hawkeye up into southern WI cash in big time. If though...

 

gem_asnow_ncus_14.png

 

That would be terrible for Hawkeye since he mentioned he wasn't craving any snowfall at all.  

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Haven't the Canadian and the American models already begun the trend toward the European Model ? To me, pretty typical of an El Niño year to see this occur.

 

Well as far as today goes the GFS and CMC really haven't moved much. There's a clear separation between those two and the EURO/NAM camp. CMC last night was more south and it really clocked N IL, SE WI, and S MI with snow.

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That would be terrible for Hawkeye since he mentioned he wasn't craving any snowfall at all.  

 

Yeah I caught that from him. Pivotal Weather map had him down for 17".

 

Regarding Powerball's thoughts, I have seen last minute shifts due to baroclinic zones settling further south before. I think we all have.

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For 95% of us it's looking like it's going to come down to how much cold air holds before the WAA overtakes and changes it to rain.  Snow is looking pretty meager for all but the far northwest portion of the sub.  My gut feeling for here is we see a period of heavy sleet before switching over to all rain, and then dry slot/drizzle fest.  

 

 

Any thoughts on ice (if not your backyard then in general)?  With marginal temps and potentially heavy precip, I think leaning conservative makes sense at this point...like generally a band of a quarter inch or lower. 

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Any thoughts on ice (if not your backyard then in general)?  With marginal temps and potentially heavy precip, I think leaning conservative makes sense at this point...like generally a band of a quarter inch or lower. 

 

With the way the models are bouncing around it's definitely gonna take another day or two to pin down the best glazing potential.  A lot of the precip forecast displays from various models indicate more sleet than freezing rain in the transition areas, but those probably aren't the most accurate.  

 

The lack of snow cover over most of the region is a bit of a concern.  Snow cover can help delay WAA to some extent at the surface, but we won't have that pretty much anywhere in the impact area.  The only tool to maintain a subfreezing surface layer is the dry easterlies on the south side of that big high pressure.  

 

Whatever glazing we get will probably be significantly less than what we would have received if a substantial snow pack was in place region wide.

 

I'm thinking for most of us it will be either sleet or rain.

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