Harry Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The shift back to the se may begin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The shift back to the se may begin.. I think it might too. I'm down for a good ice/sleet event but lets be honest, we all want a good snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I think it might too. I'm down for a good ice/sleet event but lets be honest, we all want a good snowstorm I would love to see a decent ice event but not while i am in this house with all the power lines surrounding it. I have not seen a decent ice storm in a good while. But yeah regardless snow is always preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I think it might too. I'm down for a good ice/sleet event but lets be honest, we all want a good snowstorm Me too. Freezing rain + strong winds do not bode well to trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Anybody wishing for an ice event needs their head checked. Warm rain processes aloft in the past with sac temps near 30 have resulted in little to no impact. Expecting that locally into lower Michigan this "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Well hillsdale mi will see an epic event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Anybody wishing for an ice event needs their head checked. Warm rain processes aloft in the past with sac temps near 30 have resulted in little to no impact. Expecting that locally into lower Michigan this "event". That is true. Almost no ice accumulation on power lines on December 23, 2009 when temps were in the lower 30s and the freezing rain lasted for much of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Well hillsdale mi will see an epic event though I'm not sure if that's sarcasm or if your reminding me of the last giant ice storm we had in Hillsdale that hardly touched anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 ...Meanwhile out West... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM242 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCINGBLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL RECORD SETTING SNOWFALL ACROSSEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLELSEWHERE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERSREGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OFSNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS. APOWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD JUST SOUTHOF THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSUNDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAW A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THESTATE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM SATURDAYAFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD SETTING SNOWFALL...AS POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET IN THEMOUNTAINS...WITH WELL OVER ONE FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE EASTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. FOR THE LATEST NEW MEXICO ROADCONDITIONS CALL 511 OR VISIT NMROADS.COM.NMZ522>524-527>540-260545-/O.UPG.KABQ.BZ.A.0001.151226T1900Z-151228T0700Z//O.NEW.KABQ.BZ.W.0003.151226T1900Z-151228T0700Z/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-242 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MSTSUNDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MSTSUNDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ANDSOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. 3 TO 4 FOOT SNOWDRIFTS ARE LIKELY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHBLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY. SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDSUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF SNOW.* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO45 MPH BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.WINDS DECREASING NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH BYLATE SUNDAY.* LOCAL IMPACTS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLEACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. DOWNED POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLEDUE TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE SNOW DRIFTS MAY BURYVEHICLES PARKED OUTSIDE AND BLOCK ENTRY TO BUILDINGS FACINGNORTH OR NORTHEAST.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS EXTREME WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESSABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 ...Meanwhile out West... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 242 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015 ...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL RECORD SETTING SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE... .AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAW A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD SETTING SNOWFALL... AS POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WELL OVER ONE FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. FOR THE LATEST NEW MEXICO ROAD CONDITIONS CALL 511 OR VISIT NMROADS.COM. NMZ522>524-527>540-260545- /O.UPG.KABQ.BZ.A.0001.151226T1900Z-151228T0700Z/ /O.NEW.KABQ.BZ.W.0003.151226T1900Z-151228T0700Z/ ESTANCIA VALLEY-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS- RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS- NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY- EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY- CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS- EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 242 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. 3 TO 4 FOOT SNOW DRIFTS ARE LIKELY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. * WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. WINDS DECREASING NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH BY LATE SUNDAY. * LOCAL IMPACTS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. DOWNED POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE SNOW DRIFTS MAY BURY VEHICLES PARKED OUTSIDE AND BLOCK ENTRY TO BUILDINGS FACING NORTH OR NORTHEAST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. See my avatar pic. I so want to get that just for once. But, yeah, our lump of storm coal is coming, isn't it? :grinch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 See my avatar pic. I so want to get that just for once. But, yeah, our lump of storm coal is coming, isn't it? :grinch: If the GGEM from last night verifies, you may get something close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Special WX Statement by MKX. Regardless of where the impacts are exactly, it's bad timing with people traveling. ...ABRUPT RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY...THE MILD...NON-WINTERY WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS AFFECTED SOUTHERNWISCONSIN DURING DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE COMING TO AN END JUST AS WERETURN TO WORK AFTER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ONMONDAY TOWARD WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND THEN PROCEED NORTHWARD ACROSSTHE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAYNIGHT.THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A MIXED BAG OF WINTERY WEATHERACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHTACROSS THE ILLINOIS BORDER AREA...AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERNWISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILLSTRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVETHE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.THIS SET-UP FAVORS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSSSOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TOKENOSHA.FARTHER WEST...COLDER AIR MAY RESULT IN A SNOW AND SLEET MIXTUREOVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEST OF MADISON WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN THIS AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAYNIGHT.THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PATH OFTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATUREPROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS FOR MONDAY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED ONSATURDAY.ALSO...STRONG EAST WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ON MONDAY.THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKEMICHIGAN DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 "If" the GGEM from last night verifies, you may get something close to that. here, let me enlarge that for us "IF" I know what it flashed - the potential was jaw drop stuff. Would take a crazy back-flip turn-around to see that verify at this point, though I like that you even mentioned it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 CPC forecasters that made the hazard outlooks are not drinking the euro-nam kool aid eggnog I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Anybody wishing for an ice event needs their head checked. Warm rain processes aloft in the past with sac temps near 30 have resulted in little to no impact. Expecting that locally into lower Michigan this "event". I think the wind is the difference maker this time...with marginal temps/considerable runoff, even relatively minor amounts of ice on trees/power lines would have some impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 What a cold and miserable rain coming here tomorrow. The warm front stays well south so it will be really raw once the rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 One aspect of this system that hasn't been discussed much is the heavy rain expected south of the mixed/frozen precip. In our sub, SPI-LAF-FWA-TOL (US 24 corridor) could receive flooding rains. Flood watches are up over a wide area. Of course the NAM is going crazy with amounts, but even the GFS is showing some major dumpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 1049 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 That high eats the leading edge of the precip shield alive on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 That high eats the leading edge of the precip shield alive on the NAM. Then the low goes to NW Wisconsin. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 NAM total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The 0z NAM puts 1 inch of freezing rain/sleet in south central Iowa while only giving me 0.19 inches of sleet/freezing rain. I do not buy the NAM at all. I should also mention that the 0z NAM has the low sitting over Oklahoma for a time. >.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I know one thing, the NAM tends to over blow the convection and then the low ends up going too far NW. Can't believe that the heaviest snow will end up at the Rocky Mountain front range like it almost shows. Bo would miss most of the snow if that model run came true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 0z GFS doesn't have as much ice on the front end as did the previous run, although it does give me a brief period of sleet. Track hasn't changed at all. Lets hope this stays because I do not want any freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GFS has some 10+ inch rain amounts in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 00z GGEM is similar to 12z. Maybe a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 995 mb low over STL at 72 hours, GEM. Looking like a similar track to last nights the 12z run. Jim Ramsey showed the RPM a little while ago and it had 2-4" of snow in northern IL, 3-6" amounts in southern WI and eastern Iowa. He thinks the storm will stay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 995 mb low over STL at 72 hours, GEM. Looking like a similar track to last nights. Huh? Low went through southern IL/IN on last night's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Huh? Low went through southern IL/IN on last night's 00z run. Nevermind was thinking the southern run was longer ago. fixed Anyway ~ Heaviest snow area moved into eastern Iowa more, extreme NW IL and southern WI. Madison gets clocked along with Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It would be a post-Christmas miracle if it keeps trending south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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