wxman1952 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas everyone. Hope everyone are having a nice Christmas. Finally some interesting weather to talk about n our region. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah, no ice, but 34° and driving, wind-blown rain is a real treat. It has its charms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12 suite tells me to get generator supplies if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Flipped through the CIPS analogs earlier and it doesn't seem like any had a pressure gradient quite like what we should have with this storm. This is gonna be good. Even in areas that don't get snow/ice, heavy rain/high winds could make some weaker trees susceptible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The February 24, 2007 storm that Natester mentioned earlier...that had a nice pressure gradient but the high pressure was centered a bit farther north so the gradient looks even better this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 MKX write up and thoughts. http://www.weather.gov/mkx/dec28_winterevent The potential is increasing for winter weather to finally return to southern Wisconsin on Monday and Monday night. The medium range computer models are coming into better agreement on Low Pressure located in the southern Plains on Monday morning taking a northeast track toward and through the western Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. Warmer air flowing northward ahead of this system will result in a wintery, messy mix of precipitation types across southern Wisconsin, including freezing rain and icing, as well as sleet and snow. The mixture may change to all snow before ending later Monday night. Guess they're thinking an eastward track...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The February 24, 2007 storm that Natester mentioned earlier...that had a nice pressure gradient but the high pressure was centered a bit farther north so the gradient looks even better this time. Got dry slotted early in that storm. About 4" with some IP mixed in. On the 25th it rained before another 1" of snow fell. I think Milwaukee did really good though. Actually thundersnow was reported at MKX early that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The February 24, 2007 storm that Natester mentioned earlier...that had a nice pressure gradient but the high pressure was centered a bit farther north so the gradient looks even better this time. The February 24, 2007 storm was also very strong and dynamic. Certainly do not want to go through another storm like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Sharp baroclinic zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Low dewpoint air really feeding in from the north, going to be a big ice producer again. Low coming in farther east over Little Rock instead of Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 0z NAM says epic sleet storm for much of the subforum. If it were all freezing rain, then we would be looking at a potentially significant ice storm (NOWHERE near the magnitude of February 24, 2007). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That's a big area of mixed precip. And wind. Doesn't get above freezing here until about 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18Z NAM is looking too warm, all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Very serious ice event across most of southern WI on that run, even extreme northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 DVN AFD: WITH MODELS IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER TODAY...I AM CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT DONE SHIFTING NORTHWEST IN THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW SCENARIO. IN FACT...LACKING SNOW COVER I AM CONCERNED IT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWEST IN FUTURE RUNS. THUS I SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LIVED BUT POSSIBLY HIGH IMPACT SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AS THE BAND LIFTS THROUGH OUR CWA...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN ALL SNOW DEFORMATION ZONE OVER IOWA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST IOWA. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND WHAT COULD BE A SUB 995MB LOW COMING UP THROUGH MISSOURI. THAT NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WIND IS POSSIBLY GOING TO BLOW AT 30 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH. THUS...THE WINTRY PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A MAXIMIZED IMPACT TO TREES AND POWER LINES AS WINDS PUT ON ADDED PRESSURE. Reminds me of December 1, 2007 to an extent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 DVN AFD: WITH MODELS IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER TODAY...I AM CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT DONE SHIFTING NORTHWEST IN THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW SCENARIO. IN FACT...LACKING SNOW COVER I AM CONCERNED IT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWEST IN FUTURE RUNS. THUS I SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LIVED BUT POSSIBLY HIGH IMPACT SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AS THE BAND LIFTS THROUGH OUR CWA...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN ALL SNOW DEFORMATION ZONE OVER IOWA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST IOWA. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND WHAT COULD BE A SUB 995MB LOW COMING UP THROUGH MISSOURI. THAT NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WIND IS POSSIBLY GOING TO BLOW AT 30 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH. THUS...THE WINTRY PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A MAXIMIZED IMPACT TO TREES AND POWER LINES AS WINDS PUT ON ADDED PRESSURE. Reminds me of December 1, 2007 to an extent... Further Northwest would maximize ice for the entire subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The WPC hasn't updated their winter weather outlooks yet this afternoon... I'm hoping for no more northwest shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Strong freezing rain sounding SW of Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Further Northwest would maximize ice for the entire subforum.No it wouldn't. Too far northwest and any ice would be confined to IA/WI/parts of MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Any ice that does accumulate on surfaces will remain for a long while as temps will be below freezing for at least a week, although it would make for pretty scenery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Cedar Rapids area is ice from 69-78 hours, then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Cedar Rapids area is ice from 69-78 hours, then snow. The vast majority of that would be sleet, not freezing rain. If it were all freezing rain, combined with the winds, it would be a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The vast majority of that would be sleet, not freezing rain. If it were all freezing rain, combined with the winds, it would be a crippling ice storm. I hope your right because the NAM doesn't look too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Further Northwest would maximize ice for the entire subforum. No it wouldn't. Too far northwest and any ice would be confined to IA/WI/parts of MI Right. With the western solutions, more warm air gets pumped up into SE MI, NE IN and OH minimizing icing other than maybe a little with precip onset. Also, depending on temps, could be a little sleet mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I hope your right because the NAM doesn't look too good. Actually, the sounding in Cedar Rapids has 850 mb temps at +10C, not +20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Actually, the sounding in Cedar Rapids has 850 mb temps at +10C, not +20C. That is the nearest sounding to you. ... That's about 9°C max. Follow the gray line diagonally down to the left to match up the temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18z GFS has the low just a little bit to the southeast than on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Low track from Columbia, MO to Flint, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18Z GFS is a little more icey, a tad bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If the NAM is following the EURO's speed and that Model tends to eject lows out too slow... Any faster solution will be the best scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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