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December 25-29th Storm Disco


Chicago Storm

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The GOM continues to remain fairly untouched, and thus very deep moisture is readily available for any system that can tap into it.  This will continue to offer heavy precip potential with any system of consequence going forward.  Don't really see the GOM getting scoured out for the foreseeable future.  So maybe that will benefit some of us snow lovers as we head into January...

 

With that being said, it looks like this system will be yet another one that will be all loaded up with deep moisture, and ready to dump tons of rain in the favored regions relative to the storm track.  Heavy snow is looking pretty likely over the Plains with this, and hopefully that extends northeast through the MSP/UP of MI region for our northwestern/northern sub peeps.  

 

Look at the current dewpoint readings down south.  Mid 70s all over the northern Gulf.  That's very tropical indeed.  

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the rise has been insane, they had to close one of the dog beaches by my apartment because it literally vanished under rising water

 

Same issues with Superior.  The city of Marquette has to close Lakeshore drive every time there's a northeast blow.  And with no ice along the shore this year, I'm thinking the right storm could do  a lot of damage.... there as well.

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What a broad area of 2"+ over the next 10 days on the GEFS map above.  I saw that ILN was already briefly mentioning flooding potential in their afternoon AFD yesterday.  There looks to be potential for heavy (flooding?) rainfall for just about anyone between the Mississippi & the Apps...rather prolonged event, as well.

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Surface high starts out in a pretty good position but then moves east.

 

The most significant difference is that it does a better job of picking up and damning the low-level cold air ahead of the storm.  

 

Even aloft, there's better northern/southern stream interaction, which helps to push the baroclinic zone further SE. 

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00z GFS might baby step toward something more wintry for more folks.

 

And it did. 

 

Some fairly big baby steps in fact for WI and Central MI folks (nice front-end thumping)/

 

And a course a prolonged threat for sleet/freezing rain in Southern Michigan and Northern Illinois. 

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