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Dec 23-24 storms OBS


jaxjagman

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN
   TN...EXTREME WRN KY...EXTREME SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK FROM NRN
   LA TO MIDDLE TN AND SRN PORTIONS INDIANA/IL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL GULF
   COAST AND ARKLATEX REGIONS TO SRN APPALACHIANS...SRN WI AND SRN
   LOWER MI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING SLGT RISK AND
   EXTENDING EWD TO MUCH OF CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
   OCCASIONAL HAIL...WILL BE FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  SOME RISK FOR ALL THOSE
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS EXISTS TODAY ELSEWHERE OVER A VAST SWATH FROM
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
   SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
   SEVERE WEATHER MAY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
   REGION TONIGHT.  A MARGINAL SEVERE-STORM THREAT EXISTS FARTHER
   EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TODAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE
   TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PAC
   COAST TO SRN PLAINS...MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.  EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN KS...WRN
   OK AND NW TX -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD TO IL...SERN MO AND NRN AR BY
   00Z. 

   AT SFC...COMPLEX PATTERN WAS EVIDENT IN 11Z ANALYSIS WITH LOW OVER
   E-CENTRAL KS...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND
   STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN
   MO.  DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THERE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER OH
   VALLEY AND NRN KY.  LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD TO WI BY 00Z...WITH COLD
   FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN MO...SERN OK...AND W-CENTRAL TX.  BY
   THEN...DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS
   WI/LOWER MI TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...AHEAD OF RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE
   PLUME THAT SHOULD REACH MUCH OF IL/INDIANA AND PERHAPS OH.
   LOW-LEVEL WARM-FRONTAL ZONE ALSO IS LIFTING NWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   GA/CAROLINAS...REINFORCED BY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE PLUME THAT EXTENDS
   FROM AL TO ERN NC.  SURFACE MANIFESTATION OF THAT BOUNDARY -- NOW
   NEAR SC/NC COAST -- SHOULD MOVE INLAND TODAY. 

   ...MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY STATES TO TN VALLEY...
   SCATTERED TSTMS IN BKN BANDS AND DISCRETE MODES SHOULD MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...OFFERING RISKS FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND OCNL LARGE HAIL.  GREATEST POTENTIAL CONCENTRATION OF
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER
   SPACE...CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN CORRIDOR FROM SERN AR/WRN MS
   NNEWD TOWARD SRN IL...FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN.  MULTIPLE TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA...WHOSE TORNADO PROBABILITIES
   ACCORDINGLY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED...MEETING THRESHOLD FOR CATEGORICAL
   MDT RISK.  THIS THREAT WILL BE MANIFEST ONCE EXISTING PRECIP ACROSS
   SRN PARTS OF THIS AREA -- OVER ERN AR -- HAS SHIFTED NEWD AND
   DIABATIC HEATING BEGINS TO BOOST BUOYANCY...AMIDST ROUGHLY 60 KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND EFFECTIVE SRH GENERALLY 250-400 J/KG.
    MLCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1000-2000 J/KG OVER ERN AR...NRN MS AND MEM
   AREA THIS AFTN...DECREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER SRN IL. 

   BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT COUNTERACTED TO SOME
   EXTENT BY GREATER CINH AND LESS WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
   WITH NRN EXTENT...STG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST BUT
   BUOYANCY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE LIMITED.  AS
   SUCH..PROBABILITIES TAPER NWD AND SWD FROM MDT-RISK AREA.

   ...LA TO AL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
   POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DEEP-SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION WILL EXIST
   ACROSS GULF COAST STATES FROM LA TO AL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
   EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FULL RANGE OF ASSOCIATED SVR
   HAZARDS.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH SEWD EXTENT FROM CURRENT
   MDT-RISK AREA...HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS
   INCLUDING...
   1. COVERAGE OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION AMIDST NEBULOUS BOUNDARY-LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...
   2. NET HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER PERTURBATIONS
   EVIDENT UPSTREAM ONCE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES NW-N OF
   AREA..
   3. FRAGMENTED CAPE SPACE DUE TO BOTH ANTECEDENT TSTMS AND ONGOING
   CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM INLAND FROM GULF.

   NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD SWATH OF AT LEAST SLGT SVR RISK IS
   APPARENT.  ONCE MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT WILL STRONGLY REGULATE SVR
   THREAT OVER LOWER DELTA TO AL CAN BE DIAGNOSED WITH MORE
   CLARITY...SOME OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE PROBABILISTIC UPGRADE.

   ...GA/CAROLINAS...
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER SERN NC...NEAR INTERSECTION OF MOSTLY
   OFFSHORE CONFLUENCE BAND WITH NWD-RETREATING/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE...MAY POSE RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS OR TORNADO.  REF
   SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. 

   OTHERWISE...MODIFIED MHX/CHS RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO RISK AND ISOLATED
   SVR GUSTS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE AFTN ACROSS THIS
   REGION ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES.
   RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARITIME RETURN FLOW SHOULD
   OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE...WITH AROUND 150 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH AND 35-45 KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES POSSIBLE.  ANY RELATIVE CONCENTRATIONS OF
   MESOSCALE FOCI THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD LEAD TO UPGRADE OF
   PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA AS WELL.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF
   IL/IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY....SERN MO....ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE
   TN....NRN MS AND FAR NWRN AL...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO
   GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF
   COAST AND SRN MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW
   INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
   INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
   ARKLATEX WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT
   LAKES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
   COAST.  AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS WILL
   CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD TO CNTRL WI BY 24/00Z PRIOR TO REACHING
   CNTRL ONTARIO BY 12Z/THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
   OH VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE FRONT ADVANCING MORE
   SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER-MS VALLEY.  ELSEWHERE...AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL LA TO ALONG THE MS/AL
   COASTS AND THEN NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL GA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
   WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS.

   ...OH VALLEY INTO THE TN AND LOWER-MS VALLEYS...

   MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID
   MORNING FROM SRN IL TO CNTRL AR WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING
   FORCED BY A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE
   ADVECTIONS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS/DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE
   CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...POLEWARD FLUXES OF HEAT AND MOISTURE ALONG A
   BROADENING/STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIR MASS TO
   DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS.  AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
   ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 250-500 J/KG ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO AS
   HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING
   WILL RESIDE.

   LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
   EARLIER DATA IN SUGGESTING THAT THE BOWING STRUCTURE OVER SERN
   MO/NERN AR WILL CONTINUE NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH AN ATTENDANT
   RISK FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED
   TORNADOES GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR.  FARTHER SW OVER ERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS...THE
   FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
   INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES.  THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME
   --FEATURING REGENERATIVE/BACKBUILDING STORMS-- WILL PERSIST
   OVERNIGHT FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE A CONTINUED
   RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. 

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

   THE INLAND FLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
   FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ACTIVITY
   LARGELY BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
   MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH THE
   ERN EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ATTENDANT TO THE CNTRL
   U.S. SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

   ...MID-MS VALLEY...

   AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
   PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL...ALONG THE CHANNEL OF STRONGEST
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING THE UPPER-AIR SYSTEM.  POCKETS OF
   STRONGER HEATING AND RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD MLCAPE
   OF AROUND 500 J/KG AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  AS SUCH THE
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES
   CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...NRN MS...WEST TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 231658Z - 231900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
   RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
   SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
   TN/MS/LA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING
   MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.  SO FAR...DEEP
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ALONG A SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER NORTHERN LA.  MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
   THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW
   SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH
   TIME. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN
   MAINTAIN INTENSITY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

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PDS

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 559
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
     FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
     NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
     WESTERN TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
     800 PM CST.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK SHOULD INTENSIFY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO
   LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
   AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   AR...MO...IL...IND...KY...TN...AL...MS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA TO SWRN OH...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO
   SRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
   THE CAROLINA COAST TO NRN LOWER MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW
   INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
   INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO 1630Z OUTLOOK...1) INCREASE
   SEVERE PROBS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER 2)
   INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

   1.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CU FIELD AHEAD OF SFC LOW
   FROM THE IA/MO BORDER...SWD INTO CNTRL MO.  WHILE LIGHTNING HAS YET
   TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS
   CONVECTION DEEPENS.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS
   REGION AND A PLUME OF STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NUDGING INTO
   CNTRL MO.  THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE A BIT
   FARTHER NW THAN EARLIER INDICATED.

   2.  OUTFLOW IS SURGING EWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS OVER
   SC.  A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THIS
   LINE.  BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVANCING NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
   WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  HAVE
   INCREASED SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

   ACROSS THE MDT RISK...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   AND COVERAGE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL AR...NEWD INTO WRN KY.
   TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE AFTERNOON
   PROGRESSES...IN LINE WITH EARLIER THOUGHTS.

   ..DARROW.. 12/23/2015

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PDS...wow....will be interesting to see if that verifies. 

 

For those of you interested, Cheeznado of SE Forum fame is out chasing with some folks and they are live streaming on StormScapeLIVE.TV   they are just south of Memphis right now. 

Yeah, finally seeing some popcorn pop ahead but that's about all is right now

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Just got into a tornado watch here. The sky is still rather overcast, overall. It's still very humid and muggy. They just tested the local tornado sirens about 3 hours ago. If anything changes from OVC, I'll be sure to snap some more pics.

Testing a tornado system during a severe threat isn't a smart thing to do..lol

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Yeah the lower shear  should start to start kicking this 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WEST TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...

   VALID 232049Z - 232215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER EASTERN AR...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF PAH - BYH -
   WEST OF MEM.  SEVERAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE HAVE DEVELOPED
   PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL /UP TO
   BASEBALL SIZE/.  LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL
   ROTATION HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THESE STORMS...AND SO FAR THE TORNADO
   RISK HAS BEEN LIMITED.  THE VAD PROFILE AT MEM SHOWS INTENSE LOW
   LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH 0-3KM SRH
   VALUES NOW OVER 700 M2/S2.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S
   INTO WEST TN IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES TO MAINTAIN A RISK
   OF STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

   A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER WEST TN AHEAD OF
   THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.  THIS TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW MAY BE
   NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 559 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...INCLUDING MORE OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTHWEST AL.

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Yup, WarEagle. It's a standard alarm that is tested every Wed at noon, though. Needless to say, when it did go off, a few heads popped out to see if anything was up, before they realized it was the test.

 

And speaking of the devil, the clouds have all of a sudden broke. It was OVC for up until 15-30 min ago.

 

 

 

EDIT: TVN has a chaser on a tornado on the ground over Clarksdale, MS. It's right on them! Two of them apparently!

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR CENTRAL  

QUITMAN COUNTY...  

 

AT 325 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  

LOCATED OVER BELEN...OR 13 MILES EAST OF CLARKSDALE...MOVING  

NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  

 

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY  

BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES  

WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO  

HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  

 

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  

DARLING AROUND 335 PM CST.  

SLEDGE AROUND 340 PM CST.  

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  

RIVERVIEW...FALCON...HINCHCLIFF...WEST MARKS...BARKSDALE AND ESSEX.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE  

IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  

335 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTHERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...  

 

* UNTIL 415 PM CST  

 

* AT 335 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  

WAS LOCATED NEAR CURTIS STATION...OR 15 MILES WEST OF BATESVILLE...  

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  

 

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  

MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  

HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO  

HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  

PLEASANT GROVE AROUND 345 PM CST.  

SARDIS AND COMO AROUND 355 PM CST.  

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  

BALLENTINE...LOCKE STATION...HORATIO...GLENVILLE...MC GHEE AND HAYES  

CROSSING.  

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