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Winter-lorn much more confidently given a reason to smile.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It's a big winter month so they worry. Feb, the sun angle rises and they worry more. Anxiety sets in that winter is soon over and the seasonal depression that spring is near escalates.

Haha, I just think it's because January is like the quintessential winter month. It just is. It's like July in the summer. It's the mid-season stretch.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Update - things are more than merely on track as far as realization of conceptualizations..  These evidences in the prognostics from a few days ago have become ever more coherent, and we are now getting close to the temporal boundary when we can start to infer confidence not just in the pattern change, but re the effects on the dailies.  

 

Firstly, I don't believe the Pacific changing of the guard is really as directly related to the winter-like scenario becoming increasingly more likely for early next week.  This next system is still riding along in the vestigial effects of the erstwhile -PNA, which is unlikely to have changed enough just yet to send the altering signal downstream over NA 1; but 2, that system next week is doing what none other have before:  smashed(ing) straight into a N-stream, confluence born polar high.  I think it is really shear luck that system is doing that - and so on, trending colder in the models relative to expectation/timing of these pattern discussion points, because it is too early in the phase transition.  

 

I suppose it's possible that the N-stream strengthening and timing well "could" be indirectly (or directly) related to the upstream changes in the Pac (perhaps some leading hemispheric drives/signals) but I'm less than knowing what that would be.  

 

The bigger signal as it pertains to this would be during the first week of January.  That period - I think - may and should feature a better meridianal express - if perhaps given time in the models.   Note: talking event, not character of event

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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There are even signs that the EPO is trying to flip negative here; however I suspect that's really the magnitude of the positive PNA affecting the EPO domain space.

 

post-904-0-60247000-1451150096_thumb.jpg

Either way the implications of that should be a fairly steep western north American flow emanating from the northwest to north northwest that critical mid-level transport altitudes.

This is just an update as it is and has been now heavily guided in the GEFs ensemble mean for many days at this point and we are now beginning to see impressions in the operational guidance types of this succeeding in taking place. Implications on the dailies would be increased potential for more seasonal temperature, as well as increased frequency and storm in us from approximately January 3 or fourth looking forward till further notice. Specific events may or may not even be very well modeled by operational guidance fives at this time but trust me they're there lurking in the wind - give it time.

By the way this current one being tracked for early next week was interestingly never really part of this discussion. That one appears more of an anomaly relative to a warm pattern overall little bit of a sneaky cold hi scenario getting involved.

 

Also, I had added discussion re the MJO's involvement here - still, uncertain what is the 'chicken or the egg' with that factor, but ... it does appear the wave is coming (still) into a constructive wave interference with the surrounding milieu, which given that support might positively augment and boost the realization of the pattern change.  It would be hard to separate the two, tho - granted. 

 

post-904-0-64979500-1451150342_thumb.jpg

 

That's a very robust wave signaled there, one seemingly reaching it's greatest amplitude, during, the PNA's mighty positive gain, and, doing so in the phase-space most correlated with cold over eastern NA.  That's teleconnector convergence incarnate, too.

 

Having said all that ... hope you allz had a good Christmas!   

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This will be my last update in this thread ...then, I promise to let it fade :) 

 

The precursors have been labeled/marked and the identifiable gears in the atmosphere are clearly cranking toward realization, so from this point forward it is both reward of winter dividends (if that's ur bag...), as well as monitoring the dailies(models) for emerging storm day potentials. ...It is interesting we haven't seen more of that ...  I disagree a little that we wait until the 2nd week of January to get things cookin', tho if we do end waiting ...or lose any events at all, I think that would be a HUGE waste of potential here. 

 

This pattern evolution at large is still one very conducive to action over eastern N/A.  Why the operational runs have not been honing more ...I "think" ...hunch...whatever intuitive guess, that it may be the transition from that -PNA/-PNAP monstrosity into this new paradigm of strong +PNA that might be throwing the runs for loop.  Transition times ...whether seasonal or intra-seasonal often do present more of a challenge to modeling in general, so we may just need to allow this to settle some. 

 

The transition is still underway.. We have recovered some 1 to 2 SD in the PNA, and both agencies (GEFs -derived) are banging a tight cluster heading for another gain of 2.  The total being 3 or 4 SD from such a massive domain space as the PNA argues for a pretty obvious paradigm shift over N/A.  The operational runs are fiddling with things and showing huge continuity issue, if perhaps thus understandably.  

 

I would start looking in the 200-240 hour time frame for something to start showing up - just subtlety in the trends of the operational and how they time with this thing ...that seems like a good period.  

 

The current EPO prog is forecast to slip negative.  I am not sure if that might be the strong +PNA overlapping/crowding the EPO domain space and stressing it toward negative ... it probably does have something to do with that.  But, the WPO does show signs of wanting to go neutral if not negative too, and that could herald a better AA phase of the north Pacific.  Should that be the case, LOOK OUT!  DEEP deep winter rides over the top of a juicy warm Nino and heads might roll - We'll see on that.  But, our cousin to these affairs, the MJO is still also progged to power through phase 7, and that correlates loudly to a temperature deficits over the GL/OV/MA ... with the Pac receptive to it's advances (hehheh), the two may enhance one another. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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still trying to figure out who is on an epic train.

Epic train?

 

Lol, I am on the train that we get a nice stretch of winter, normal winter.  The upcoming pattern looks great.  Maybe it changes at the beginning of February; or maybe that is our January thaw a little late, and we get another period of good winter (more likely in my opinion).  Average here the last 10 years or so is somewhere north of 80 inches.  I think I have a slightly above average winter of snow between 80-100 inches.  Not epic but nice.

 

I understand Kevin's use of hyperbole; it does get a reaction...but it seems to be getting old.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Epic train?

 

Lol, I am on the train that we get a nice stretch of winter, normal winter.  The upcoming pattern looks great.  Maybe it changes at the beginning of February; or maybe that is our January thaw a little late, and we get another period of good winter (more likely in my opinion).  Average here the last 10 years or so is somewhere north of 80 inches.  I think I have a slightly above average winter of snow between 80-100 inches.  Not epic but nice.

 

I understand Kevin's use of hyperbole; it does get a reaction...but it seems to be getting old.

80-100" would be epic for us considering our avg the rest of the way is probably about 55". Our seasonal avg is only low 70s.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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80-100" would be epic for us considering our avg the rest of the way is probably about 55". Our seasonal avg is only low 70s.

 I thought I saw an average snow at Black River Dam of 80 inches?  

 

Damn we have had a helluva run then, because our worst winters, the ones we would consider ratters, recently have been 60+

 

Yes I agree 100 inches would be epic.  But I think we end up slightly above our average.  

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dendrite

dendrite

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 I thought I saw an average snow at Black River Dam of 80 inches?  

 

Damn we have had a helluva run then, because our worst winters, the ones we would consider ratters, recently have been 60+

 

Yes I agree 100 inches would be epic.  But I think we end up slightly above our average.  

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?nh0741

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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OT:  It's funny ... this big storm moves through the Nation's heartland ... bringing its cornucopia of wrath, from historic blizzards, to deadly tornadoes and probably everything in between.  Pretty dramatic stuff ... so now news agencies are blaming it pretty squarely on El Nino.  Well, certainly using it as impetus to coin article titles like, "El Nino Strengthens Amid Warning Millions Could Face Hunger And Disease."     

 

Maybe if the Global accord fails to at last negotiate a Mid East peace treaty, we can push the blame off on EL NINO nino nino nino , too.  The article starts off with a classic, "..If you're wondering why your white Christmas didn't arrive on schedule this year, Meteorologists have two words: El Nino ..."

 

Not even going to begin cleaving into the layers of fallacy in the media culture these days   ... At 100,000 mile level looking down, journalistic integrity left the camera ...oh, circa 1980 anyway. A lot of you weren't even born; you don't know of a world when you could turn on that big clunky box of cathode-ray tubing, adjust the old rabbit ears as Walter Cronkite's unadulterated truisms came into focus; the state of the world, conveyed by use of factual accounting, and, accountability and compunctions in the art of honesty...  

 

So diluted is the truth nowadays ... public opinion, even public 'intellect' is now grown in piss-tainted soils of special interest moaners, those with wherewithal and agenda to manipulate the throngs of those whose conveniences have dimmed their ability for analytic, critical thinking.  ...  but I digress. 

 

El Nino has shown signs of weaken some over the course of December, having (preliminary) reached a peak in November. The title is clearly an artist's movement designed to elicit a response... 

 

--- 

 

I still think ...perhaps the 8th of January (ish) is a good time for something to emerge in the runs. That probably coincides more than less with the consensus for the second week of January for more significant event; I just side on the early part of that range of time, given to the temporal-spatial arrangement/differentiation of all factors leading. I think toward the end of the 2nd week is getting late for paradigm shift - caused restoring events.  But obviously... things can break quick and have little warning. 

 

I think of 1996... There were two events in December of that year that were really not well seen in advance, even as little as two days ahead.  I am not sure what the indexes were, then, but I argue +PNA ... because the two systems moved ENE from the lower OV to S of the LI.  They occurred literally 18 to 24 hours apart, in a very rare double wham scenario. 

 

Typically, the atmosphere needs time to "recharge" if you will.  One storm winds up and pulls away, it drags baroclinic zones E and along with, moisture... Such that the next system comes along, if too soon, it won't have these necessary component available for cylogenesis...etc, etc.  

 

But back then, two system succeeded.  Pretty awesome.  The lead was a dynamic affair, where a low deepened more than anticipated, (984 mb passing over ACK!), and the attending frontogenic banding up in the evolving CCB head went bonkers. It was probably the cross-sections/jets involved were also under-estimated by modeling and man. Whatever, but the cold rain flipped to parachutes and dropped visibility to 1/4 mi for several hours.  Central and N. Middlesex co got a surprise 8::1 5 to 8" of blue.  The storm left...the air went calm, ...it was so gorgeous too.  Slate gray, temps around 29, with trees coated and laden.  

 

What was interesting was that the next storm had winter storm warnings flying while we appreciated that scenery. That next one was a doozer too.  Thunder snow in Worcester and lot of power outages, as the burdened infrastructure hadn't sans it's load from the previous event, not more than 24 hours earlier, and then 8-18" of new blue set off a cacophony timbre crackles and transformer flashes.  

 

That was a strange winter overall 1996-1997... Those two December events, that pretty much was it until the big April Fools Day event later in spring.  It's like 90% of the snow that year came in a binary, then single wallop, some months apart.  

 

Anyway, the Dec events weren't really obviously in play until they were in play.  When ever the -PNA motivates to +PNA, eastern N/A is in the black, and that is both for bigger modeled glories, as well as little critters that bite. 

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