CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looks like clipper/re-developer kind of look on the EPS towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Now that the PNA is solidly prognosticated to move into a positive phase state (cycles going back four days worth at this point...), the MJO becomes more factor-able. It is hard to say what is the chicken and egg here, but my personal belief is that the MJO phenomenon operates in a bit of a disconnect from the overall circumvalla of the Pacific Basin... Even NOAA has noted before that the wave can be in constructive -vs- deconstructive interference wrt to the overall structure/dynamic of the Pacific and Pacific NA pattern type. What that means ...or, connotes, is that if the two are in sync, the expected correlation on the pattern post tropical/subtropical forcing becomes more observable than at times when the MJO wave attempts to propagate through a asynchronous Pacific circulation medium. In the here and now, a rising PNA (dramatically so at CDC, implying some 5 total standard deviations of phase change!), that means that the present prognostic MJO wave would be less likely to mute/damp out ... No sooner, we see the recent trends in the GEFs to take the wave more coherently into the 6 and 7 wave spaces... at some moderate strength: What is interesting here ... prior to the last 3 or 4 day's worth of PNA phase change in the ensemble mean, this wave diagram was indicating the MJO would collapse and disperse prior to escaping the 5 wave space above. Now, the PNA rises...and the wave is now strengthened in the ensemble mean, and indications are that it will maintain coherence as it enters the wave spaces that positively correlate with the PNA. This all implies (strongly) a constructive wave interference - nicely exemplified... This could if not should feed-back positively a +PNAP flow over NA given time. This only adds to the expectation for what a changing Pacific may for the NA pattern. For one, I think ...well, let say, I would be surprised, if the flow takes on more meridian structure of western Canada. I would suspect more ridging over western NA as has been discussed anyway heretofore in this thread; but specifically that confidence is growing with this. Personally I would start modulating the first week of January down in temperature ... pretty drastically, considering we are passing through an absurdly warm anomaly now; I don't believe the cool down would match this positive departure in the mirror direction - but, a goodly amount of DJF temperature correcting would be getting underway. Temperatures to normal, with increasing storminess chances should set in for a 7 to perhaps 10 day period. In fact I don't even think it untoward to start looking for Archembault ...or perhaps a series of modeled disturbance during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Shut the IO down, and it gets more Nino looking. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp200.GFS.anom.MJO.0N-10N.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Shut the IO down, and it gets more Nino looking. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp200.GFS.anom.MJO.0N-10N.png yep nice convo with Mike about that last night, time for some STJ love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 I got to be honest ... I don't know what is meant by "IO" ? I'm a software developer; in our parlance that means input -output. Is this a forum invented thing - or what's the index that is referring too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I got to be honest ... I don't know what is meant by "IO" ? I'm a software developer; in our parlance that means input -output. Is this a forum invented thing - or what's the index that is referring too ?Indian Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Oh sorry Tippy. Just used to acronyms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Indian Ocean. Ah, ...right. Speaking of that, there is a direct Indian Ocean/NAO correlation ...which is fascinating considering they are half way around the world. hmm. Anyway, sorry I forgot add this to my post above for anyone interested... We see that phase 6 relays into phase 7 with MJO, do in fact demonstrate a polar opposite/abrupt change in the temperature anomaly distributions over the CONUS. Provided by NOAA My contention ...again, is that with the constructive wave interference between the El NINO/+PNA finally appearing, the correlation we see above may in fact get a boost in realization. The reasoning is clad. Now, we'll just have to set back and witness (or not) any anomalies relative to this/these teleconnector indications that off-set and/or augment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Could someone please elaborate on said IO/NAO correlation? My guess is that the correlation would be positive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Oh sorry Tippy. Just used to acronyms. Heh, that's alright - this head cold is damping my ability to extend my own intellect. Jesus god... man, I recall a lecture, some Bio 102 in college, where the speaker was demoing how closely related various viruses really are. Change one genetic script 'that much' and Chicken Pox becomes AIDs, AIDs, the common stomach puker, ...stomach puker, the common head cold...etc etc. I believe, now, first hand, that this head cold that I am currently suffering is in fact Ebola! unbef king lievable with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Heh, that's alright - this head cold is damping my ability to extend my own intellect. Jesus god... man, I recall a lecture, some Bio 102 in college, where the speaker was demoing how closely related various viruses really are. Change one genetic script 'that much' and Chicken Pox becomes AIDs, AIDs, the common stomach puker, ...stomach puker, the common head cold...etc etc. I believe, now, first hand, that this head cold that I am currently suffering is in fact Ebola! unbef king lievable with this thing. Man, everyone has gotten sick all at once. Scary...I'm never sick...last time was during Hurricane Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Could someone please elaborate on said IO/NAO correlation? My guess is that the correlation would be positive.. It's actually negative believe it or not...at least in December C/O CDC's correlation matrix: indiam -0.22 which I assume indiam mean 'Indian Maritime" ...but then again, I didn't know what Scott meant by IO either - ahaha! ... seriously I'm pretty sure that's it ... -.22 isn't a huge value, no, but in the inherently stochastic atmospheric arena, that's more than mere noise. Also I don't know this correlation could be further qualified... perhaps, time lagged, and what-have-you. It could be a transitive correlation, where they don't really effect one another - per se - but, the inter-connective atmosphere, on whole, sort of requires their negative correlation as a emergent property. I'm almost inclined to guess the latter, due to there excessively disparate geographical regions, but who knows? Here's Jan and Febs numbers respectively. -.19 and -.04 ...so the correlation gets incoherent toward spring, it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Flu shots actually work guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'm surrounded by 900+ germ factories each day I get a pretty bad cold once per year. This one was quick but was potent What was the IO like in 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Flu shots actually work guys I don't have the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I don't have the flu.upper respiratory is the flu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 it can be but there is a distinct difference between the class of viruses that cause a head cold and influenza A or B, which is what we commonly referred to as the flu if you have a head cold from one of the head cold viruses it is not the flu. One way to tell the difference whether you have a fever or not. influenza the vast majority time will cause a fever response and also involve the whole body in terms of aching and sometimes nausea. But let's not bog this thread down with topics that are more appropriate for medical forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 upper respiratory is the flu Not the flu I know of, dude. The flu I know has a hall of a fever accompanying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 it can be but there is a distinct difference between the class of viruses that cause a head cold and influenza A or B, which is what we commonly referred to as the flu if you have a head cold from one of the head cold viruses it is not the flu. One way to tell the difference whether you have a fever or not. influenza the vast majority time will cause a fever response and also involve the whole body in terms of aching and sometimes nausea. But let's not bog this thread down with topics that are more appropriate for medical forums. Exactly. A congested chest is not the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Exactly. A congested chest is not the flu. oh I thought you said you had a fever first, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 oh I thought you said you had a fever first, my bad. Oh, no. I was gonna say...I was wondering what you were talking about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Oh, no. I was gonna say...I was wondering what you were talking about lol hope you feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Pretty awesome video from Binghamton, NY NWS about the upcoming pattern change. https://www.facebook.com/NWSBinghamton/videos/1035431629852814/?theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Exactly. A congested chest is not the flu. Sounds more like an upper respiratory infection, which is often bacterial whereas the flu is viral. In any case, been noticing a lot of sick people all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sounds more like an upper respiratory infection, which is often bacterial whereas the flu is viral. In any case, been noticing a lot of sick people all of a sudden. I know...all at once. Its starting break up and come up....at least I can speak again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I think a lot of people obsess over every single model run and drive themselves $hithouse. Lots of bridge jumping in the NYC thread over the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I think a lot of people obsess over every single model run and drive themselves $hithouse. Lots of bridge jumping in the NYC thread over the long range. I have seen this a lot recently. People take the long range really seriously for some reason. Yes, things aren't looking up in the long range but you have to take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I have seen this a lot recently. People take the long range really seriously for some reason. Yes, things aren't looking up in the long range but you have to take it with a grain of salt. January has always been viewed as a transitional month...very possible we don't see much of anything until Feb, who knows. I do not get the angst over January....it has always viewed as iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 January has always been viewed as a transitional month...very possible we don't see much of anything until Feb, who knows. I do not get the angst over January....it has always viewed as iffy. It's a big winter month so they worry. Feb, the sun angle rises and they worry more. Anxiety sets in that winter is soon over and the seasonal depression that spring is near escalates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 January has always been viewed as a transitional month...very possible we don't see much of anything until Feb, who knows. I do not get the angst over January....it has always viewed as iffy. I understand the angst...you are very confident in your opinion of February making up the winter, but January is a deep winter month. You can certainly understand the angst over January if you remove yourself from your winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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