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December 23-27th Storm System's/Severe Weather Potential


HillsdaleMIWeather

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Greg Forbes with a 6/10 on his Torcon for Southern IL. 4 for Central IL and IN. 7/10 for NW AL, North MS, and West TN. 

Wow... that's really not good. 7/10 is pretty rare and we're still 36 hours from the event. Also the highest number we've seen this year

 

WEDNESDAY

Tornado outbreak likely, possibly starting in the morning, in extreme east TX, LA, MS, AL, northwest GA, west FL panhandle, TN, KY, extreme southwest OH, south and central IN, south and central IL, east-central and south MO, southwest, central and east AR. TORCON - 7 west TN, northwest AL, north MS; 6 - southeast MO, south IL, west KY, southeast AR; 5 northeast and central AL, central MS, north LA, northeast AR; 3 to 4 rest of area. Severe thunderstorms may linger in the east portion of this area into the overnight

 

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Wow... that's really not good. 7/10 is pretty rare and we're still 36 hours from the event. Also the highest number we've seen this year

We had 7/10 for either May 9 or May 16. Yeah, it's pretty rare. I'm expecting him to raise it more if we don't get the morning convection some of the models are saying. Which at this point seems less likely we'll see morning convection affecting the setup majorly. 

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45 degrees here at Indpls at noon Tuesday. I wonder about prospects for svr storms along the warm front before we get into the anticipated warm sector and its action.  Have not heard much about that.

My mom told me that there was thunder last night with strong winds. She told me that a morning radio station (I'm assuming WLW) reported trees down in the traffic report. But there are no severe reports, so I dunno.

 

 

 

When was the latest high risk in a year? I assume that this would be the latest first high risk as well if it does indeed become a high risk.

My guess is 11/17
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My mom told me that there was thunder last night with strong winds. She told me that a morning radio station (I'm assuming WLW) reported trees down. But there are no severe reports, so I dunno. But I believe her that there was thunder; the 12z ILN sounding showed 300 CAPE.

 

 

 
My guess is 11/17

 

I think it was 11/17, yes.

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day2otlk_1730.gif?1450805699553

...SUMMARY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM THE GREAT BASIN...INTO THE BASE OF CNTRL U.S. TROUGH OVER
TX...THEN NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOCUSED
12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SHIFT FROM KS/OK INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC CYCLONE SHIFTS FROM NERN KS
INTO THE U.P. OF MI. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LARGE-SCALE
ADJUSTMENT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE DAY1
INTO EARLY DAY2 CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND
MID-SOUTH REGION. THIS EARLY PERIOD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN BROADER RECOVERY PORTIONS OF THE OH/ERN TN
VALLEY.

LATEST THINKING IS A PW SURGE WILL ADVANCE NWD ACROSS ERN TX/OK LATE
DAY1 AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD SHIFT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY BY MID DAY AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG WRN FRINGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM
ADVECTION TSTM ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EVOLVE FROM CNTRL AR...NEWD INTO IL. IF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN RETURN INTO THIS CORRIDOR THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY ACROSS
AR/NRN LA THEN TRACK NEWD INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. VERY STRONG SHEAR
ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL REGION APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR POTENTIAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS IL/IND THEN
A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE COULD EVOLVE WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STRONG
FORCING WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AS 90KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE PROBS A BIT NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR STRONG FORCING.

..DARROW.. 12/22/2015

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My mom told me that there was thunder last night with strong winds. She told me that a morning radio station (I'm assuming WLW) reported trees down in the traffic report. But there are no severe reports, so I dunno.

 

 

 
My guess is 11/17

 

 

 

 

There was a high risk on 6/12/13, so it's not 11/17/13.

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Is 11-17 the latest high risk in general though? Not just latest first high risk

 

 

There have been later ones.  Looks like 12/23/2002 is the only high risk issued in December, or at least the only December high risk in relatively recent times as info becomes more sketchy farther back.

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There have been later ones.  Looks like 12/23/2002 is the only high risk issued in December, or at least the only December high risk in relatively recent times as info becomes more sketchy farther back.

12/23... That's ironic, that is what the date will be tomorrow.

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One thing that has me a little concerned is that people may be paying less attention to the weather tomorrow into Thursday for obvious reasons.  People paying less attention and potentially a larger number of people than normal being out and about tomorrow evening could be a problem if there are some badly placed cells. 

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One thing that has me a little concerned is that people may be paying less attention to the weather tomorrow into Thursday for obvious reasons.  People paying less attention and potentially a larger number of people than normal being out and about tomorrow evening could be a problem if there are some badly placed cells. 

Lots of shoppers and lots of travelers.

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One thing that has me a little concerned is that people may be paying less attention to the weather tomorrow into Thursday for obvious reasons.  People paying less attention and potentially a larger number of people than normal being out and about tomorrow evening could be a problem if there are some badly placed cells. 

 

I've already put the word out to our local officials and social media to be aware of the possibility of severe, although the better threat will be to our west and south. I don't want the general public to get caught with their pants down.

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ILN wrote a novel this morning... I won't post the whole thing but they brought up an interesting point 

 

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT THERE APPEARS
TO BE SOME POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HIGH-SHEAR REGIME THAT WILL SET UP
OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT APPEARING TO BE
HIGHEST FROM 00Z-09Z. BASED ON NAM/GFS FORECASTS AND SPC SREF
PROBABILITIES...LEGITIMATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...ON THE ORDER OF 200-500 J/KG. THOSE ARE
SUFFICIENT NUMBERS WHEN JUXTAPOSED WITH A HIGH-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE EXPECTED 65KTS-75KTS 0-6KM / 35KTS-40KTS
0-1KM SHEAR VALUES CERTAINLY QUALIFY FOR THAT. TO NO
SURPRISE...SHERB VALUES INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
THERMODYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THAT CAVEAT IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH LESS
CERTAIN...BECAUSE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT SIGNS THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS...AND RE-ORIENTING ITSELF ALMOST
COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING...AND WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
STILL VERY LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS AN
ATTENDANT EXPECTATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS WELL
ORGANIZED (AND LESS ROOTED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER) AS IT ENTERS
THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH NO CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER-END EVENT.
IF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR (IN THE EARLY EVENING)...THE STRONG SHEAR WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THAT TIME AS
WELL.

 

The rest of it:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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