MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Greg Forbes with a 6/10 on his Torcon for Southern IL. 4 for Central IL and IN. 7/10 for NW AL, North MS, and West TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Greg Forbes with a 6/10 on his Torcon for Southern IL. 4 for Central IL and IN. 7/10 for NW AL, North MS, and West TN. Wow... that's really not good. 7/10 is pretty rare and we're still 36 hours from the event. Also the highest number we've seen this year WEDNESDAYTornado outbreak likely, possibly starting in the morning, in extreme east TX, LA, MS, AL, northwest GA, west FL panhandle, TN, KY, extreme southwest OH, south and central IN, south and central IL, east-central and south MO, southwest, central and east AR. TORCON - 7 west TN, northwest AL, north MS; 6 - southeast MO, south IL, west KY, southeast AR; 5 northeast and central AL, central MS, north LA, northeast AR; 3 to 4 rest of area. Severe thunderstorms may linger in the east portion of this area into the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Wow... that's really not good. 7/10 is pretty rare and we're still 36 hours from the event. Also the highest number we've seen this year We had 7/10 for either May 9 or May 16. Yeah, it's pretty rare. I'm expecting him to raise it more if we don't get the morning convection some of the models are saying. Which at this point seems less likely we'll see morning convection affecting the setup majorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Seems like a Moderate will be coming at 1730Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 4 km still really bullish with instability farther north. 12 km NAM made a bit of a move that way but still has less CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Seems like a Moderate will be coming at 1730Z? Usually when Forbes goes with a 7/10, there's a moderate risk... if there's not, then there should've been. I think enhanced will be brought up closer to the Ohio River either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 45 degrees here at Indpls at noon Tuesday. I wonder about prospects for svr storms along the warm front before we get into the anticipated warm sector and its action. Have not heard much about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 High risk on the table for tomorrow if these models verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 When was the latest high risk in a year? I assume that this would be the latest first high risk as well if it does indeed become a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 45 degrees here at Indpls at noon Tuesday. I wonder about prospects for svr storms along the warm front before we get into the anticipated warm sector and its action. Have not heard much about that. My mom told me that there was thunder last night with strong winds. She told me that a morning radio station (I'm assuming WLW) reported trees down in the traffic report. But there are no severe reports, so I dunno. When was the latest high risk in a year? I assume that this would be the latest first high risk as well if it does indeed become a high risk. My guess is 11/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 My mom told me that there was thunder last night with strong winds. She told me that a morning radio station (I'm assuming WLW) reported trees down. But there are no severe reports, so I dunno. But I believe her that there was thunder; the 12z ILN sounding showed 300 CAPE. My guess is 11/17 I think it was 11/17, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Still an enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 ...SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRALGULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ISFORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEEVALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGINGWINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE....DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ALONG A CORRIDORFROM THE GREAT BASIN...INTO THE BASE OF CNTRL U.S. TROUGH OVERTX...THEN NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOCUSED12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SHIFT FROM KS/OK INTO THE UPPERGREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC CYCLONE SHIFTS FROM NERN KSINTO THE U.P. OF MI. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LARGE-SCALEADJUSTMENT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE DAY1INTO EARLY DAY2 CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES ANDMID-SOUTH REGION. THIS EARLY PERIOD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INHIBITDESTABILIZATION WITHIN BROADER RECOVERY PORTIONS OF THE OH/ERN TNVALLEY.LATEST THINKING IS A PW SURGE WILL ADVANCE NWD ACROSS ERN TX/OK LATEDAY1 AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD SHIFTINTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY BY MID DAY AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANTDESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG WRN FRINGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARMADVECTION TSTM ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGESTBOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILLEVOLVE FROM CNTRL AR...NEWD INTO IL. IF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVELMOISTURE CAN RETURN INTO THIS CORRIDOR THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREAOF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AT THISTIME IT APPEARS ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY ACROSSAR/NRN LA THEN TRACK NEWD INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. VERY STRONG SHEARALONG SRN FRINGES OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL REGION APPEARS TO BE THEFAVORED CORRIDOR FOR POTENTIAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS AFEW STRONG TORNADOES.IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS IL/IND THENA DAMAGING SQUALL LINE COULD EVOLVE WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STRONGFORCING WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE OH VALLEYAS 90KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE EVENINGHOURS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE PROBS A BIT NORTH TOACCOUNT FOR STRONG FORCING...DARROW.. 12/22/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 My mom told me that there was thunder last night with strong winds. She told me that a morning radio station (I'm assuming WLW) reported trees down in the traffic report. But there are no severe reports, so I dunno. My guess is 11/17 There was a high risk on 6/12/13, so it's not 11/17/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 There was a high risk on 6/12/13, so it's not 11/17/13. Is 11-17 the latest high risk in general though? Not just latest first high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Is 11-17 the latest high risk in general though? Not just latest first high risk There have been later ones. Looks like 12/23/2002 is the only high risk issued in December, or at least the only December high risk in relatively recent times as info becomes more sketchy farther back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 There have been later ones. Looks like 12/23/2002 is the only high risk issued in December, or at least the only December high risk in relatively recent times as info becomes more sketchy farther back. 12/23... That's ironic, that is what the date will be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 High risk type outcome seems possible but having to jump 2 categories doesn't totally inspire confidence that we'll get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 While I hate speculating on high risk details, if somehow one does get issued tomorrow(which I highly doubt at this point) , anything later than 6z would make it the latest on record. Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 High risk type outcome seems possible but having to jump 2 categories doesn't totally inspire confidence that we'll get there. It's jumped from a day 2 slight risk to a day 1 enhanced risk to a day 1 Moderate risk before. Should get a moderate risk in Day 1 update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Think those looking for a high risk are going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Dr. Forbes just posted this on FB This is just the third time this year where I've predicted a TOR:CON of 7, and that's the highest. The previous times were for May 9 and May 16, which had dozens of tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Think those looking for a high risk are going to be disappointed. just looking at it more from a trivia perspective. certainly not rooting for a high risk the day before Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 One thing that has me a little concerned is that people may be paying less attention to the weather tomorrow into Thursday for obvious reasons. People paying less attention and potentially a larger number of people than normal being out and about tomorrow evening could be a problem if there are some badly placed cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Think those looking for a high risk are going to be disappointed. Yeah, on the flip side though, this should be a mdt risk already but isn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 One thing that has me a little concerned is that people may be paying less attention to the weather tomorrow into Thursday for obvious reasons. People paying less attention and potentially a larger number of people than normal being out and about tomorrow evening could be a problem if there are some badly placed cells. Lots of shoppers and lots of travelers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 i think we'll see a tornado or two in LOT's cwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 One thing that has me a little concerned is that people may be paying less attention to the weather tomorrow into Thursday for obvious reasons. People paying less attention and potentially a larger number of people than normal being out and about tomorrow evening could be a problem if there are some badly placed cells. I've already put the word out to our local officials and social media to be aware of the possibility of severe, although the better threat will be to our west and south. I don't want the general public to get caught with their pants down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 ILN wrote a novel this morning... I won't post the whole thing but they brought up an interesting point ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THEPOTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER THEMID-SOUTH AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE THREAT FOR SEVEREWEATHER FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT THERE APPEARSTO BE SOME POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HIGH-SHEAR REGIME THAT WILL SET UPOVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT APPEARING TO BEHIGHEST FROM 00Z-09Z. BASED ON NAM/GFS FORECASTS AND SPC SREFPROBABILITIES...LEGITIMATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY APPEARSLIKELY TO DEVELOP...ON THE ORDER OF 200-500 J/KG. THOSE ARESUFFICIENT NUMBERS WHEN JUXTAPOSED WITH A HIGH-SHEARENVIRONMENT...AND THE EXPECTED 65KTS-75KTS 0-6KM / 35KTS-40KTS0-1KM SHEAR VALUES CERTAINLY QUALIFY FOR THAT. TO NOSURPRISE...SHERB VALUES INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ANDTHERMODYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THEASSUMPTION THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THISTIME FRAME. THAT CAVEAT IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH LESSCERTAIN...BECAUSE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT SIGNS THAT THE COLD FRONTWILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS...AND RE-ORIENTING ITSELF ALMOSTCOMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AWEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING...AND WHILE PRECIPITATION ISSTILL VERY LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS ANATTENDANT EXPECTATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS WELLORGANIZED (AND LESS ROOTED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER) AS IT ENTERSTHE ILN FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT FORECASTEXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATEDSEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH NO CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER-END EVENT. IFADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARMSECTOR (IN THE EARLY EVENING)...THE STRONG SHEAR WILL LEAD TO ATLEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THAT TIME ASWELL. The rest of it: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 i think we'll see a tornado or two in LOT's cwa Wouldn't shock me....we have seen what low 980 SLPs juxtaposed to upper 50 DPs can do...some ominous signals via helicities and simradar representations as well locally and off to our immediate west and southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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