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December 23-27th Storm System's/Severe Weather Potential


HillsdaleMIWeather

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That's because the CIPS products are highly domain dependent. If you choose the MW domain, only focus on the details in the actual MW region. The results are very different when looking at the "South East" for the same time. 

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=SE&rundt=2015122200

 

Think of it like a nested model like the Fire-Wx NAM or the HWRF. 

 

 

Yeah see my latest reply.  The list is almost entirely different...very few dates appear on both.

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I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south.  If anything it was more active farther north toward our area.  You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports.

 

 

 

attachicon.gifSVRall_N1_110km_nam212F048.png

 

 

attachicon.gifSVRall_N10_110km_nam212F048.png

If you click on the Southern box:

 

dAuQ56M.png

JtdCBz3.png

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Out of this forum but Something that should not be over looked with the "warm" side of this storm, is the flooding threat in western Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma. It's already been a wet winter there. Last several runs of the gfs are showing an additional 5-10 inches SGF Already onboard with the significant flooding event.

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Good to see all the models agreeing on some seasonably decent CAPE for most of the subforum. I remain very cautious about the potential for Cincinnati metro though. There's just not been very many good December severe events around here... it's hard not to be pessimistic. Maybe this event will change that feeling for future Decembers... who knows.

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Even if you reduced the CAPE by 25-50% on the 4k NAM you'd still be left with enough for severe weather. The HSLC parameters from the GFS look elevated from the southern half of MO into the southern portions of IL and IN. The NAM is obviously more aggressive and further north, but we already know that.

 

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New day 2

 

 

 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
   AND TN VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH FROM PARTS
   OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT FROM PARTS
   OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
   FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEE
   VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   WITHIN A BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW COVERING MUCH OF
   THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   QUICKLY PROGRESS FROM THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE
   CNTRL GREAT PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A STRONG LLJ IN THE WARM
   SECTOR ATTENDANT TO THE SFC CYCLONE. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INLAND
   FLUXES OF GULF-MODIFIED MOISTURE...WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF 60S SFC
   DEWPOINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
   EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE RICHER
   MOISTURE WILL BE MARKED BY A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TO S TX.

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   AS THE BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND COINCIDES WITH
   AMPLE DEEP SHEAR...A LONG-DURATION/SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE SVR RISK WILL
   EXIST THROUGH THE D2/WED PERIOD. MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF STRONG TO SVR
   TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FOCUSED IN A VARIETY
   OF REGIMES. DCVA PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
   DESTABILIZATION WILL ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-MS
   VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
   REGION...WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL.
   MEANWHILE...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE
   70S SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF THE GULF COAST. GIVEN
   ANTICIPATED NWD TRANSPORT OF THE RICH MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLATED
   SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SWD TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   THE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT PERIPHERAL TO THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...AND MLCAPE OF 500-1250 J/KG AIDED BY SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND
   63-66F...IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
   THE TN VALLEY AND VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH AT LEAST
   POCKETS OF INSOLATION SUPPORTING STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AN INFLUX OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...DIURNAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS
   REGION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY 50-60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED WITH
   AT LEAST SOME ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. WITH 60-70
   KT OF H7 FLOW ABOVE 45-55 KT OF H85 FLOW...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   ADEQUATE FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. DMGG WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL
   WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FARTHER S TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS DEEP ASCENT
   WILL BE MORE LACKING...THOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY TO THE COAST.

   THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG
   WINDS -- WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE RISK AREAS THROUGH WED
   NIGHT. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD...WHERE NOCTURNAL GAINS IN MLCINH WILL BE
   LIMITED BY THE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

   ..COHEN.. 12/22/2015

 

post-4544-0-48540900-1450767801_thumb.gi

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Call me picky or whatever... but after reading the outlook, I thought to myself, "that's it?" I'm glad they at least brought up the potential for significant tornadoes... but I wish they would've gone into more detail. Overall, though, not bad for the first day 2 outlook. Hopefully they dig in deeper with the next update.

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Call me picky or whatever... but after reading the outlook, I thought to myself, "that's it?" I'm glad they at least brought up the potential for significant tornadoes... but I wish they would've gone into more detail. Overall, though, not bad for the first day 2 outlook. Hopefully they dig in deeper with the next update.

 

Agreed there, also surprised that the Marginal didn't go up to Detroit based on the past 4 or 5 model runs. 

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Call me picky or whatever... but after reading the outlook, I thought to myself, "that's it?" I'm glad they at least brought up the potential for significant tornadoes... but I wish they would've gone into more detail. Overall, though, not bad for the first day 2 outlook. Hopefully they dig in deeper with the next update.

 

 

I thought it was pretty solid for the first day 2 outlook.  Clearly suggests the potential for a tornado outbreak.  I suppose they could've gone into more detail about our region but the main focus was on the enhanced risk area.

 

Do think we could see a northward expansion of the risk categories eventually.

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I'd argue Hoosier is right due to the magnitude of the event he mentions:

 

 

Here was the 20z outlook from 12/31/2010.  Wider risk area this time but very similar northward extent

 

attachicon.gifday1otlk_20101231_2000_prt.gif

I agree with both points. Both events were special in their own way. 12/21 was a more widespread severe event... while 12/31 was smaller but caused much more damage on a semi-local scale.

 

I think this event might be able to challenge both of those events... in terms of aerial extent and small scale damage

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Yeah, this would cause some insane supercells if this would somehow happen:

 

nam4kmUS_con_scp_045.gif

 

Sounding in the Indiana/Ohio border area near Indy: 

 

nam4km_2015122206_045_39.4--85.5.png

 

Also DTX provides the SPC's Day 2 cut off reasoning, which is logical:

 

NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CIN IN THE 1000-3000 FOOT LAYER
WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY PREVENT THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING
SURFACE. SPC DAY 2 HAS PLACED THE MARGINAL RISK UP TO THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT NORTHWARD REVISION REMAINS IN PLAY DOWN THE
ROAD IF THE BETTER GULF MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PINCHED OFF.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

330 AM CST TUE DEC 22

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)

ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

Warm and unsettled weather will be the rule over the next several

days...with the potential for severe thunderstorms and record high

temperatures on Wednesday and copious amounts of rainfall next

A potentially volatile day is unfolding on Wednesday as deepening

low pressure tracks from near Kansas City early in the day to Lake

Superior by evening. Strong southerly winds gusting to between 30

and 40 mph ahead of the approaching system will bring an

unseasonably warm and humid airmass into Illinois, with afternoon

high temperatures climbing to near record levels in the middle 60s

and surface dewpoints reaching the middle to upper 50s. Models

continue to show strong instability developing for this time of

year, with NAM SBCAPES of 500-1000J/kg and lifted index values of -2

to -4C. At the same time, 0-6km bulk shear will increase to between

70 and 80kt along/south of the I-70 corridor. Latest Day 2

convective outlook from SPC now places all areas east of the

Illinois River under a Slight Risk for severe. Based on current

projections and model forecast parameters, it appears the primary

severe weather threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail,

although an isolated tornado will also be possible given the

increasing shear values. The main time frame for severe will be

during the afternoon east of the Illinois River, shifting to

along/east of the I-57 corridor by early evening. Cold front will

sweep through the region by around midnight, with rain chances

ending overnight.

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For south of the subforum's area, but most of the discussion is in here as far as I know.

US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama added 2 new photos.

7 mins ·

*Severe Weather Outbreak Expected on Wednesday and Wednesday Night*

Graphic 1 (Wednesday 3 PM - Midnight)

Confidence has increased enough for us to upgrade the Northwest part of the area to a Significant Risk. This is due to the potential for strong and long-lived tornadoes tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.

Graphic 2 (Thursday Morning 12 AM - 6 AM)

The severe weather threat, including the threat for tornadoes, is now expected to continue after midnight tomorrow night.

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