Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's because the CIPS products are highly domain dependent. If you choose the MW domain, only focus on the details in the actual MW region. The results are very different when looking at the "South East" for the same time. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=SE&rundt=2015122200 Think of it like a nested model like the Fire-Wx NAM or the HWRF. Yeah see my latest reply. The list is almost entirely different...very few dates appear on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south. If anything it was more active farther north toward our area. You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports. SVRall_N1_110km_nam212F048.png SVRall_N10_110km_nam212F048.png If you click on the Southern box: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Still have this thing in the distance. Wild that some areas of the subforum could be looking at another severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Wooh Mama, the 0Z GFS is much more NAM like. Higher Instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Out of this forum but Something that should not be over looked with the "warm" side of this storm, is the flooding threat in western Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma. It's already been a wet winter there. Last several runs of the gfs are showing an additional 5-10 inches SGF Already onboard with the significant flooding event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 If I were SPC I would extend the slight risk northward into at least central IL/IN on the day 2 outlook. Could certainly make a case for going farther north but considering where it is now, I think that might be the most we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Good to see all the models agreeing on some seasonably decent CAPE for most of the subforum. I remain very cautious about the potential for Cincinnati metro though. There's just not been very many good December severe events around here... it's hard not to be pessimistic. Maybe this event will change that feeling for future Decembers... who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Even if you reduced the CAPE by 25-50% on the 4k NAM you'd still be left with enough for severe weather. The HSLC parameters from the GFS look elevated from the southern half of MO into the southern portions of IL and IN. The NAM is obviously more aggressive and further north, but we already know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 New day 2 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SYNOPSIS... WITHIN A BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROGRESS FROM THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A STRONG LLJ IN THE WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO THE SFC CYCLONE. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INLAND FLUXES OF GULF-MODIFIED MOISTURE...WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF 60S SFC DEWPOINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE MARKED BY A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TO S TX. ...CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY... AS THE BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND COINCIDES WITH AMPLE DEEP SHEAR...A LONG-DURATION/SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE SVR RISK WILL EXIST THROUGH THE D2/WED PERIOD. MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FOCUSED IN A VARIETY OF REGIMES. DCVA PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED DESTABILIZATION WILL ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION...WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL. MEANWHILE...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF THE GULF COAST. GIVEN ANTICIPATED NWD TRANSPORT OF THE RICH MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SWD TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT PERIPHERAL TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND MLCAPE OF 500-1250 J/KG AIDED BY SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 63-66F...IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY AND VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH AT LEAST POCKETS OF INSOLATION SUPPORTING STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AN INFLUX OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS REGION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY 50-60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED WITH AT LEAST SOME ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. WITH 60-70 KT OF H7 FLOW ABOVE 45-55 KT OF H85 FLOW...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FARTHER S TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS DEEP ASCENT WILL BE MORE LACKING...THOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS -- WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE RISK AREAS THROUGH WED NIGHT. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD...WHERE NOCTURNAL GAINS IN MLCINH WILL BE LIMITED BY THE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ..COHEN.. 12/22/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Call me picky or whatever... but after reading the outlook, I thought to myself, "that's it?" I'm glad they at least brought up the potential for significant tornadoes... but I wish they would've gone into more detail. Overall, though, not bad for the first day 2 outlook. Hopefully they dig in deeper with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Call me picky or whatever... but after reading the outlook, I thought to myself, "that's it?" I'm glad they at least brought up the potential for significant tornadoes... but I wish they would've gone into more detail. Overall, though, not bad for the first day 2 outlook. Hopefully they dig in deeper with the next update. Agreed there, also surprised that the Marginal didn't go up to Detroit based on the past 4 or 5 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Call me picky or whatever... but after reading the outlook, I thought to myself, "that's it?" I'm glad they at least brought up the potential for significant tornadoes... but I wish they would've gone into more detail. Overall, though, not bad for the first day 2 outlook. Hopefully they dig in deeper with the next update. I thought it was pretty solid for the first day 2 outlook. Clearly suggests the potential for a tornado outbreak. I suppose they could've gone into more detail about our region but the main focus was on the enhanced risk area. Do think we could see a northward expansion of the risk categories eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 This has to be one of the biggest risk areas that SPC has issued in December. The only one I can think of off the top of my head that would rival this one would be the 12/31/2010 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 This has to be one of the biggest risk areas that SPC has issued in December. The only one I can think of off the top of my head that would rival this one would be the 12/31/2010 event. I think 12/21/13 beat that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I think 12/21/13 beat that Forgot that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I think 12/21/13 beat that I'd argue Hoosier is right due to the magnitude of the event he mentions: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Here was the 20z outlook from 12/31/2010. Wider risk area this time but very similar northward extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I'd argue Hoosier is right due to the magnitude of the event he mentions: Here was the 20z outlook from 12/31/2010. Wider risk area this time but very similar northward extent day1otlk_20101231_2000_prt.gif I agree with both points. Both events were special in their own way. 12/21 was a more widespread severe event... while 12/31 was smaller but caused much more damage on a semi-local scale. I think this event might be able to challenge both of those events... in terms of aerial extent and small scale damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 SREF starting to key in on a potential to the north with the latest run: Continuing the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Please, don't make this like Twitter.. Some of you know what that means. Anyways, NAM seems to have gone crazy. Ridiculous CAPE amounts on the 4k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Morning AFDs this morning are steamy, IWX still likes a solid threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Well the 06z 4 km really upped the ante further north. Pretty ridiculous sounding here in between Indy and Cinci, note the 90 kts of effective shear and 6.9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates at 03z. Also 3 km CAPE of >125 J/kg and RMS motion of 65 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yeah, this would cause some insane supercells if this would somehow happen: Sounding in the Indiana/Ohio border area near Indy: Also DTX provides the SPC's Day 2 cut off reasoning, which is logical: NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CIN IN THE 1000-3000 FOOT LAYERWHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY PREVENT THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHINGSURFACE. SPC DAY 2 HAS PLACED THE MARGINAL RISK UP TO THE SOUTHERNMICHIGAN BORDER...BUT NORTHWARD REVISION REMAINS IN PLAY DOWN THEROAD IF THE BETTER GULF MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PINCHED OFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Lincoln IL 330 AM CST TUE DEC 22 .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 Warm and unsettled weather will be the rule over the next several days...with the potential for severe thunderstorms and record high temperatures on Wednesday and copious amounts of rainfall next A potentially volatile day is unfolding on Wednesday as deepening low pressure tracks from near Kansas City early in the day to Lake Superior by evening. Strong southerly winds gusting to between 30 and 40 mph ahead of the approaching system will bring an unseasonably warm and humid airmass into Illinois, with afternoon high temperatures climbing to near record levels in the middle 60s and surface dewpoints reaching the middle to upper 50s. Models continue to show strong instability developing for this time of year, with NAM SBCAPES of 500-1000J/kg and lifted index values of -2 to -4C. At the same time, 0-6km bulk shear will increase to between 70 and 80kt along/south of the I-70 corridor. Latest Day 2 convective outlook from SPC now places all areas east of the Illinois River under a Slight Risk for severe. Based on current projections and model forecast parameters, it appears the primary severe weather threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail, although an isolated tornado will also be possible given the increasing shear values. The main time frame for severe will be during the afternoon east of the Illinois River, shifting to along/east of the I-57 corridor by early evening. Cold front will sweep through the region by around midnight, with rain chances ending overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 For south of the subforum's area, but most of the discussion is in here as far as I know. US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama added 2 new photos. 7 mins · *Severe Weather Outbreak Expected on Wednesday and Wednesday Night* Graphic 1 (Wednesday 3 PM - Midnight) Confidence has increased enough for us to upgrade the Northwest part of the area to a Significant Risk. This is due to the potential for strong and long-lived tornadoes tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Graphic 2 (Thursday Morning 12 AM - 6 AM) The severe weather threat, including the threat for tornadoes, is now expected to continue after midnight tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Certainly does seem the models are picking up on a more serious severe threat further north, especially into south Indiana and into Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z 4km NAM still rollin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Boy, do these models look nasty down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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