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December 23-27th Storm System's/Severe Weather Potential


HillsdaleMIWeather

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Any ideas on what the SPC is thinking for tomorrow's Day 2 outlook? Will we see an upgrade to enhanced or moderate for MS, AR, TN?

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I could see a 30 hatched area in the morning and upgraded to a mdt in the afternoon once the modeling gets a bit better closer in.

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I could see a 30 hatched area in the morning and upgraded to a mdt in the afternoon once the modeling gets a bit better closer in.

Alright, thanks everyone for your thoughts. I don't like to criticize but I'm not sure why they didn't just go enhanced on the Day 3. Things were looking pretty intense at this time last night. Stay safe all.

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Alright, thanks everyone for your thoughts. I don't like to criticize but I'm not sure why they didn't just go enhanced on the Day 3. Things were looking pretty intense at this time last night. Stay safe all.

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It should have been a 30%, i didn't buy the reasoning given, not to bash SPC but that wasn't a good outlook nor was the day 4 the day before.

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DISCUSSION...

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TUESDAY WAS REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTIVE
COASTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT.
IN FACT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION TO BE FOUND ON THE 4KM
NAM...NMM...AND ARW MODELS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXTREMELY
CONCERNING BECAUSE A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP WELL INLAND IF
THESE MODELS ARE ACCURATE. WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT REMOVED FROM
THE GULF COAST...AND STRAIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INDICATED BY THE
SURFACE ISOBARS...I BELIEVE REASON FOR WIDESPREAD MODEL QPF ALONG
THE COAST IS MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN GLOBAL MODELS.

THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES TO OVERSPREAD A RICH WARM SECTOR. IF THIS WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS...UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT WOULD AID IN AIRMASS/CELLULAR
TYPE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...NORTH OF THE 576 DM 500 MB HEIGHT
CONTOUR...WHERE 500 MB WINDS WILL EXCEED 60 KTS. WE WILL HOLD OUR
THREAT LEVELS STEADY FOR THIS UPDATE AND MAKE SURE WE DON`T JUMP
THE GUN. IF SHORT-RANGE MODELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INDICATE LITTLE
TO NO GULF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPGRADE TO THE
THREAT WILL BE NEEDED.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z THURSDAY AS
THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY...BUT A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A
TRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND TALL CAPE PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL IF STORMS DEVELOP.

 
 
 
Wow, NWS Birmingham is really concerned. They're usually pretty conservative too. 
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Stop.

 

Unless you're going to provide evidence on why, just read more and post less please.

 

 

I don't understand why you guys are giving him such a hard time. It's like you find someone to dogpile on despite the fact that this kinda thing happens often with other posters. 

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SREF starting to key in on a potential to the north with the latest run:

 

qFMXt9U.gif

 

That's suprisingly nice, the SREF is also forecasting Widespread >3 Supercell composites in our subforum east of Chicago.

 

SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f051.gif

 

Sig Tor's aren't great around here, but are nice down south. 

 

SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f051.gif

 

(Going off topic for a split second here, if you don't like any of my past, present or future posts, send me a PM, don't talk about it in the thread, this is a weather forum and we don't need drama)

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I don't understand why you guys are giving him such a hard time. It's like you find someone to dogpile on despite the fact that this kinda thing happens often with other posters. 

 

 

That particular post wasn't that out there...if Stebo or any number of people would've posted the same thing I doubt there would've been a reaction.  I think the body of work has been off putting for some and Andy did have a point earlier about the unnecessary one liners that don't really add anything.  We all do it sometimes but it's a problem when it becomes the majority of your posts. 

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0z NAM/4km NAM seemed slower.

 

A bit more significant down south LA/AR/MS/TN as well. With a still decent threat across IL/IN/KY/S. MI.

Yeah it is slower especially with the moisture transport. That being said they already were on the slower end of guidance to begin with.

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The 4km nam has a prefrontal convergence zone that blocks the moisture transport up to MI NW IN and N IL. It is a possible outcome but would be a mesoscale feature to watch once we get much closer.

 

It's looking like there's a morning MCV type feature across MS/AL on the 4km NAM. 

 

Not good news at all if it holds up for Dixie. 

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The 4km nam has a prefrontal convergence zone that blocks the moisture transport up to MI NW IN and N IL. It is a possible outcome but would be a mesoscale feature to watch once we get much closer.

Looks like it's tied to that initial round of convection earlier in the day.

 

The terrain in the Ozarks doesn't help either, as that hinders moisture return many times as well. (Evident in this case to a degree).

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It's looking like there's a morning MCV type feature across MS/AL on the 4km NAM. 

 

Not good news at all if it holds up for Dixie. 

 

Looks like it's tied to that initial round of convection earlier in the day.

 

The terrain in the Ozarks doesn't help either, as that hinders moisture return many times as well. (Evident in this case to a degree).

Yeah, have to remember 4/27/11 had the same issue with the initial round of convection, not saying this event is like that but there are some similarities. Have to remember there was a mdt pretty far north but the stuff remained TN south that day.

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Looks like there could be some elevated supercells "behind" the MCV... but thankfully, looks like it'd stay away from the main threat area because another devastating factor of 4/27 was the fact that the morning storms caused widespread power outages in some of the same areas that were flattened later in the day. 

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I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south.  If anything it was more active farther north toward our area.  You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports.

 

 

 

post-14-0-37806800-1450758546_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-34180200-1450758553_thumb.png

 

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I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south.  If anything it was more active farther north toward our area.  You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports.

 

 

 

attachicon.gifSVRall_N1_110km_nam212F048.png

 

 

attachicon.gifSVRall_N10_110km_nam212F048.png

 

 

 

And now I changed the domain from Mississippi Valley to Southeast and the analog list is a lot different than the one for the MV domain.  The analogs for the Southeast domain are pretty robust in terms of severe weather, so what this may be suggesting is that the threat area is huge.

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I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south.  If anything it was more active farther north toward our area.  You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports.

 

 

 

 

 

That's because the CIPS products are highly domain dependent. If you choose the MW domain, only focus on the details in the actual MW region. The results are very different when looking at the "South East" for the same time. 

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=SE&rundt=2015122200

 

Think of it like a nested model like the Fire-Wx NAM or the HWRF. 

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