andyhb Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 GGEM is closer to the NAM than the GFS. ECMWF is looking good... We can see the models, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 For what it's worth, here's the WPC's model thoughts: 0Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF ANDPREFERENCESSHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED...PREFERENCE: ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE NAM MOVES PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCEAND GFS TOWARD THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER REACHING THEPLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF NEAR THE MIDDLE AND BETTER SUPPORTED BYENSEMBLES. THUS...RECOMMEND THE ECMWF.SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER THE OH-TN VALLEYS EASTWARD TUE-WED...PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND GFS/ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE NAM DEVELOPS A DEEPER AND STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDINGNORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY THAT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ITSFASTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTION OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWER SHORTWAVETROUGH PROGRESSION THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THAT MAGNIFIES THEAGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REAR OF THE UPPER JET. THE GFS ANDECMWF SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND HAVE BETTERSUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES. THUS...THE NAM IS LIKELY TOO VIGOROUSAND POSSIBLY QUICK WITH ITS ASCENT AND MOISTURE FIELDS...WITH THEGFS/ECMWF LIKELY MORE REALISTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Still two days out, but chasing potential is increasing for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is going to make it difficult to control a sleigh very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 gonna get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 12Z GFS increased the instability slightly. The NAM really did, and looks great for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 gonna get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 For once, I buy the NAM more than the GFS, it doesn't look like it has a good handle on wintertime instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looking at CIPS analogs from the 12z NAM, over half produced severe weather in the region, with a big boy on the list (11/17/2013). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 nam4km_ref_ncus_20.png noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/2015122112/F060/MV_060/SVRnam212F060.png Double noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/2015122112/F060/MV_060/SVRnam212F060.png Double noice One thing I'd like to see added to CIPS is the option to remove certain years from the composite. You put 11/17/2013 on there and it looks like the end of the world is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 4 km has some nice instability...looks a bit like the Euro from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 4 km has some nice instability...looks a bit like the Euro from yesterday. nam4kmFLT_con_sbcape_057.gif That could be nasty. A sounding just southwest of Springfield has 1500 CAPE Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That could be nasty. A sounding just southwest of Springfield has 1500 CAPE Geez Would be something if that verifies. Can't recall seeing that much CAPE so far north in December. Somewhere in central IL looks like it could work for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Would be something if that verifies. Can't recall seeing that much CAPE so far north in December. Somewhere in central IL looks like it could work for chasing. 954 j/kg is ILX's max CAPE for the date. 1500 j/kg would shatter the previous climatology record for December as a whole (~1100 j/kg set in very early December) Dr. Forbes just updated his outlook for Wednesday, saying a tornado outbreak is likely. Granted, he's not talking about this subforum... but I'm mentioning this in case we're still considering moving this to the main forum. WEDNESDAYTornado outbreak likely, probably ongoing in the morning, in east TX, LA, south, central, and northeast AR, southeast MO, south IL, southwest IN, west KY, west and middle TN, west half AL, west FL panhandle, MS. TORCON - 5 west TN, east AR, MS, LA, east TX; 4 - west AL, middle TN; 3 - rest of area. The severe threat continues overnight in AL, west FL panhandle, middle and east TN, central and east KY, south IN. TORCON - 3 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 I can probably see a Slight risk for most of the sun forum being introduced tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I can probably see a Slight risk for most of the sun forum being introduced tomorrow. Possible, but my subjective observation over the years has been that SPC tends to be conservative with northern threats at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Really looking forward to reading some AFDs this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 If it weren't for the fact that the Euro was also showing the higher CAPEs I would probably be heavily discounting the NAM values right now. But... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 But... The 12Z Euro has eerily similar numbers to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 All December tornadoes...no surprise here, the map is loaded south of us December EF2+ tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 what event(s) are those N. WI twisters associated with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 what event(s) are those N. WI twisters associated with? The 4 northern ones were December 1, 1970. The one west of Milwaukee was December 3, 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I think it's safe enough to move it to main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 IWXs afternoon AFD mentions low topped supercells even if we get low end GFS instability with a much higher threat if the Euro/NAM verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 IND makes no mention of severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 IND makes no mention of severe weather ...um... what? Really, they have a higher risk then us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1000 J/kg SBCAPE in southern Michigan at 3z in late December. Is the 4km off its rocker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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