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December 23-27th Storm System's/Severe Weather Potential


HillsdaleMIWeather

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 232226Z - 232330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR
MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF NRN AL.

DISCUSSION...AN UPSTREAM BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN TN AND
NRN MS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
THESE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED AN INCREASING TREND IN
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. MODEST MOISTENING FROM THE S WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR AS THE MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EWD. THIS...ALONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH
VALUES RANGING FROM 300-600 M2/S2 RECENTLY OBSERVED PER HTX AND OHX
VWP DATA...SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EWD...REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A NEW TORNADO WATCH BY 23Z.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 12/23/2015

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NTON MS-TIPPAH MS-  
448 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  
   
..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY
 
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR  
NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND NORTHWESTERN TIPPAH COUNTIES...  
 
AT 447 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
NEAR CANAAN...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIPLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
60 MPH.  
 
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY. TAKE COVER NOW. THIS  
IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

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Don't want to be one of those guys who cancels things early but can't say I'm that enthused about the Illinois cells.  Dews out ahead seem lower than originally progged and it's all but assured that the higher end instability won't pan out.  Not entirely writing it off with some instability/steepening lapse rates but optimism trending down.     

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Even after this line moving currently through passes through, it looks like more storms are likely to move up again from and through southern Indiana. The RAP keeps parameters high through the night ahead of the second line. Chances are that will be the main show with both greater shear an instability available than to the current line.

sherb_s3_6_ma.png

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Another TE...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  TORNADO WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  456 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015     ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY  NORTHEASTBENTON  COUNTY...SOUTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY...AND MCNAIRY COUNTY.    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...    NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...    NORTHWESTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...    NORTHWESTERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...    MCNAIRY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...    SOUTHEASTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...    * UNTIL 545 PM CST        * AT 454 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS    OBSERVED NEAR CANAAN...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF RIPLEY...MOVING    NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.      THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY...NORTHEAST  BENTON COUNTY...SOUTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY...AND MCNAIRY COUNTY. TAKE  COVER NOW. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.       HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.       SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.       IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS              MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE              HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO              HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE              DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.     * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...    BIG HILL POND STATE PARK AND POCAHONTAS AROUND 510 PM CST.    SELMER AROUND 525 PM CST.    OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  CYPRESS...CHALYBEATE...BETHEL SPRINGS...CAFFEY...FORTY FORKS...  BROWNFIELD...OLD LAWTON...NEW CANAAN...RAMER AND BRODY. 
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Cleveland's warning for the line coming out of IWX is a bit up there

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...
  LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...
  HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 556 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR BLISSFIELD TO NEAR COLUMBUS GROVE...MOVING EAST
  AT 65 MPH.

  THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

457 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  

 

ILC161-IAC045-163-232315-  

/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151223T2315Z/  

ROCK ISLAND IL-CLINTON IA-SCOTT IA-  

457 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR EASTERN  

ROCK ISLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON AND EASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...  

 

AT 457 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCK ISLAND...  

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A TORNADO AROUND 445 PM CST.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  

TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  

RIVERDALE AROUND 500 PM CST.  

BETTENDORF...EAST MOLINE AND SILVIS AROUND 505 PM CST.  

LE CLAIRE...HAMPTON AND RAPIDS CITY AROUND 510 PM CST.  

PORT BYRON...PRINCETON...CORDOVA AND MCCAUSLAND AROUND 515 PM CST.  

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Don't want to be one of those guys who cancels things early but can't say I'm that enthused about the Illinois cells.  Dews out ahead seem lower than originally progged and it's all but assured that the higher end instability won't pan out.  Not entirely writing it off with some instability/steepening lapse rates but optimism trending down.     

No, it's over.

 

The affects of the early convection were too overpowering. Temps and DP's are lower than expected and what I'd like to see. Instability is much less, and is tied to a narrow corridor along the front.

 

Cells are weakening/diminishing from south to north in that line. Only chance remains for a short time with the cell in the QCA and the other north of GBG, before they weaken as well.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

508 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  

 

ILC161-IAC045-163-232315-  

/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151223T2315Z/  

ROCK ISLAND IL-CLINTON IA-SCOTT IA-  

508 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR EASTERN  

ROCK ISLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON AND EASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...  

 

AT 508 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LE CLAIRE...OR  

NEAR BETTENDORF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

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I'm shocked there's no warning on the line about to rip through NW Ohio. Velocity scans are pretty good and the line is well defined with good returns. Also starting to see some subtle kinks in it as well

 

 

Cleveland's warning for the line coming out of IWX is a bit up there

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...

  LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...

  HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 556 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

  EXTENDING FROM NEAR BLISSFIELD TO NEAR COLUMBUS GROVE...MOVING EAST

  AT 65 MPH.

  THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

 

Wasn't expecting a T'storm warning today but CLE seems really over the top... especially considering they had just issues a SWS for up to 50mph wind gusts! 

 

Storm should be here in 10 minutes, we'll see how high winds really get. 

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