ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 On 12/20/2015 at 11:05 PM, andyhb said: Not really. The wind profile profile, despite some veering with height, is fairly unidirectional. That isn't going to lead to the super high SRH values. I see that, but I think I've seen relatively straighter hodographs with higher SRH than that The SRH below 1km is good though; not every event is gonna be a 3/2/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/20/2015 at 10:24 PM, Hoosier said: Here's some maps of December severe weather events in this region that I posted last year. As you can see, it's usually a south of I-80 thing, but not always. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44964-early-december-severe-potential/?p=3149100 The 2008 event was a fun one if I remember right it got started late morning/early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 SREF has a peak mean of 320 MUCAPE and 210 MLCAPE for me. Not bad for a potential HSLC event. But it doesn't look very good for the majority of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 12:10 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said: SREF has a peak mean of 320 MUCAPE and 210 MLCAPE for me. Not bad for a potential HSLC event. But it doesn't look very good for the majority of this subforum. Could be worse, higher instability is north and south of you in this situation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 12:10 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said: SREF has a peak mean of 320 MUCAPE and 210 MLCAPE for me. Not bad for a potential HSLC event. But it doesn't look very good for the majority of this subforum. On 12/21/2015 at 12:32 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Could be worse, higher instability is north and south of you in this situation though. It is the SREF at its furthest range, lets be a bit more cautious of using the SREF this far out, it is going to have a hard time. Once you get in the 48 hour range it has more of a use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 12:32 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Could be worse, higher instability is north and south of you in this situation though. Well yeah, on the other models... not on the SREF though. On 12/21/2015 at 12:36 AM, Stebo said: It is the SREF at its furthest range, lets be a bit more cautious of using the SREF this far out, it is going to have a hard time. Once you get in the 48 hour range it has more of a use. Yeah, just like NAM and GFS, gotta use with caution. NAM's too aggressive, GFS is too passive, and I'm not exactly sure what SREF is - I wanna say it's more like the GFS than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'll take the orange ensemble member please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 2:05 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'll take the orange ensemble member please You probably don't need to post every SREF run for your location, this thread is meant for general discussion of the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is a huge area with strong 850 mb winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 2:22 AM, Stebo said: You probably don't need to post every SREF run for your location, this thread is meant for general discussion of the region... I know, that wasn't my intention... but fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yea, 00z NAM has a pretty impressive wind field as well. Giant area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Isn't it time we move this to the main thread? I know you guys usually reserve it for high end events but it's looking more and more like this could be that caliber. I think this could be what keeps 2015 from going down as a year without a high risk if these model trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 2:40 AM, rolltide_130 said: Isn't it time we move this to the main thread? I know you guys usually reserve it for high end events but it's looking more and more like this could be that caliber. I think this could be what keeps 2015 from going down as a year without a high risk if these model trends continue. It'd probably be for the better if it was moved to the main forum. That way everyone could easily find the convo instead of having to look through the different sub-forums. Edit: Or, have a bulletin on the front page or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Not Euro like (which had 1000 J/kg into the southwestern LOT cwa) but it's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 2:47 AM, Hoosier said: Not Euro like (which had 1000 J/kg into the southwestern LOT cwa) but it's a start namCGP_con_mucape_072.gif Trend is our friend here, the key too though is looking at the soundings, the 0-3km cape is in the 150-200 range there, good for stretching the surface vorticity. If values continue to rise this could really get very ominous as you noted with the winds just off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 2:59 AM, Stebo said: Trend is our friend here, the key too though is looking at the soundings, the 0-3km cape is in the 150-200 range there, good for stretching the surface vorticity. If values continue to rise this could really get very ominous as you noted with the winds just off the surface. How do you know the 0-3km CAPE? Or is that also known as SBCAPE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 3:15 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said: How do you know the 0-3km CAPE? Or is that also known as SBCAPE? Earl Barker has it. The maps are God awful to look at but you can get an idea. http://wxcaster.com/smallfiles_central_svr.htm Difference between SBCAPE and 0-3km CAPE is that SBCAPE will give you the CAPE all the way up to the EL. 0-3km just gives you the value in the lowest 3 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 3:21 AM, Hoosier said: Earl Barker has it. The maps are God awful to look at but you can get an idea. http://wxcaster.com/smallfiles_central_svr.htm Difference between SBCAPE and 0-3km CAPE is that SBCAPE will give you the CAPE all the way up to the EL. 0-3km just gives you the value in the lowest 3 km. CENTRAL_ETA212_0-3KM_CAPE_72HR.gif Thanks much! Awesome link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yeah, that 0Z NAM has widespread 3-4 Supercell Composites. Would be very bumpy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I hesitate to get into storm modes/hazards yet but fwiw, the January 7, 2008 system that produced tornadoes in northern IL/southeast WI had MLCAPE of 500-750+ J/kg and dews in the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 West of Indy/south of LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 3:46 AM, Hoosier said: I hesitate to get into storm modes/hazards yet but fwiw, the January 7, 2008 system that produced tornadoes in northern IL/southeast WI had MLCAPE of 500-750+ J/kg and dews in the mid 50s. Funny you mentioned that day...I was actually in Harvard, IL today, site of the EF-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 00z GFS is a fair amount weaker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 3:52 AM, Hoosier said: 00z GFS is a fair amount weaker this run. Doesn't look like it handled it too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 00z GGEM still has the surface low near Kansas City at 00z Thursday. Almost thought I was looking at the wrong timestamp at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 GGEM is closer to the NAM than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 3:21 AM, Hoosier said: Earl Barker has it. The maps are God awful to look at but you can get an idea. http://wxcaster.com/smallfiles_central_svr.htm Difference between SBCAPE and 0-3km CAPE is that SBCAPE will give you the CAPE all the way up to the EL. 0-3km just gives you the value in the lowest 3 km. CENTRAL_ETA212_0-3KM_CAPE_72HR.gif The soundings on COD also have 3km CAPE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 3:52 AM, Hoosier said: 00z GFS is a fair amount weaker this run. GGEM and UKMET are still strong, I am thinking this just might be GFS blip run, that said, the GFS did go up in instability over the warm sector, so the slight drop in shear was made up for in instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On 12/21/2015 at 6:03 AM, Stebo said: GGEM and UKMET are still strong, I am thinking this just might be GFS blip run, that said, the GFS did go up in instability over the warm sector, so the slight drop in shear was made up for in instability. Waiting on the Euro and it's extremely slow release on COD. I don't expect too much change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 ECMWF is looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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