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December 23-27th Storm System's/Severe Weather Potential


HillsdaleMIWeather

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I haven't had much interest in this event being on the eastern flanks of the threat area.     But now that the sun is making a bit of an appearance, temps rising in the mid 60's, and healthy looking radar returns firing in IN,   I'm officially at least mildly interested.  Only mildly because  I've seen this scenario many times in the warm season, where the good stuff fires up in IN in the late afternoon and by the time it reaches us after dark it's a 30 min windy rain storm and a clap of thunder or two.

 

Your about to get a watch:

 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS EASTERN IND AND INTO WESTERN OH THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF

LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE

SEGMENT OVER SOUTHERN IND...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT

AROUND 50 KNOTS. THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGE SWATH OF

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM AR/MO

INTO IND. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY

LESS UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR.

HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM COMBINED

WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATES THAT RISK OF DAMAGING

WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...

ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF WW 560 BEFORE 22Z.

THEREFORE NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

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Your about to get a watch:

 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS EASTERN IND AND INTO WESTERN OH THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF

LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE

SEGMENT OVER SOUTHERN IND...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT

AROUND 50 KNOTS. THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGE SWATH OF

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM AR/MO

INTO IND. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY

LESS UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR.

HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM COMBINED

WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATES THAT RISK OF DAMAGING

WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...

ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF WW 560 BEFORE 22Z.

THEREFORE NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

 

Looks like CMH might barely make it into the eventual watch box if at all...biggest threat is clearly west of us, cincy, dayton,....for us it all depends on how long the favorable environment can maintain itself and how far away from the main low.   That and the timing are definitely not in our favor.

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The lack of conformed tornadoes so far today today is surprising

 

so far...

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0249 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  

 

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WEST TN  

 

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...  

 

VALID 232049Z - 232215Z  

 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.  

 

SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS  

CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  

 

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND  

INTENSITY OVER EASTERN AR...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF PAH - BYH -  

WEST OF MEM. SEVERAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE HAVE DEVELOPED  

PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL /UP TO  

BASEBALL SIZE/. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL  

ROTATION HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THESE STORMS...AND SO FAR THE TORNADO  

RISK HAS BEEN LIMITED. THE VAD PROFILE AT MEM SHOWS INTENSE LOW  

LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH 0-3KM SRH  

VALUES NOW OVER 700 M2/S2. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S  

INTO WEST TN IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES TO MAINTAIN A RISK  

OF STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  

 

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER WEST TN AHEAD OF  

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW MAY BE  

NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 559 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF  

HOURS...INCLUDING MORE OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTHWEST AL.  

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

242 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015  

   

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  

 

242 PM CST  

 

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH  

STRATIFORM RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS  

AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF  

KDSM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH  

ACROSS MISSOURI. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU AND A  

FEW CB/S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN  

THE MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. 18Z SPECIAL  

SOUNDING OUT OF KDVN SHOWED AROUND 250 J/KG SBCAPE WITH FAIRLY  

INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  

SHOWS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND  

SOUTHEASTERN COINCIDENT WITH THE CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY OF  

200-600 J/KG MLCAPE WHICH RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFTING ACROSS  

PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY HELP TO KEEP WINDS  

BACKED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE  

THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN  

ISOLATED TORNADO. A BIT HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE  

THREAT WILL EXTEND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH HI- RES  

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND AS THUNDERSTORMS  

APPROACH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THIS EVENING. FOR NOW AM MOST  

CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A PONTIAC TO WOODSTOCK  

LINE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FARTHER EAST.  

 

DEUBELBEISS  

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