Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Unlikely that activity makes it that far east and is severe. I'm leaning that way as well...fizzling somewhere around us or just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 I haven't had much interest in this event being on the eastern flanks of the threat area. But now that the sun is making a bit of an appearance, temps rising in the mid 60's, and healthy looking radar returns firing in IN, I'm officially at least mildly interested. Only mildly because I've seen this scenario many times in the warm season, where the good stuff fires up in IN in the late afternoon and by the time it reaches us after dark it's a 30 min windy rain storm and a clap of thunder or two. Your about to get a watch: THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IND AND INTO WESTERN OH THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER SOUTHERN IND...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KNOTS. THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGE SWATH OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM AR/MO INTO IND. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATES THAT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS... ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF WW 560 BEFORE 22Z. THEREFORE NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sun trying to break out here, but clouds dominate the sky. Dewpoint slipped back a little here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Svr warning for Indy metro now with incoming line. 60 mph gusts. But second round still expected for later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Only a couple hours or so left of sunlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 That storm that just formed SE of Jackson, MS looks to have pretty good potential if it can stay discrete. EDIT: TOR warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 That storm that just formed SE of Jackson, MS looks to have pretty good potential if it can stay discrete. EDIT: TOR warned. In my opinion, that's the best candidate for first tornado of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Your about to get a watch: THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IND AND INTO WESTERN OH THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER SOUTHERN IND...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KNOTS. THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGE SWATH OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM AR/MO INTO IND. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATES THAT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS... ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF WW 560 BEFORE 22Z. THEREFORE NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. Looks like CMH might barely make it into the eventual watch box if at all...biggest threat is clearly west of us, cincy, dayton,....for us it all depends on how long the favorable environment can maintain itself and how far away from the main low. That and the timing are definitely not in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HRRR is pretty decent parameter wise in the area the Cells in MO are popping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Also, supercell north of Memphis starting to look pretty good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 In my opinion, that's the best candidate for first tornado of the day. Might be the longest track too if it can touch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Still a lot of couplets and meso vorticies in the line in C-S. Indiana. Most defined one is just east of Nashville, IN currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How about that cell NW of Memphis near Etowah, Arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How about that cell NW of Memphis near Etowah, Arkansas? Newest velocity scan has some really impressive inflow. It was looking impressive earlier, but apparently just wasn't feeling it at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Line west of Angola is picking up steam, suprised it isn't warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The lack of conformed tornadoes so far today today is surprising so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The one east of Jackson, MS means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tornado warning near Shady Grove, KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Dry slot is almost past Chicago, so we can start rebuilding our instability, storms starting to get warned in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The lack of conformed tornadoes so far today today is surprising so far... ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WEST TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559... VALID 232049Z - 232215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER EASTERN AR...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF PAH - BYH - WEST OF MEM. SEVERAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE HAVE DEVELOPED PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL /UP TO BASEBALL SIZE/. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THESE STORMS...AND SO FAR THE TORNADO RISK HAS BEEN LIMITED. THE VAD PROFILE AT MEM SHOWS INTENSE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES NOW OVER 700 M2/S2. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S INTO WEST TN IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER WEST TN AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 559 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING MORE OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTHWEST AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 242 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 242 PM CST FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH STRATIFORM RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF KDSM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU AND A FEW CB/S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING OUT OF KDVN SHOWED AROUND 250 J/KG SBCAPE WITH FAIRLY INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN COINCIDENT WITH THE CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG MLCAPE WHICH RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY HELP TO KEEP WINDS BACKED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A BIT HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH HI- RES MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THIS EVENING. FOR NOW AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A PONTIAC TO WOODSTOCK LINE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FARTHER EAST. DEUBELBEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 now a tornado warning at Blytheville AR, next to the MO bootheel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Suns starting to come out here FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Another nice couplet between Fairland and Franklin, IN a short time ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Meso vorticies and couplets galore west of Indy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Deepening nicely OTTUMWA PTSUNNY 59 53 80 S14 28.96F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storms forming near the AR/LA/MS borders would have seemingly the best near term shot. STP 4-6 in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like Minuteman Disaster on tvnweather.com has a view of at least a funnel cloud in the far distance. He's on the cell that just went tornado warned in west Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 possible tornado on the ground Clarksdale MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Radar looks very similar to this morning's hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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