JacobChgo19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like storms are starting to fire in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Up to 56°/55° here. 0.59" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like storms are starting to fire in MO. Looks more like a developing CU field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 zzzzzzzzzzzzz yep, TN valley is dead, and the Southeastern Forum is really the "North Carolina Snow Flurries" forum, God how I hate regional forums. Yeah, I've been trying follow this and as many people are talking about possible pattern changes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Even though we have some storms nearby right now, tonight looks better for actual severe closer to the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sun is out...some nice patches of blue to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Well, SGF does have SBCAPE of 1175 J/kg, so mesoanalysis may be lowballing. Mixed layer CAPE is only about half that. Note the 700-500 mb lapse rate...that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 overturned semi north of decker in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Surface low down to 982 mb in southern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Memphis area: surface wind: 14 knots. vertical wind profiler at NQA radar: 100kt at 15000-18000 ft. difference: 86kt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Initiation occurring in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storms in Northern Indiana just went Severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Initiation occurring in Missouri. radar suck zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 No tornadoes reported so far today. That may soon change. 62 wind reports per SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR...MO...IL...IND...KY...TN...AL...MS... ..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA TO SWRN OH ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO SRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO NRN LOWER MI... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ..DISCUSSION A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO 1630Z OUTLOOK...1) INCREASE SEVERE PROBS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER 2) INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. 1. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CU FIELD AHEAD OF SFC LOW FROM THE IA/MO BORDER...SWD INTO CNTRL MO. WHILE LIGHTNING HAS YET TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS CONVECTION DEEPENS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION AND A PLUME OF STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NUDGING INTO CNTRL MO. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE A BIT FARTHER NW THAN EARLIER INDICATED. 2. OUTFLOW IS SURGING EWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS OVER SC. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVANCING NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE MDT RISK...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL AR...NEWD INTO WRN KY. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...IN LINE WITH EARLIER THOUGHTS. ..DARROW.. 12/23/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looking good for Kentucky and Ohio later today with the currently evolving QLCS. Low level shear is forecast to be very strong...I'm actually extremely surprised at the northern extent of the ENH risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storms in Northern Indiana are trying there hardest to intensify, line seems to be expanding. damage reported in Marshall and Fulton Co. In. And this isn't even with all the instability yet. I wouldn't be suprised to see a watch sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looking good for Kentucky and Ohio later today with the currently evolving QLCS. Low level shear is forecast to be very strong...I'm actually extremely surprised at the northern extent of the ENH risk area. I do think Ohio looks good right now with instability. At last check Cincinatti was 67 degrees with a 65 dew point and hasn't seen any rain today to stabilize the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 No Watch... Yet, due to lack of instability right now: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0155 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IND...NWRN OH...AND SRN LOWER MICONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 231955Z - 232130ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A LINE OFFORCED CONVECTION MOVING EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DUE TO THEVERY LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY ATTHIS TIME.DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF ASHORTWAVE TROUGH...A LINE OF SHALLOW...FORCED CONVECTION HASDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IND AND FAR SRN LOWER MI. WHILEKINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS NRNIND...NWRN OH...AND SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE LINE...A VERY MARGINALTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD AREA...WITHMUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG PER RAP MESOANALYSIS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESSAND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THENEXT SEVERAL HOURS EVEN WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...IT REMAINSUNCLEAR WHETHER INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THIS LINEOF CONVECTION TO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLYDAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.AT THIS TIME...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY...MAINLY DUE TO THE LACKOF STRONGER INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storms in Northern Indiana are trying there hardest to intensify, line seems to be expanding. damage reported in Marshall and Fulton Co. In. And this isn't even with all the instability yet. I wouldn't be suprised to see a watch sooner than later. Looks like we may get socked in with rain all evening however sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Temps/dews have slipped a bit here...bit of a delayed reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 New Tornado Watch in Southeast Iowa, Western Illinois, Northeast Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 New Tornado Watch in Southeast Iowa, Western Illinois, Northeast Missouri What are the probabilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 New Tornado Watch in Southeast Iowa, Western Illinois, Northeast Missouri Whatever comes from that way, gives me hope for tonight. What are the probabilities? 50/20 TOR 30/10 WIND 40/30 HAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 TOR warning just west of Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Whatever comes from that way, gives me hope for tonight. 50/20 TOR 30/10 WIND 40/30 HAIL Unlikely that activity makes it that far east and is severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Unlikely that activity makes it that far east and is severe. Might make it as far as Lake Michigan, hopefuly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Unlikely that activity makes it that far east and is severe. GRR Disagreees with you: ISSUED AT 255 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING IN AT THIS TIME. CONSIDERING THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW ELEVATED CAPE ENVIRONMENT...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS THE LINE APPROACHING JACKSON AND BATTLE CREEK WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONGER WINDS. THESE CELLS COULD MAKE A RUN AT LANSING BY 6 PM. DRY SLOT MOVES IN BY 02Z. WE MAINTAIN CAPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND FIELDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE CELLS DEVELOPING IN MO AT THIS TIME SEEM TO BE ALONG THE FRONT THAT HEADS OUR WAY TO NIGHT. WE SHOULD MONITOR THIS REGION AND INTO ILLINOIS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. VERY LOW TOPPED TRW/RW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME IS FROM 03Z TO 07Z. A SIMILAR EVENT BACK IN DEC 23 2007 DID PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WITH NO LIGHTNING. THUS A SEVERE RISK STILL EXISTS. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WE MAY NEAR WARNING CRITERIA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. They feel once the dry slot moves in it will boost up the Instability to cause an event a la 12/23/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looking good for Kentucky and Ohio later today with the currently evolving QLCS. Low level shear is forecast to be very strong...I'm actually extremely surprised at the northern extent of the ENH risk area. I haven't had much interest in this event being on the eastern flanks of the threat area. But now that the sun is making a bit of an appearance, temps rising in the mid 60's, and healthy looking radar returns firing in IN, I'm officially at least mildly interested. Only mildly because I've seen this scenario many times in the warm season, where the good stuff fires up in IN in the late afternoon and by the time it reaches us after dark it's a 30 min windy rain storm and a clap of thunder or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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