Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like the show is starting down south new Tornado Watch just issued for parts of TX OK LA AR till 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I normally don't criticize SPC but that was a bad outlook, especially considering the magnitude of the day. I mean I'd love to know what they are seeing that would warrant staying where they are when a moderate risk looks very needed. Also that hail map is downright awful. They expect convection vigorous enough for tornadoes near Chicago but not vigorous enough to produce hail? It just doesn't make a bit of damn sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Man that's crazy...looks like some pockets of ~1800 in northeastern Missouri. Yep, pretty close. Large area of ML cape over 1500j/kg. Seems a bit high but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I normally don't criticize SPC but that was a bad outlook, especially considering the magnitude of the day. I mean I'd love to know what they are seeing that would warrant staying where they are when a moderate risk looks very needed. Also that hail map is downright awful. They expect convection vigorous enough for tornadoes near Chicago but not vigorous enough to produce hail? It just doesn't make a bit of damn sense. I could see the lack of hail probs if instability was weaker/mid level lapse rates were crappy, but it doesn't appear that will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HRRR is just nothing but bad news for the south. 4-5+ STP in the vicinity of the cells in Arkansas. Also gotta watch for the other cells that pop ahead of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 To be honest even the Sig Tor hatched area is kinda meh compared to what it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HRRR now bringing 2000j/kg into IL by 3pm Cant even fit all the cells in this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I could see the lack of hail probs if instability was weaker/mid level lapse rates were crappy, but it doesn't appear that will be the case. Yeah I just don't get it, and to be honest, ever since that Enhanced Risk category was added, they have been reluctant to move much higher. Look at the events we have had that were easy Moderate Risks before that ended up being just Enhanced Risks. I liked the idea beforehand but the execution has been terrible. Almost makes you wonder what it would take to go to a High Risk these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 There are a lot of things that don't make sense about that. First of all, the expansion of the D2 ENH earlier was basically setting up a moderate in this one. Secondly, if there are supercells in that 10% area, they will be capable of sig tornadoes, I don't understand why that hatched region isn't larger. I also don't get why the wind probability isn't hatched with the wind fields here. The hail part has already been mentioned so I won't go into that, but I really don't see the redeeming value in this thing at all, especially with the timing of this thing right before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Curious to see what Dr. Forbes says tomorrow. I can see him raising it to an 8... 9 might be stretching it based on what other events had a 9. I'd crap myself if he went to a 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Curious to see what Dr. Forbes says tomorrow. I can see him raising it to an 8... 9 might be stretching it based on what other events had a 9. I'd crap myself if he went to a 10. He will not go to a 9 or 10 without a mod/high risk from SPC. His numbers generally follow the SPC outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Curious to see what Dr. Forbes says tomorrow. I can see him raising it to an 8... 9 might be stretching it based on what other events had a 9. I'd crap myself if he went to a 10. Oh, I'll evacuate if he goes 10 over my house. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like surface low is about 986 mb in the OK panhandle/southwest KS area. This would be just slightly deeper than the 00z NAM/GFS had for this time (1-2 mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 He will not go to a 9 or 10 without a mod/high risk from SPC. His numbers generally follow the SPC outlooks. This is true. But he went 7 today despite SPC staying at enhanced. From my observations, I've noticed 7-8 is associated with moderates... 9-10 with high risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 for reference day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif "oh, I'm dreaming... of a white Christmas" Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tornado Watch issued at about 06z, valid for Texarkana, Longview TX, Shreveport LA. Probabilities 30%/20% for the tornado categories. SPC mesoanalysis has the supercell composite up to 12 at Texarkana right now. A few new cells popping up around Shreveport. MUCAPE is apparently 1000-2000 J/kg even at this hour of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 06Z 4K NAM showing significantly more instability so far in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Things are starting to get active... 2 active severe warnings now. One report of 1.25" hail near New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storm south of New Orleans is trying to rotate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storm south of New Orleans is trying to rotate. According to mesoanalysis, those storms are elevated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 According to mesoanalysis, those storms are elevated Wow, apparently it doesn't matter. They both went tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Forecast sounding off the 06Z 4km NAM near Princeton, IL ahead of discrete convection.Impressive parameters on this run to say the least. 400+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH.How unfortunate this is 6pm..Here's the 2-5km updraft helicity track. One of the more aggressive ones from previous runs. This continues bit more northeast the following hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 RAP and HRRR are just getting more and more interesting. It's a nice switch for the potential to increase as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah, the Sim. Radar are showing fun for all tonight, embedded tornadoes will be the largest threat for tornadoes for us sadly, although supercells could follow in the second wave. Also, the WPC has crowned the NAM/ECWMF as king: 00Z NAM/GFS INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF AND PREFERENCESLOW PRESSURE OVER THE S. PLAINS...PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWFCONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE EACH WHILE THE GFS HASTRENDED TOWARD THEM BUT REMAINS TOO DEEP...ALTHOUGH ITS MOISTUREFIELDS ARE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF. THE SPREAD HAS ALSONARROWED WITH THE STRONGEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE FOR THENAM/ECMWF AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 6z NAM really likes areas along and east of I-55 in IL and in to W IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Interesting supercells fired up NE of Dallas. Too far from any radar site to look at velocites for rotation, but WSV3 is saying this is rotating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 New tornado watch, 60/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Moderate risk at 13z Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Just to put it out there... Also 15% hatched on tornado probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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