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December 23-27th Storm System's/Severe Weather Potential


HillsdaleMIWeather

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I normally don't criticize SPC but that was a bad outlook, especially considering the magnitude of the day. I mean I'd love to know what they are seeing that would warrant staying where they are when a moderate risk looks very needed. Also that hail map is downright awful. They expect convection vigorous enough for tornadoes near Chicago but not vigorous enough to produce hail? It just doesn't make a bit of damn sense.

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I normally don't criticize SPC but that was a bad outlook, especially considering the magnitude of the day. I mean I'd love to know what they are seeing that would warrant staying where they are when a moderate risk looks very needed. Also that hail map is downright awful. They expect convection vigorous enough for tornadoes near Chicago but not vigorous enough to produce hail? It just doesn't make a bit of damn sense.

 

 

I could see the lack of hail probs if instability was weaker/mid level lapse rates were crappy, but it doesn't appear that will be the case. 

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I could see the lack of hail probs if instability was weaker/mid level lapse rates were crappy, but it doesn't appear that will be the case. 

Yeah I just don't get it, and to be honest, ever since that Enhanced Risk category was added, they have been reluctant to move much higher. Look at the events we have had that were easy Moderate Risks before that ended up being just Enhanced Risks. I liked the idea beforehand but the execution has been terrible. Almost makes you wonder what it would take to go to a High Risk these days.

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There are a lot of things that don't make sense about that. First of all, the expansion of the D2 ENH earlier was basically setting up a moderate in this one. Secondly, if there are supercells in that 10% area, they will be capable of sig tornadoes, I don't understand why that hatched region isn't larger. I also don't get why the wind probability isn't hatched with the wind fields here. The hail part has already been mentioned so I won't go into that, but I really don't see the redeeming value in this thing at all, especially with the timing of this thing right before Christmas.

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Curious to see what Dr. Forbes says tomorrow. I can see him raising it to an 8... 9 might be stretching it based on what other events had a 9.

 

I'd crap myself if he went to a 10.

 

He will not go to a 9 or 10 without a mod/high risk from SPC. His numbers generally follow the SPC outlooks.

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Curious to see what Dr. Forbes says tomorrow. I can see him raising it to an 8... 9 might be stretching it based on what other events had a 9.

I'd crap myself if he went to a 10.

Oh, I'll evacuate if he goes 10 over my house.

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

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Tornado Watch issued at about 06z, valid for Texarkana, Longview TX, Shreveport LA. Probabilities 30%/20% for the tornado categories. SPC mesoanalysis has the supercell composite up to 12 at Texarkana right now.  A few new cells popping up around Shreveport. MUCAPE is apparently 1000-2000 J/kg even at this hour of the night.

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Forecast sounding off the 06Z 4km NAM near Princeton, IL ahead of discrete convection.
Impressive parameters on this run to say the least. 400+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH.
How unfortunate this is 6pm..nam4km_2015122306_018_41.52--89.34.png

Here's the 2-5km updraft helicity track. One of the more aggressive ones from previous runs. This continues bit more northeast the following hour.

nam4kmCGP_con_uphly_018.gif

 

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Yeah, the Sim. Radar are showing fun for all tonight, embedded tornadoes will be the largest threat for tornadoes for us sadly, although supercells could follow in the second wave.

 

Also, the WPC has crowned the NAM/ECWMF as king:

 

00Z NAM/GFS INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF AND PREFERENCES

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE S. PLAINS...

PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE EACH WHILE THE GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THEM BUT REMAINS TOO DEEP...ALTHOUGH ITS MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF. THE SPREAD HAS ALSO
NARROWED WITH THE STRONGEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE FOR THE
NAM/ECMWF AS WELL.

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